Will lightning strike twice for the Gators?

Archive photo: A Florida ball carrier holds the football as he lands near the goal line against Georgia in Jacksonville on Nov. 2, 2024. Photo by Chris Spears, GatorBait Media.

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Lightning doesn't strike twice in the same place. It's amazing how many people really do believe that in spite of overwhelming scientific evidence to the contrary. That's Mother Nature for you.

Football, however, is quite a different story, especially when you take into account what happened Oct. 17, 2026 in Athens, Georgia and Austin, Texas.

In Athens, the No. 1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs, widely proclaimed by the national media as the single most complete and least vulnerable team in the entire country, roared out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead over the Auburn Tigers.

Georgia needed only five plays after the opening kickoff to go 75 yards for the first TD. The second TD came on a Gunner Stockton TD pass that finished off a seven-play drive that covered 89 yards. Georgia was a 19.5-point favorite so the blowout everyone expected was off to a rather peachy start.

Out in Austin, the former No. 1 Texas Longhorns scored the first two times they had the football, driving 75 yards in seven plays capped off by a 32-yard Raleek Brown touchdown run. On their next drive, the Longhorns went eight plays for 60 yards, settling for a field goal and a 10-0 lead. Three-and-a-half minutes into the second quarter Texas return specialist Ryan Niblett ran an Alec Clark punt back 63 yards to give the Longhorns a 17-3 lead. The Longhorns had progressed from 10.5-point favorites to 13.5 during the week, so no one among the 103,989 at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium was shocked.

The expected blowout was well on its way to becoming a notch in the belt of the Longhorns, who were dismissing their 27-24 loss to Oklahoma the week before as a fluke.

What happened next at both venues is as perplexing to vanquished Georgia and Texas fans as it is to victorious Auburn and Florida fans.

Georgia sacked Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown three times and benefitted from 11 Auburn penalties good for -85 yards in negative yardage, yet with the game on the line, the Bulldogs couldn't stop Brown from running the ball. Stockton, who came into the game with a 14-1 TDP to interception ratio, heaved two picks in the second half and with 58 seconds remaining, fumbled the ball away to set up Auburn's game-winning field goal. Final score Auburn 27, Georgia 24.

The same Auburn team that was clueless in its efforts to stop Florida's offense in a loss four weeks earlier, made the defensive plays that won the game while probably torpedoing Stockton's Heisman hopes as well as exposing Georgia as vulnerable.

Florida was dead in the water against Texas following the Niblett punt return, but the same defense that couldn't figure out how to stop Arch Manning came out of a pass-rush coma and spent the rest of the day making life miserable for the heir of the Manning throne.

Florida's offense, which couldn't move the football, drove nine plays for a TD just before the half, then held the ball for more than 21 minutes of the second half while putting two touchdowns and a field goal on the scoreboard.

These same Gators who couldn't run the ball against either Missouri or South Carolina, rediscovered their running game. The two- and three-yard runs of the first half became four and later five, culminating with runs of 13 yards, then 11 by Jadan Baugh for what proved to be the game-winning touchdown. Arch Manning was sacked five times, the last one resulting in a fumble that the Gators recovered to quash any hopes of a Texas miracle rally.

Final score Florida 27, Texas 24. The exact score by which Texas lost to Oklahoma the week before and Auburn beat Georgia on the same day. Call it coincidence that during a two-week span, three critical games in the SEC end with the same final score, but what isn't a coincidence is that Texas and Georgia aren't exactly the cement mixers that the national media portrayed as churning, burning urns of funk.

That matters this weekend in Atlanta when Florida (5-2, 3-2 SEC), now ranked No. 17 nationally, takes on now No. 3 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Just like the Texas game where the Longhorns began as 10.5-point favorites on Sunday and kicked off as 13.5-point faves in Austin, Georgia began the week as 10.5-point favorites to knock out the Gators. Well, that spread has increased to 12.5 and may bump another point by Saturday.

Another coincidence? Not really. The betting perception is that lightning won't strike twice, that Georgia couldn't possibly melt down like it did against Auburn and Florida couldn't possibly dominate both lines of scrimmage against the Bulldogs like they did in the second half against Texas.

That is the perception. But instead of perceptions, how about three reasons why Florida is very capable of springing the upset.

1. The return of Vernell Brown III to go with Eric Singleton Jr. and Dallas Wilson is capable of moving the safeties out of the box while creating open space for either Tramell Jones or Aaron Philo to find downfield plays in the passing game. Vernell can stretch the field both vertically and horizontally. He's the nightmare for defensive coordinators who end up sacrificing coverage on others in an attempt to neutralize VBIII.

