Will Mullen Stay or Will He Leave for the NFL?

What will the next week hold for Dan Mullen and the Florida Gators? Photo Courtesy: SEC

Perhaps the best advice I can give any and all Gator fans is this: Hold your breath and be prepared because the next seven days might be quite the roller coaster ride for your emotions. The reason? The National Football League is going to come calling for Dan Mullen complete with boatloads of money. There is every good reason to believe Mullen will elect to remain at the University of Florida, but there are also compelling reasons to believe he will leave for the No Fun League.

I’ve had conversations with several people, some connected to the Florida football program and some from the NFL. My conclusion is that Dan Mullen would never leave Florida for another college coaching job but if he perceived the right situation in the NFL he would leave.

I know this: Dan Mullen loves the University of Florida. He loves working for Scott Stricklin. He wants to rebuild UF football into the powerhouse that it was when he was Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator and right hand man.

That being said, there are things about college football that he doesn’t like such as the song and dance that has to be done with compliance when it comes to recruiting and being able to build relationships with players on campus. NCAA rules are stifling and more often than not, trivial. When it comes to recruiting, the NCAA severely limits what a head coach can do off campus. Instead of letting the head coach evaluate a player for talent, talk to his teachers, spend time with his parents and know that a kid is capable of fitting in with the standards of the program both academic and within the football culture, the NCAA makes it a crapshoot. Head coaches don’t necessarily know what they’re getting and yet they are responsible for the off-the-field and off-campus actions of their players. Once it’s past football season they have limited contact with players, which often leads to bad decisions and bad situations.

Those are the kind of things that Dan Mullen and most every college football coach in the country hates, but it’s part of the deal. If you’re going to coach college football you have to deal with the stupidity of the NCAA, thus the appeal of the NFL where it’s all about the football.

Remember when Billy Donovan left the University of Florida for the NBA? Billy grew weary of trying to play by the rules when it came to recruiting only to lose player after player to programs who casually disregarded the rulebook. He could have built Florida into a true dynasty program if only a third of the kids he coveted and ultimately lost had chosen to be Gators. When Billy decided to part ways with the Oklahoma City Thunder after five years, he could have easily returned to the college ranks. There are very few athletic directors that wouldn’t have done whatever is necessary to accommodate him. But Billy stayed with the NBA. Why? Because he doesn’t like dealing with the NCAA and all its dumb rules. In the NBA it’s all about the basketball.

This is not to say that Dan Mullen has grown weary enough of the NCAA and the hanky panky that occurs on the recruiting trail to bolt for the NFL, but it is a possibility that we’re going to have to deal with the next seven days and probably every year this time for quite a few years into the future. The moment the NFL regular season concludes tonight, countdown to firing day is T-minus 48 hours. Coaches will be fired and Mullen’s name will be on the lips of most of the owners and general managers who need to find a replacement fast.

The reason Dan Mullen is such a hot ticket item for the NFL this year is quite simple. The NFL is quarterback centric with rules that thoroughly favor the offense and Mullen is perceived quite rightly as a QB guru who is a play calling genius. When the Gators torched Alabama for 46 points it only ratcheted up the interest in bringing Mullen to the league. The NFL people saw what he did with Kyle Trask, a kid who sat the bench three years in high school and his first three years at Florida. With a 2021 draft class for quarterbacks perhaps the strongest it has been since 1983 when the first round included future Hall of Famers John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino, Mullen is perceived a necessity in many circles. The 2021 class will include Trevor Lawrence (Clemson), Justin Fields (Ohio State), Mac Jones (Alabama), Trey Lance (North Dakota State), Zach Wilson (BYU) and Trask, all of whom are projected first rounders.

In the NFL it would be all about developing his quarterback and calling plays, the things that Mullen does best. With the right general manager to do his recruiting for him, Mullen could concentrate on the things he loves to do. If there are college players he believes would be a good fit for his system, he could go on campus during the offseason, watch workouts, conduct personal interviews and spend time in the film room figuring out if this prospect has the kind of football IQ that allows him to absorb things quickly.

Now, none of this is to suggest that Mullen has one foot out the Florida door, but only that the interest from the NFL is there and Mullen will listen. If there is one thing Dan Mullen learned from Urban Meyer during the nine years they spent working together it is to always keep an open ear to listen. He’s going to listen and there is that possibility that if the right situation presents itself, he could leave Florida.

There is also the very good chance that he will say thanks but no thanks. Mullen is determined to restore Florida football to the powerhouse level that it was when he was Meyer’s offensive coordinator. In three years he’s given the Gators three New Years Six bowl games and made Florida relevant once again. The program is definitely headed in the right direction and many of the holes left behind by the previous staff have been patched up.

Still, progress hasn’t occurred at the rate Mullen wants, much less the Gator Nation. Gator fans perceive him to be a poor recruiter who has surrounded himself with equally poor recruiters although most of his assistants are very strong in the area of player development. He brought in Tim Brewster to coach tight ends and bolster recruiting last year. He’s pink slipped corners coach Torian Gray and safeties coach Ron English, neither of which are good recruiters complicated by a 2020 in which the players they coach up had poor seasons.

