When it comes to UF-Georgia are you an optimist or a pessimist?

For the Gators to upset Georgia the defense is going to have to play a near perfect game (Gator Bait Photo by Chris Spears)

The eternal optimist looks at this week’s open date and thinks the Florida Gators have a chance to prepare an ambush for their annual showdown with No. 2 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC) next Saturday in Jacksonville. The optimist looks at how Florida’s defense improved substantially after the last open date and how it has continued to improve ever since. The optimist also takes note of how the Gators hung 48 points on the same Kentucky Wildcats who blew a chance to beat Georgia in Lexington back on October 14. Optimists dream of quarterbacks like DJ Lagway who can throw laser-guided smart bombs to receivers like Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike and running backs like Jadan Baugh who can run over, under, around and through that same Kentucky defense that all but stiffed Georgia’s running game in that 13-12 loss.

The eternal pessimist sees the open date merely as a delay of the inevitable, that Georgia is going to lower the boom on the Gators for the sixth time in the last seven years. A pessimist sees that Florida has yet to win a game against a team with a winning record (Samford, Mississippi State, UCF and Kentucky are a combined 10-17) and that Florida’s three losses are at the hands of ranked teams that have a combined record of 19-2. The pessimist sees Georgia as a very pissed off team that ate up and spit out Texas in Austin and believes if the Bulldogs can hold the Texas offense to 15 points and 259 yards imagine what they’ll do to Florida.

Optimists aren’t about to predict a Florida victory, but they do expect a better effort out of the Gators than the ones they saw in losses to Miami and Texas A&M. Optimists believe Florida’s effort against Tennessee followed by the rout of Kentucky are far better indicators of potential success against Georgia than the losses to the Canes and Aggies.

Pessimists see an angry Georgia team that is just now rounding into form. They look at Georgia and believe the Bulldogs are a far better team than Miami, Texas A&M or Tennessee. They expect Kirby Smart to dial up something special that will daze and confuse Lagway and render Florida’s improved offensive line useless. Without protection and some exotic packages, they don’t think Lagway will have enough time to throw the ball to Badger or Dike. They figure that if Texas, which was running on everyone, averaged only 1.07 per carry against the Georgia defense then how will Baugh and those talented UF running backs succeed. The pessimist also believes Carson Beck will light up Florida’s secondary and Trevor Etienne will exact a measure of revenge on his former teammates.

Somewhere between optimism and pessimism are the following realities: (1) The Gators are better than they were when the season began on both sides of the football; (2) Florida’s offensive line has allowed only 10 sacks, eight in the losses to Miami, Texas A&M and Tennessee; (3) Florida’s wide receivers are fast enough and Lagway is accurate enough throwing the deep ball that no one on the remaining UF schedule is going to be able to load up the box; (4) the defense isn’t giving up chunk plays on a regular basis since the first open date; and (5) having stomped the same Kentucky Wildcats that should have beaten Georgia and gone toe-to-toe with Tennessee in Neyland Stadium, the Gators should take the field in Jacksonville with a reasonable amount of confidence.

Now, only the most optimistic among us is going to predict a Florida upset, but stranger things have happened. Is it likely? No. Would it shock the college football world? Absolutely, but who would have ever predicted that Vanderbilt could light up Alabama for 40 points and walk away with a win? That happened and Alabama hasn’t been the same since. Based on what we saw of Kentucky at The Swamp, do you find it mind boggling that the Wildcats should have beaten Georgia (13-12 loss) in Lexington and would have if HBC Mark Stoops hadn’t played it too conservative? We should also note that Alabama lit up the Georgia defense for 41 points and Mississippi State scored 31.

It is improbable that Florida will beat Georgia next Saturday, but there is a marked difference between improbable and impossible. As unlikely as a Florida upset might be, it’s not completely beyond the realm of possibility.

For the Gators to spring the upset, they’re going to have to play a near perfect game and Georgia is going to have to make some mistakes. Again, a near perfect game from the Gators isn’t an impossibility and lest we forget, Carson Beck, who a lot of folks penciled in as the top Heisman candidate, has thrown more interceptions in seven games (8) than he did in 14 games last year (6).

