To upset the Aggies, the Gators must neutralize QB Marcel Reed

(Photo by Chris Spears)

A year ago, Marcel Reed burst onto the college football scene by lighting up the Florida Gators in The Swamp. In his first collegiate start, Reed threw for an efficient 178 yards and two touchdowns without a pick, plus ran for 83 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries as Texas A&M handed the Gators a 33-20 defeat that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score would seem to indicate.

A year later and Reed finds himself mentioned among Heisman Trophy candidates. Already he has thrown for 1,256 yards (8.7 per attempt) and 11 touchdowns while running for 149 yards and two more scores. Reed benefits from a huge offensive line that paves the way for a running game that averages more than 195 yards and gives him time to throw to two of the best deep threat receivers (Mario Craver, 30-557, 5 TDs; KC Concepcion (24-401, 5 TDs).

With Reed in control of the offense, the Aggies (5-0, 1-0 SEC) have as much or more firepower than any team the Gators (2-3, 1-1 SEC) have faced this season but they can be slowed down as Auburn proved three weeks ago. Auburn gave up 414 yards, but held the Aggies to a touchdown and three field goals. Reed didn’t throw a TDP, threw an interception and was sacked for -23 yards in losses. Had Auburn generated any kind of offense, the Tigers could have sprung the upset. Texas A&M played very good defense in that game, but Auburn’s offense was almost as dismal as Florida’s was against Miami.

There are some similarities here between the Aggies and Miami. Both have outstanding skill people and great size and strength on both lines of scrimmage. Florida was worn down by Miami, but, like Auburn, had the Gators generated any kind of offense, they could have won the game. The defense played well enough to win but finally gave way in the fourth quarter in large part because the offense couldn’t keep them off the field. The Aggies have some explosive players, but the real secret of their success is their ability to pound away and wear out their opponents in the fourth quarter.

Two weeks after the Miami debacle the Gators finally played like the team Billy Napier and the rest of the civilized world expected in beating Texas. After three straight below par performances, the offense went off for 457 yards including 298 through the air by DJ Lagway. The defense, meanwhile, totally shut down the Texas running game while harassing Arch Manning for four full quarters. Florida’s relentless pass rush sacked Manning six times, hit him eight others and hurried him 22 times. The Florida secondary came through with a pair of interceptions and quite frankly, should have had three others. Special teams blocked a punt and converted two field goals.

A similar effort is what it will take for the Gators to beat the Aggies at Kyle Field (7 p.m., ESPN) Saturday. Texas A&M comes into the game ranked 5^th nationally while looking every bit capable of making it to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game as well as the College Football Playoff. Florida comes into the game looking like a team every bit as  capable leaving its game at the team hotel as showing up beast mode.

That is the dilemma that is 2025 Gators. With seven games to go, there isn’t a team on the schedule the Gators can’t beat. At the same time, there isn’t a team remaining they can’t lose to.

It is anybody’s guess which team will show up Saturday night. If it’s the one that played so poorly against LSU and Miami, it will be a long, long night in College Station. If it’s the one that was snorting fire last week, Texas A&M could find itself in trouble. A week ago against Texas the Gators could have beaten any team in the country.

To beat the Aggies and even their record at 3-3, here are the keys for the Gators:

Cut the head off the snake: That's an Al McGuire basketball term that applies to this football game. The snake is Marcel Reed and it is imperative of Florida defensive coordinator Ron Roberts to dial up a game plan that makes him feel like he just earned an F- on his Romper Room report card. A week ago Roberts creeper defense had Arch Manning feeling dazed and confused. Arch was seeing ghosts where he thought the blitz was coming from, particularly in the second half. Cut the head off the Aggie snake and the Gators will be in the hunt for a win.

The O-line has to keep DJ Lagway’s jersey clean: Texas couldn’t get to DJ Lagway even one time last week because the offensive line had perhaps its best game in two years. Given a clean pocket and time to throw, Lagway sliced and diced the Texas defense. With adequate time, Lagway rarely needed to force anything downfield. CJ Carr of Notre Dame had time and he torched the Aggies for 293 yards so they are vulnerable. CJ Carr only throws the ball like Lagway in his dreams.

Napier has to be willing to take chances throwing the ball downfield: Against Texas, the Florida offense shed its predictable mode. Sure, there was a concerted effort to run the ball and take time off the clock, but Napier showed a willingness to let freshmen Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III run free as banshees in the Texas secondary. These guys are better than the Notre Dame receivers by a wide margin, but Napier has to be willing to cut the passing game loose. If the Aggies are on their heels in the secondary, Jadan Baugh will have a big game running the ball, too.

Play to win, not to lose: That means an aggressive game plan on both sides of the ball from bell to bell. To win this game at Kyle Field with 108,000 doing their best to make life miserable for the Gators, it’s going to take an aggressive style both offensively and defensively to take the crowd out of the game. Florida’s margin for error is slim so the Gators cannot allow the Aggies to get juiced up by the crowd. If its crickets in the stadium in the fourth quarter, then Billy Napier will have defied the odds for another week.