Much to the chagrin of the Gator Nation, Mullen has retained defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. Grantham and Mullen have a four-year history of working together, three of which produced top 10 defensive units. The 2020 season was a disaster but this Covid-19 year with all its uncertainty was hard on defensive units nationwide. Points and yardage were up dramatically as defensive coordinators were handicapped by a lack of physicality in practice. Very little hitting and not enough tackling in practice showed, particularly with the Gators.

A hard question that has to be asked is did Mullen retain Grantham because he thinks 2020 was an aberration or was it because the cash crunch being felt at Florida and nearly every Division I school not named Texas or Auburn (see the buyouts for Tom Herman and Gus Malzahn) made buying out Grantham’s contract ($3.6 million approximately remaining) infeasible? There is a theory out there that it is easier for Mullen to bolt to the NFL and leave Grantham to UF athletic director Scott Stricklin and whoever becomes the next head coach. If that’s the case then why were Gray and English dismissed?

The next seven days are going to be critical, not only because Mullen will have the opportunity to take an NFL job but because if he stays at Florida, it will be a necessity to bring in two assistants who can not only improve the level of play on the field, but who can get the job done on the recruiting trail. If he is to stay, it is imperative for Mullen to make two outstanding hires if the Gators are to put the 2020 defensive disaster behind them.

There is great anticipation that Mullen could bring in Travaris Robinson to coach the corners. Robinson was Will Muschamp’s corners coach at Florida and defensive coordinator at South Carolina. He’s considered an excellent technician who has great rapport with players and a lights out recruiter. There have been unconfirmed reports that Robinson would also be hired as the co-defensive coordinator, although that might be thought of as a slap in the face of Grantham.

There are other options beside Robinson such as Corey Bell, currently on the UCF staff but the corners coach at Florida in 2017. He’s the former head coach at Miami Edison and well connected in South Florida as a recruiter. He’s capable of coaching either the corners or the safeties.

Two other names that might be strongly considered are former Mississippi State defensive coordinator and current Michigan safeties coach Bob Shoop, whose 2018 defense at MSU was the top unit in the nation. Lending credence to that speculation is the fact that Shoop was coaching players left behind in Starkville by Mullen and Grantham. Another name that has been whispered is former Gator All-SEC safety Daryl Dixon, who coaches the corners for Jeff Monken at Army. Army’s secondary finished second nationally in pass efficiency defense in 2020.

The previously mentioned names have everything to do with speculation, none of which has actually been confirmed. What can be confirmed is the amount of interest in coming to Florida to work for Mullen and Grantham. Some of the coaches showing interest have serious credentials at the highest levels. Mullen will not be cornered into a rush decision. He has plenty of options.

So how will all this play out? A guess here – and it’s only a guess – is that Mullen is going to listen to the NFL offers. I believe he won’t go anywhere that there isn’t a strong GM and an equally impressive player personnel department. Some other things that will be considered are weather, stadium (domed, retractable roof or open air if it’s in a cold clime), draft order and owner. For example, how many coaches have been hired and fired by Dan Snyder in Washington? When you consistently draft early and don’t make the playoffs there is a real problem. Washington is the perfect example.

Unless the situation is whatever is next to perfect, I believe Dan Mullen will say thanks but no thanks. I do believe that he has a strong commitment to restoring the Florida program to a championship level and that his appetite for making the Gators great again was whetted by the close encounter with an SEC title in Atlanta. I also believe he is going to enjoy the underdog role he will have in 2021 when the media will do everything but anoint Georgia as the national champion eight or so months before the curtain opens on the college football season. Perception is the Gators will take a step back having lost Trask, Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes from one of the more dynamic offenses in Florida football history. Lest we forget, Florida was thought to be a serious uphill challenge in 2018 when Mullen won 10 games with Feleipe Franks at QB. When Franks broke his ankle in game three of 2019, there was no shortage of predictions that the Gators would be a 6-6 team at best. Trask stepped in, led the Gators to 11 wins and shocked the world. Forget the bowl game. In 2020 the Gators were three possessions from an unbeaten season and the College Football Playoff.

So the challenge is there for 2021 at Florida. Will that be enough of a lure to keep Mullen in Gainesville? I think that it will, but like everyone else at this point, I’m only speculating. I’ve talked to enough people who have solid information and even they are split down the middle on whether he stays or whether he goes, but everyone – including those with NFL connections – believe Mullen is quite content to be here at Florida, therefore anything less than a near perfect offer from the NFL won’t fly with him.

At Florida we’ve been through this before. There were very few years in which Steve Spurrier wasn’t courted by NFL teams. He came close to leaving for the Tampa Bay Bucs after the 1996 national championship season and before he chose to leave for Washington after the completion of the 2001 season, he also listened long and hard to the Carolina Panthers. In all cases, Spurrier listened.

Mullen’s mentor is Urban Meyer and Urban is one to listen. It is being rumored that Meyer is all set to take the job as the HBC of the Jacksonville Jaguars. In a text from Urban that I got early Sunday afternoon, he said, “All rumor at this point.” It is rumor that he will take the job for sure, but he is listening.

Expect the same from Dan Mullen, who is going to listen this year and any time in the future when the NFL comes calling. At some point he might think as Spurrier did – why is it that the Florida fan base is never satisfied? – and decide enough is enough. I don’t think that time is now. It could happen in the future, but my instincts tell me not right now.