Uncertainty Is the One Certain Thing for the Florida Gators
Uncertainty is the one certain thing the Florida Gators can count on in this season of complete and total uncertainty. Yet, even with all the things that have gone sideways to create an ongoing "what’s next" atmosphere, almost every goal the Gators had when the season began back on September 26 remains attainable. Uncertainty might be Florida’s constant companion but it hasn’t altered what can be achieved.
Go figure.
Now, with the season cranking up after a two-week Covid-19 caused hiatus, uncertainty remains the key word. How many players will head ball coach Dan Mullen have at his disposal Saturday? The SEC says the Gators have to have 53 available and Mullen feels certain there will be at least that many available, but even if Florida can dress out enough players it only takes one or two key absentees to throw a serious wrench into the works. Mullen can prep and plan for most anything but the virus is unpredictable. Some get it and they’re fine in two days. With others it lingers and still others get sick and stay sick for quite awhile. When the Gators take the field Saturday with however many healthy players Mullen has at his disposal, how many will be fully recovered and how many will be physically run down to the point their ability to contribute is limited?
Then there are questions about the offense and defense for which we have to wait until the Gators take the field before we have answers. For example, what about the offense? It was humming along (42.3 points and 464 yards per game) and operating at the highest level of any UF offense since 2008 when the virus forced postponement of the LSU game (rescheduled for December 12) and forced a re-boot of the entire schedule. The Gators went 10 days without practicing when football operations were suspended prior to the postponement of the LSU game. Will they be able to find enough traction to get the offense firing on all cylinders against Missouri?
Prior to the shutdown, there was exquisite timing between Kyle Trask (71.8% completions, 9.7 yards per attempt, 14 TDPs) and a bevy of receivers led by Kyle Pitts (17-274, 7 TDs) and Kadarius Toney (18-237, 4 TDs). Trask could throw with confidence knowing if he got it close to the target he would have a receiver there to catch it. Timing is everything, especially in the Southeastern Conference where it seems every defensive back runs like a gazelle and a split second usually means the difference between a big play or something bad. When the Gators take the field against Mizzou will Trask and his receivers still be on the same page? Will he throw accurately? Will his receivers run precision routes and see the ball all the way into their hands?
The offensive line, shaky for so much of 2019, played well in the first three games (only four sacks allowed; Gators were averaging 7.61 yards per snap) and was just beginning to get the kind of cohesion that is necessary to dominate. Brett Heggie at center was playing the best football of his UF career. Grad transfer Stewart Reese was looking rather beastly and left tackle Stone Forsythe was playing with purpose and consistency. The entire O-line was improving game-by-game but O-lines require reps in both practice and games to maintain their timing and efficiency. That was interrupted. Rumors abound that the virus hit the O-line hard. If one or more starters either can’t play or they’re limited, will the backups be ready to do the next man up drill? Will they be able to protect Trask or open holes so Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis can carry the ball and get to the second level?
Can the defense, which at its current pace will go down in Florida history as one of the worst (Gators are allowing 33.3 points and 495 yards per game), find its sea legs and start to get stops? Kyree Campbell, who missed the first three games for non-virus issues will be back at nose tackle. He is a presence on the D-line. Is he the steadying influence that has been missing? Can middle linebacker Ventrell Miller (averaging 10 tackles per game) find some help? Can Brad Stewart become that leader in the secondary that has been AWOL through the first three games.
The talent is there and defensive coordinator Todd Grantham and his staff haven’t forgotten how to coach so maybe the scheme needs tweaking and some personnel need to be shuffled. There was talk during the two weeks away that Grantham would simplify things, that maybe the schemes were a bit too complicated for a team that didn’t have a spring practice. Will a simplified scheme equate to stops on third down (Gators are allowing conversions 58.7% of the time and that ranks 98th out of 100 teams that have played a game so far)? Can the defense begin playing up to its potential or will it force the Gators to win every game in shootout fashion?