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 15 Alabama (5-2, 2-2 SEC): This is a College Football Playoff elimination game for both Alabama and Missouri. For Bama to win the game the Tide is going to have to run the football. Alabama has only 263 yards on the ground in the last three combined. Today: No. 21 Missouri (6-1, 2-1 SEC)

Arkansas (4-3, 2-2 SEC): If the Hogs are going to become bowl eligible, today’s road trip to Mississippi State is one of two winnable games remaining on the schedule. The other is Louisiana Tech November 23. Today: at Mississippi State (1-6, 0-4 SEC)

Auburn (2-5, 0-4 SEC): Paul Finebaum doesn’t think Hugh Freeze is going to make it as the Auburn coach. “… I have seen nothing from Hugh Freeze on the actual football field that makes me believe he will make it as the Auburn coach,” Finebaum said on a Birmingham radio show. Today: at Kentucky (3-4, 1-4 SEC)

Kentucky (3-4, 1-4 SEC): Kentucky is a 1.5-point home favorite against Auburn. The Wildcats are coming off their worst defensive performance of the year (476 yards, 48 points vs. Florida). Today: Auburn (2-5, 0-4 SEC)

No. 8 LSU (6-1, 3-0 SEC): LSU brings the No. 8 passing offense in the country (322.4 yards per game) against a pass defense that hasn’t allowed a 300-yard game all season long. Garrett Nussmeier (18 TDPs) has thrown for at least 300 yards in six of the Tigers seven games. Today: at No. 14 Texas A&M (6-1, 4-0 SEC)

Mississippi State (1-6, 0-4 SEC): The Bulldogs have scored 55 points in the last two games. The problem is they’ve been unable to stop anyone. For the season MSU averages 27.4 points per game and gives up 33.3. Today: Arkansas (4-3, 2-2 SEC)

No. 21 Missouri (6-1, 2-1 SEC): Starting QB Brady Cook is considered doubtful for today’s game with Alabama in Tuscaloosa. He has been extremely limited in practice all week. Missouri is a 15.5-point underdog. Today: at No. 15 Alabama (5-2, 2-2 SEC)

Oklahoma (4-3, 1-3 SEC): The injury bug has had a devastating effect on the Sooners. The offensive line and receiving corps have been hit particularly hard, which explains the lack of offense. Oklahoma can't win if the defense doesn't show up in a big way. Today: at No. 18 Ole Miss (5-2, 1-2 SEC)

No. 18 Ole Miss (5-2, 1-2 SEC): Ole Miss isn’t completely out of the playoff picture but they have to run the table to make it. They face an Oklahoma team with a pathetic offense today, but the Sooners are giving up only 325.9 yards per game. Today: Oklahoma (4-3, 1-3 SEC)

No. 5 Texas (6-1, 2-1 SEC): Texas gave up seven sacks last week against Georgia, which came into the game with only 11 on the season. The Longhorns face Vanderbilt in Nashville today. The Commodores have only 14 sacks all season. Today: at No. 25 Vanderbilt (5-2, 2-1 SEC)

No. 14 Texas A&M (6-1, 4-0 SEC): The Aggies have allowed only seven sacks all season. They go against an LSU pass rush that has generated 24 sacks today. LSU allows only 114.86 rushing yards while the Aggies run the ball for 218.57 yards per game, which ranks 12th nationally. Today: No. 8 LSU (6-1, 3-0 SEC)

Vanderbilt (5-2, 2-1 SEC): Alabama was ranked No. 1 when it played Vandy in Nashville. Texas comes in ranked No. 5 today. Do the Commodores have more Nashville magic in them? If they do, they become bowl eligible with four games to go. Who would have ever thought that would happen?: No. 5 Texas (6-1, 2-1 SEC)

AROUND THE STATE

Florida State (1-6, 1-5 ACC): The Seminoles are guaranteed a losing season if they lose to Miami. FSU is a 21-point underdog. Today: at No. 6 Miami (7-0, 3-0 ACC)

No. 6 Miami (7-0, 3-0 ACC): The Hurricanes lead the country in total offense, averaging 577.3 yards per game. QB Cam Ward leads the country in passing yards (2,538) and touchdown passes (24). He’s averaging 10.3 yards per pass attempt. Today: Florida State (1-6, 1-5 ACC)

 UCF (3-4, 1-3 Big 12): UCF has lost three consecutive games and is facing the 11th-ranked team in the country today, yet the Knights are 2.5-point favorites to spring the upset on BYU … The Knights are third in the country in rushing, averaging 280.29 yards per game. BYU give up 141.29 yards per game on the ground. Today: No. 11 BYU (7-0, 4-0 Big 12)