The pick: Florida in a stunning white knuckles upset.

SEC FOOTBALL

Washington State (3-2) at No. 4 Ole Miss (5-0, 3-0 SEC): For Ole Miss, this is a tuneup game because next week the Rebels will be in Athens to face Georgia. Washington State isn’t very good so unless Ole Miss leaves its game in The Grove, this one will be over by halftime. The Rebels are favored by 32.5 points and they could cover the spread by halftime. Trinidad Chambliss will get the start at QB, but he should be wearing a ball cap in the second half as Austin Simmons sees his first playing time in weeks after suffering a high ankle sprain against Arkansas. Whoever is at quarterback should put up some big numbers because Wazzoo gave up 118 points, 545 yards and eight TDPs in losses to North Texas and Washington. The pick: Ole Miss

No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0, 1-0 SEC) vs. Texas (3-2, 0-1 SEC), in Dallas: This is an elimination game for Texas. Three losses at midseason and an 0-2 start in the SEC will constitute an early exit from championship contention for the team that was supposed to win it all. Two things to think about. All eyes will be on John Mateer. If he plays and he is throwing the ball accurately, it’s going to be a long afternoon for the Longhorns. Second, for all the talk about Mateer, Oklahoma’s defense is ranked No. 1 in the nation, giving up 193 yards per game. Unless Texas suddenly discovers a heretofore dormant running game, Arch Manning is going to think the pass rush he saw against Florida last week was Romper Room. For Texas to win this game, Mateer has to sit the game out, its defense has to consistently give the Longhorns great field position and the offensive line is going to have to figure out how to actually block a pass rusher. The pick: Oklahoma

No. 8 Alabama (4-1, 2-0 SEC) at No. 14 Missouri (5-0, 1-0 SEC): Probably the best game of the day will be played at noon, 11 a.m. Central time. The number that should be on everyone’s mind is 37:29:40. As in time of possession. Missouri leads the country in time of possession by a wide margin. When the Tigers get the ball they drive it relentlessly down their opponents’ throats with the best stable of running backs in the SEC led by Ahmad Hardy, who leads the country in rushing. When opponents load up the box to stop the run, Beau Pribula throws it over the top. Missouri’s ability to control the clock is one reason the Tigers have the No. 2 defense in the country. The trick for Alabama will be to (a) get the Tigers off the field and (b) get the lead, forcing Mizzou to play from behind. Ty Simpson, who is completing 70.4 percent of his passes and has 13 TDPs against only one pick, has to have a big game. If he gets some help on the ground from Jam Miller, Alabama can hand Mizzou its first loss. If this game were in Tuscaloosa, picking Alabama would be a no brainer. The game is in Columbia. The pick: Missouri

No. 10 Georgia (4-1, 2-1 SEC) at Auburn (3-2, 0-2 SEC): Auburn can’t run the ball. Stopping the run is the one thing Georgia’s defense has done exceptionally well, so the question for Auburn is can Jackson Arnold mount enough of a threat throwing the ball to make this game interesting? He’s averaging only 6.3 yards per attempt so it’s not like he’s a real threat to light up a Georgia secondary that is average at best. Auburn’s defense is rather good and the Tigers do get after quarterbacks (16 sacks). For the Tigers to have any kind of chance to spring the upset, the defense will have to get the job done by making Gunner Stockton seem ordinary. For Auburn to win this game fewer than 35 points can be scored by both teams combined. The pick: Georgia

South Carolina (3-2, 1-2 SEC) at No. 11 LSU (4-1, 1-1 SEC): This could wind up being the most boring game of the day. South Carolina’s offense stinks and LSU’s isn’t much better. South Carolina ranks 127^thnationally in total offense. LSU’s only game with more than two offensive touchdowns was against D1AA Southeastern Louisiana. Neither Garrett Nussmeier nor LaNorris Sellers are playing like the Heisman Trophy candidates they were predicted to be. Neither team can run the ball. Nussmeier and Sellers aren’t turning the ball over, but they aren’t exactly wearing out opposing secondaries with their pinpoint passing either. So, it’s going to come down to who plays the best defense. If this game were in Columbia the Gamecocks would have the edge, but it’s not. The pick: LSU

Arkansas (2-3, 0-1 SEC) at No. 12 Tennessee (4-1, 1-1 SEC): Tennessee has scored at least 41 points in all five games. The Vols might get 60 against the very bad Arkansas defense. Tennessee is going to have all sorts of issues trying to contain Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green, the national leader in total offense. Green is the perfect fit in a Bobby Petrino offense, so scoring points will be the least of the worries for the Hogs. Can they stop someone? That’s the problem. Probably not, but against the Razorbacks it shouldn’t really matter. The pick: Tennessee