Those are just a few of the questions for which Dan Mullen must find answers and he doesn’t have nearly enough time to contemplate what has to be done. At this point, with the Mizzou game looming followed by six consecutive weeks without an open date, Mullen must be wondering if there is enough bubble gum and baling wire to hold things together. This virus has thrown all conventional wisdom out the window. Mullen is dealing with a fluid situation that changes daily.
And yet with all this unparalleled uncertainty, it remains possible for the Gators to win the SEC East and make it to Atlanta, knowing fully well that a win there will propel them into the College Football Playoff semifinals for the very first time. That much is certain. There is no smooth path to get there, but getting there isn’t an impossible task, just one that is very, very difficult.
The loss to Texas A&M back on October 10 eliminated the goal of an undefeated season, but it didn’t alter the goal of winning the SEC East. The Gators knew all along that the road to Atlanta goes through Jacksonville, which means beating Georgia. On the same day the Gators lost on the last play of the game to the Aggies, Georgia was stomped by Alabama in Tuscaloosa. With one loss apiece, both Florida and Georgia know what will be at stake when they meet in Jacksonville on November 7.
Getting to Atlanta will not be an easy task. Whereas the Gators have been hit hard by the virus, Georgia has yet to have even one player test positive. Either they are doing something very right or else they’re just lucky and biding their time until the virus makes its way to Athens. Should Georgia make it to Jacksonville having experienced no problems with the virus, the Bulldogs should have an advantage in terms of conditioning and strength. That isn’t to say Georgia can’t be beaten – by the time Alabama was finished with them, the Bulldogs looked like they had been assaulted and left in a ditch – because they can but whatever advantages the Gators had might be compromised due to Covid-19. Still, if the Gators arrive in Jacksonville with the roster back to full strength and the rust from missing those two weeks of games shaken off, this is a winnable game. Georgia might have a great defense, but that great defense was carved up and dissected by Alabama.
Conventional wisdom tells us the Gators might be sloppy, out of shape and gasping for breath Saturday against Missouri, but Las Vegas, which generally has a fairly good handle on things, likes Florida by 13 points. Can a sloppy, out of shape and gasping for breath team beat Missouri by a couple of touchdowns? Can the Gators pick up where they left off offensively against a Mizzou defense that gave up more than 400 yards in each of its first three games only to find itself and hold Kentucky to 10 points and 145 total yards last week? Can the Florida defense force some punts? In three games opponents have only punted eight times.
What is critical for Florida is to beat Missouri whether it’s a sloppy white knuckler, a shootout or a blowout. In the immortal words of Al Davis, “Just win baby!” Just win. That’s all that matters this weekend. Emerge with a 3-1 record and live to fight another day.
A win won’t quell the concerns about this team but a win advances the cause. The virus shot holes in all the what could have been scenarios long ago. Right now it’s all about surviving and moving on to whatever is next, which, in this case, is Georgia. For the Gators to have a chance to keep one of their most important goals of all – getting to Atlanta – intact, then they have to go into the Georgia game with a level playing field. A loss to Missouri would mean the Gators have to beat Georgia next week and then hope and pray someone on Georgia’s remaining schedule (very weak after UF) gets lucky.
The better option is for Florida to beat Missouri, then beat Georgia next week to shift all the pressure onto Georgia’s shoulders. It is do-able. The Gators can beat Missouri and that will give them a shot at knocking off Georgia and taking the SEC East for the first time since 2016.
Starting with the shutdown of all sports last spring, Covid-19 has taken its toll on the Florida Gators. Three potential national championships – gymnastics, baseball and softball – were stopped dead in their tracks and spring football, which is so essential to player and team development was cancelled. In the months since, the Gators have dealt with nearly 70 football players and several coaches testing positive, the postponement of the LSU game and a rescheduling that altered the remainder of the season. Adversity has stuck to the Gators like superglue yet they’re still standing, still with their eyes on the Atlanta target.
These next two weeks will go a long way toward telling us just how well the Gators manage adversity. The seven remaining games on the schedule starting with Saturday’s game with Missouri offer plenty of uncertainty. The one key certainty in all this chaos is the possibility of making it to Atlanta. In a season in which it seems each new week brings a brand new speedbump, uncertainty is the one certain thing the Gators can count on.
Comments