2. Confidence. Florida has proven it can come back from down 14. Georgia has proven it can blow a 14-point lead. The positive effect of coming back to beat Texas after such a miserable start cannot be underestimated. Florida has had two weeks to grow more confident and to understand there isn't a team in the SEC the Gators aren't capable of beating. Georgia has had two weeks to try to spin the Auburn loss as just a bad day at the office. Confidence vs. trying to spin a loss positive? Take the confidence every time.

3. Defensive pressure. Against Texas, the Gators abandoned what hadn't been working all season in favor of a bring the heat from every angle imaginable mentality. Arch Manning had no clue where the pass rush was coming from, but he knew it was coming. It's a gamble but worth it as long as the quarterback is contained. If the Gators can bring the pressure without giving escape lanes to Stockton, who is an effective runner, they can win this game.

After the South Carolina loss, a blowout loss to Georgia was predicted. The oddsmakers in Las Vegas must still think that's true given the spread, but Florida defied the odds against Texas. Can it happen again? Will lightning strike twice?

No one should think probable, but possible? Definitely.

Saturday in the SEC

Arkansas (3-4, 1-3 SEC)

The Razorbacks got their first SEC win over Vanderbilt in large part because they didn't turn the ball over. QB KJ Jackson threw for 251 yards and ran for 58 more without turning the ball over… The Arkansas defense is +4 in turnovers the past two games.

Saturday: No. 23 Missouri (5-2, 2-2 SEC), 7:45 p.m. SEC Network

Auburn (4-3, 2-3 SEC)

Quarterback Byrum Brown's ability to make explosive plays when breaking containment in the pocket is the key to Auburn upsetting Ole Miss in Oxford this weekend. Brown has run for 479 yards and six touchdowns this year with two games (Tennessee and Georgia) with more than 100 yards on the ground.

Saturday: at No. 12 Ole Miss (5-2, 3-2 SEC), 12:45 p.m. SEC Network

No. 3 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC)

Listed as questionable for the Florida game are stud safety KJ Bolden, running back Chauncey Bowens and wide receiver Isiah Canion.

Saturday: No. 17 FLORIDA (5-2, 3-2 SEC) in Atlanta, 3:30 p.m. ABC

Mississippi State (4-3, 2-3 SEC)

The Bulldogs will be without quarterback Kamario Taylor the rest of the season. Taylor threw for 1,450 yards and 17 touchdowns in MSU's first five games of the season. The Bulldogs were 4-1 with Taylor at full strength.

Saturday: at No. 11 Texas (5-2, 2-2 SEC), 7:30 p.m. ESPN

No. 23 Missouri (5-2, 2-2 SEC)

Ahmad Hardy is technically available for Saturday's game with Arkansas. He has been practicing the past few days and could possibly see the field for a few snaps against the Razorbacks. Hardy ran for 1,649 yards and 16 TDs last year but suffered a gunshot wound in the summer months and has yet to play this year.

Saturday: at Arkansas (3-4, 1-3 SEC), 7:45 p.m. SEC Network

Oklahoma (4-3, 2-2 SEC)

The Sooners have a beaten up offensive line. Out for Saturday's game with South Carolina are starting guards Ryan Fodie and Eddy Pierre-Louis. Listed as questionable are center Jake Maikkula and left tackle Fred Hinton.

Saturday: South Carolina (4-3, 2-3 SEC), 4:15 p.m. SEC Network

No. 12 Ole Miss (5-2, 3-2 SEC)

Kewan Lacy's bad shoulder was aggravated in the Rebels loss to Texas. He's out for Saturday's game with Auburn. With Lacy out, Makhi Frazier will get the bulk of the carries.

Saturday: Auburn (4-3, 2-3 SEC), 12:45 p.m. SEC Network

South Carolina (4-3, 2-3 SEC)

The next three games are very winnable for the Gamecocks, who need to get to seven wins to ensure that Shane Beamer will still be the head coach next year.

Saturday: at Oklahoma (4-3, 2-2 SEC), 4:15 p.m. SEC Network

No. 11 Texas (5-2, 2-2 SEC)

Left tackle Trevor Goosby will miss the rest of the season with a torn patella tendon.

Saturday: Mississippi State (4-3, 2-3 SEC), 7:30 p.m. ESPN