UF Baseball: Can the Gators channel their inner Fresno State?

If we simply go by the won-loss record, then the Florida Gators are nothing more than party crashers, in Omaha to play the final two games of the season at the College World Series. Florida is 34-28, easily the worst record among the eight teams in the field, but there is something about this team that makes the other seven teams nervous.

Very nervous.

The Gators have gone 8-3 since the final weekend series of the regular season. In NCAA regional and super regional play, they’re 6-1. The Gators played three consecutive elimination games to win the Stillwater Regional, then last weekend beat Clemson two straight on the road to become the first team to claim its spot in the College World Series.

So here they are, a team that nobody is really sure about, with a legitimate shot to win the College World Series. In many respects, the Gators are reminiscent of the 2008 Fresno State team that won the College World Series. The Bulldogs were 33-27 in the regular season, 2-3 in their final five regular season games heading into the Western Athletic Conference Tournament in Ruston, Louisiana, where they shocked everyone by going 4-0. Until the Gators came along, Fresno State’s 37-27 record entering NCAA play was the worst of any team to survive the regional and super regional gauntlet to make it to the College World Series.

With an RPI of 89, Fresno State was the No. 4 seed at the Long Beach Regional, but the Bulldogs went 3-1 to advance to Tempe to face national No. 3 seed Arizona State, which blew away the field to win its own regional. The Sun Devils wasted Fresno State, 12-4, in the first game of the super regional, but Fresno State outslugged Arizona State, 8-6 and 12-9 to claim its spot in Omaha with a 41-29 record.

The eight survivors of super regional play who made it to Omaha: No. 1 Miami (52-9); No. 2 North Carolina (51-12); No. 4 Florida State (54-12); No. 6 Rice (42-13); No. 7 LSU (43-16-1) and No. 8 Georgia (35-21-1). Stanford (39-22-2) and Fresno State (41-29) were the other two.

In Omaha, Fresno State blasted No. 6 Rice, 17-5, in the first game, followed that up with a 5-3 win over No. 2 seed North Carolina and after losing to UNC 4-3, beat the Tar Heels 6-1 to win their bracket. In the championship series against Georgia, Fresno State lost the first game, 7-6, then won the next two, 19-6 and 6-1, to claim the second national championship in school history (softball, 1998).

In Omaha, Fresno State hit 14 home runs and scored 62. Outfielder Steve Detwiler, playing with a torn tendon in his thumb that required surgery three days after the championship game, hit two homers and drove in all six runs in the final game against Georgia.

For a team that had average hitting and so-so pitching, the Bulldogs won six elimination games. They were the team no one gave a chance to win the College World Series, but they were the last team standing.

So the question today as the unseeded Gators take on No. 3 Texas A&M (49-13) in the 7 p.m. game (ESPN) is can Florida channel its inner Fresno State to become that team that defies all the odds to win the national championship? As preposterous as that may seem, at least one expert believes Florida could emerge as the national champ.

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN writes: “Florida was an inconsistent team this year that started regionals as a 3-seed, but I have the Gators right there with rivals Florida State and Tennessee as the well-balanced teams that are hot at the right time. With Florida alone in Bracket 2 while FSU and Tennessee are in Bracket 1, I have the Gators going to the MCWS finals.”

The first and obvious key to the Gators making it through their bracket to the best-of-three championship series is to win game one against Texas A&M. Florida shouldn’t be intimidated by the Aggies. Back on St. Patrick’s Day weekend, the Gators took two of three from the Aggies. The Aggies’ only win that weekend was a 10-6 decision in which they knocked UF starter Liam Peterson out of the box in the third when they hit back-to-back homers by Gavin Grahovac and Jace LaViolette.

What sealed the deal that day was the combined relief pitching of Evan Aschenbeck and Josh Stewart, who silenced Florida’s bats after the Gators knocked Aggie starter Tanner Jones out of the box. The Gators know they should have won that game, but it was a loss like so many others they would experience in the regular season.

Florida beat the Aggies in the opener, 8-6, behind a pair of home runs by Jac Caglianone and shutdown pitching in relief by Brandon Neely, who allowed one hit over three innings to preserve the UF win. In game three, Caglianone gave the Gators 5-1/3 strong innings before Ryan Slater, Neely and Luke McNeillie combined to hold the Aggies scoreless over the final 3-2/3.

Over the three games, the Gators hit eight home runs as they handed the Aggies their first two losses of the season.

When the two teams face off tonight, the Aggies will be pitching Ryan Prager, who the Gators knocked out of the box in game one back in Gainesville. Caglianone hit two homers off Prager, who only got as far as one out in the third before UF knocked him out of the box. It will be Peterson going for the Gators. It’s an interesting matchup because Prager has rebounded from that game with UF and brings an 8-2 record with a 2.51 ERA into the game tonight. Peterson has been Florida’s most consistent pitcher since the Georgia series but his 3-4 record and 5.97 ERA pale in comparison.

Can the Gators be the 2024 equivalent of Fresno State, which just happened to get hot at the right time, proving it’s not how you start the season but how you end it. The Gators were 28-27 when they began NCAA play so they’re a hot team right now.

The question for UF is the same thing that it has been all season: pitching. Do the Gators have enough? The answer is yes if they can win their first two games. If Florida loses game one, the Gators will have to win four straight to win their bracket. If the Gators are 2-0 out of the gate then they will need to win one out of two to advance to the championship finals.

Everyone is aware of Caglianone: .411, 33 HR, 68 RBI and 5-2 on the mound. It is imperative that he comes up big in Omaha. He is the best player in the college game and certainly the most feared hitter. He can carry the team on his broad shoulders.

There are three wild cards: (1) Ashton Wilson; (2) Brandon Neely; and (3) Pierce Coppola.

Since the Georgia series, Wilson has gone 16-45 with two homers and 11 RBI. He didn’t play against the Aggies so his emergence as the protector who hits behind Caglianone has been an enormous boost. Wilson can’t strike out. If he is hitting the ball hard and putting it in play, the Aggies will have to pitch to Caglianone.

Neely has evolved into the closer that everyone thought he would be in the last few games. It has been a rocky season for Neely, but his performance against Nebraska in the Stillwater Regional and then going four innings on consecutive days against Clemson make him the top option for Kevin O’Sullivan once the Gators get to the sixth inning.

If the Gators win their first two games, Coppola becomes the game three starter. He is 0-4 with a 9.16 ERA but that is a bit misleading since he has been pitching his way back into shape after missing the previous two season. If Coppola can give the Gators four-plus quality innings could do the unthinkable and emerge from their bracket.

Reality says Florida has the toughest road to the championship series, but this is a team like that one from Fresno State that keeps defying the odds. We shouldn’t be the least bit surprised at anything they do from here on out.

Friday’s scores

No. 4 North Carolina (48-14) 3, No. 12 Virginia (46-16) 2

No. 1 Tennessee (56-12) 12, No. 8 Florida State (47-16) 2

Today’s games

2 p.m. No. 2 Kentucky (43-14) vs. No. 10 North Carolina State (38-21)

7 p.m. No. 3 Texas A&M (49-13) vs. FLORIDA (34-28)