Can the Gators spring the upset? Recent history says it won't happen

(Photo by Chris Spears)

History says the Gators (2-3, 1-1 SEC) are in deepest and darkest when they take the field Saturday evening (7 p.m., ESPN) in College Station to face 5^th-ranked Texas A&M (5-0, 2-0 SEC). The Aggies are only 7.5-point favorites, so the oddsmakers in Las Vegas must think the Gators go into the game within striking distance of a second straight upset over a top ten-ranked team from Texas.

Could the Gators actually pull it off?

They stuck it to then 9^th-ranked Texas last Saturday, but that game was in The Swamp. Florida in The Swamp is a whole lot different than Florida on the road, especially against a ranked opponent. In Billy Napier’s 43-game tenure at the University of Florida, the Gators are oh-fer against ranked teams away from The Swamp. They are 0-9 against ranked teams in true road games, 0-4 in neutral site games.

This season alone, the Gators are 0-2 on the road against ranked teams. They lost to then No. 3 LSU, 20-10, at Tiger Stadium and 26-7 to then No. 4 (now No. 2) Miami at Hard Rock Stadium. Saturday, it’s a Texas A&M team that might very well be the best team in the Southeastern Conference, one that will have the electricity of 108,000 or so fans crammed into Kyle Field making this one of the most inhospitable venues in sports to be found anywhere on the planet.

On paper, this is a no-brainer. It’s Texas A&M all the way. The Aggies have superb size, strength and depth on both lines of scrimmage. Quarterback Marcel Reed beat the Gators in The Swamp last year and he’s playing better this year. The running backs are exceptional and the two transfer wide receivers are big plays looking for a place to happen. The defense has been getting better every single week.

All the favorables point to the Aggies. It’s hard to find anything but unfavorables when it comes to the Gators. The Gators have enough ability to spring an upset but they aren’t very good on the road, particularly against a ranked team. Still, there are a couple of weird variables that might factor into the final equation Saturday night.

First off, the Gators love Billy Napier a whole lot more than big money boosters who think 43 games (21-22 record) is more than enough of a sample size to determine future success. Following the Texas game last November, Napier was supposed to be one more loss away from hitting the buyout lottery but the Gators rallied on his behalf, won four straight games and kept him gainfully employed. Well, for a second straight year, this is the game following Texas and even though the Gators beat the Longhorns last week, Napier is supposed to be one more loss away from the buyout lottery, something in the neighborhood of $21 million.

The Gators are VERY motivated to win one for Billy. If they’re able to duplicate the focus and effort in College Station, they might just take the crowd out of the game and turn this into a street fight. The Gators have their backs to the wall. That makes them extremely dangerous.

The second and perhaps weirder variable is the fact that whenever the Aggies narrow the gap between their historical reality and the possibility of winning a championship they tend to lose a game or two that they have no business losing. A year ago, for example, the Aggies traveled to Columbia, South Carolina 7-1 and ranked 10^th nationally. The Aggies limped out of Willy Brice on the short end of a 44-20 blowout. Two weeks later with a shot at the College Football Playoff still a possibility, the Aggies lost in overtime to a bad Auburn team. They lost to Appalachian State and Mississippi State in 2022 and to Mississippi State in 2021.

Just when the Aggies seem to have everything going their way, they have one or more of those Murphy’s Law games where everything that can go wrong does go wrong and precisely at the least desirable moment.

Can it happen again? Can the Gators score a second straight upset win over a top ten team? Can the Aggies do what they’ve always done before and lose a game they aren’t supposed to?

Florida’s formula for success is fairly simple: (1) Stuff the run and make the Aggies one-dimensional; (2) make life miserable for Marcel Reed by keeping him confined in the pocket and hitting him on a regular basis; (3) no stupid penalties; (4) keep the Aggie pass rushers out of DJ Lagway’s face for a second straight week; (5) take shots downfield to stretch the field vertically; (6) be the more physical team on both sides of the ball; and (7) get the lead and make the Aggies play from behind.

NAPIER ON WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO SPRING AN UPSET AND KEEP ON WINNING

On the SEC Coaches Teleconference Wednesday morning, Napier said, “I think when you're going through struggle, you gotta narrow your focus and that circle becomes smaller. And I think that this group has good chemistry, they have good connection, and they played for each other this past week. So, we got good people. I think that's the No. 1 ingredient to be able to handle adversity and turn things around is you gotta have quality people and you have to have invested in each other and build good relationships throughout the offseason."

FLORIDA INJURY LIST FOR TEXAS A&M

Questionable: WR Aidan Mizell; RB Ja’Kobi Jackson; OG Roderick Kearney; TE Tony Livingston; DT Joseph Mcatchou; OT Devon Manuel; WR Muizz Tounkara

Out: RB Duke Clark; DL Caleb Banks; DB Aaron Gates; DB Dijon Johnson; EDGE LJ McCray; RB Treyaun Webb

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 8 Alabama (4-1, 2-0 SEC): Ty Simpson, who has completed 70.4 percent of his passes while throwing 13 touchdown passes, will be going against a Missouri secondary that allowed 302 passing yards to South Carolina a couple of weeks ago … Out for Missouri are DL Jeremiah Beaman, LB Cayden Jones, LB Jah-Marien Lathan and LB Qua Russaw. Questionable is WR Jaylen Mbakwe. Wide receiver Ryan Williams is listed as probable.  

Arkansas (2-3, 0-1 SEC): Out for Tennessee are DB Quentavius Scandrett, WR Monte Harrison, WR Ismael Cisse, WR Jalen Brown, RB AJ Green, TE Jeremiah Beck Jr., TE Andreas Paaske and DL David Oke.

Auburn (3-2, 0-2 SEC): Although the Tigers have lost two in a row, HBC Hugh Freeze said Wednesday, “We don’t blink. Everything is still in front of us to go out and have an outstanding season” … Listed as questionable for Georgia are running back Durell Robinson and wide receiver Horatio Fields. Fields is the third leading receiver on the team with 12 catches for 106 yards and a touchdown.

No. 10 Georgia (4-1, 2-1 SEC): Out for Auburn are WR Talyn Taylor, C Malachi Toliver, WR Thomas Blackshear and TE Ethan Barbour. Starting offensive tackles Earnest Greene and Monroe Toliver are listed as questionable.  

No. 11 LSU (4-1, 1-1 SEC): Listed as doubtful for South Carolina is LG Paul Mubenga. Listed as questionable is wide receiver Aaron Anderson. Running back Cade Durham and defensive tackle Ahmad Breaux are listed as probable. Anderson is the team’s leading receiver with 23 catches for 305 yards while Durham leads the team in rushing with 213 yards and two touchdowns.  

No. 14 Missouri (5-0, 1-0 SEC): The Tigers will look to exploit an Alabama run defense that is giving up 155 yards per game. Missouri has the SEC’s leading rusher in Ahmad Hardy (730 yards, 9 TDs) while backups Jamal Roberts and Marquise Davis have combined for 550 yards and five TDs … Out for Alabama are placekicker Blake Craig, QB Sam Horn and OL Logan Reichert.  Offensive tackle Cayden Green is listed as questionable.

No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0, 1-0 SEC): Quarterback John Mateer’s status for Texas is listed as “questionable.” In four games before breaking his thumb, Mateer threw for 1,215 yards and six touchdowns while running for 190 yards and five TDs. Out for Texas are offensive linemen Troy Everett, Jacob Sexton and Jake Taylor. Also out is tight end Kade McIntyre. Listed as questionable are offensive lineman Logan Howland and wide receiver Keontez Lewis. Lewis has 17 catches for 210 yards and two touchdowns.

No. 4 Ole Miss (5-0, 3-0 SEC): Kewan Lacy, who only got 23 carries as a true freshman at Missouri a year ago, has run for 445 yards and eight touchdowns in 102 carries through five games. Trinidad Chambliss, who was the QB at Division II national champ Ferris State a year ago, is the second leading rusher with 266 yards. He has also thrown for 1,033 yards and five touchdowns.

South Carolina (3-2, 1-2 SEC): Out for LSU is offensive lineman Markee Anderson. Listed as doubtful are OL Nolan Hay and OL Carson Henry. Questionable are CB Myles Norwood, CB Judge Collier and DL Troy Pikes.

No. 12 Tennessee (4-1, 1-1 SEC): Out for Arkansas are DB Rickey Gibson III, DB Jermod McCoy and WR Radarious Jackson. Questionable is tight end Ethan Davis.

Texas (3-2, 0-1 SEC): Listed as probable for Oklahoma are wide receiver Parker Livingstone and defensive back Malik Muhammad. Listed as doubtful is running back CJ Baxter. Livingstone has caught 13 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns. Baxter has run for 110 yards.

No. 5 Texas A&M (5-0, 2-0 SEC): Safety Jarred Kerr is out for Florida while former Gator linebacker Scooby Williams is listed as questionable.

HEISMAN TROPHY CANDIDATES

John Mateer, Oklahoma: Before the broken thumb he was the favorite. He can still make a comeback.

Dante Moore, Oregon: He’s the favorite now. Indiana this week is the only game against a ranked team left on the schedule.

Ahmad Hardy, Missouri: Longshot. Running backs rarely win the Heisman but he’s a stud.

Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State: Probably the best football player in the country and he will have games against Penn State and Michigan to show off.

Carson Beck, Miami: He had a great game against Florida State to move back into the picture.

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana: The best player you’ve never heard of. If he lights up Oregon and the Hoosiers win Saturday he might emerge as the Heisman favorite. How did a Miami kid this good spend two years at California before winding up at Indiana?

Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss: He’s the best story out there. If he keeps on winning and Ole Miss makes it to Atlanta, he could spring the upset.

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: A bad second half against Alabama may have killed his chances to make the podium.

Ty Simpson, Alabama: One to keep an eye on. He’s playing great and Alabama is a very hot team.