CARLTON REESE COLUMN: Looking At It Another Way, I Could Argue The Gators Were 7th In The Country

And here is the kicker for all those who rely on these ranking systems to turn their lives into ecstasy or misery: It’s all fake news! The calculation of these numbers is farcical and should be scrutinized a bit more closely.

Just how well did Billy Napier do? A lot better if you consider this. (Louisiana Lafayette Photo)

By CARLTON REESE

GatorBait Columnist

So all the Gator recruitniks looked at Wednesday’s final rankings on Rivals and headed for the next bridge from which to end it all: Florida hauled in the 47th-best recruiting class in the country. Oh, the horror!

Many fans who put way too much of their life’s stock in this process did, however, breathe a sigh of relief with a couple surprise signees in Kamari Wilson, the prized defensive back out of Bradenton’s IMG Academy who spurned offers from everyone including Alabama and Georgia; Devin Moore, the Naples DB who flipped from his commitment to Notre Dame; and Shemar James, the 5-star linebacker from Mobile, Ala., who was once a UF commit that had backed off and looked to be headed elsewhere.

But the final rankings say it all, don’t they? Florida’s recruiting class was the 14th best out of 14 SEC schools and fell way short of even Florida State’s that rated No.12 nationally. And here is the kicker for all those who rely on these ranking systems to turn their lives into ecstasy or misery: It’s all fake news! The calculation of these numbers is farcical and should be scrutinized a bit more closely.

Let’s assume for a moment that all the individual player assessments are correct – I would certainly have no way of determining whether the guy rated the No.75 prospect could actually be a better recruit than the guy rated No.10. So, we’ll just have to take their word for it. Remember, Russell Wilson was a 2-star recruit coming out of high school and Aaron Rodgers was not even rated.

To put it simply, the rankings compiled by Rivals are more about volume than quality. All 10 of Florida’s signees from Wednesday could have been 5-star recruits and it still may have not landed the Gators among the top-10 classes in the country. Because Florida signed only 9 players, one may not notice the average high-level recruit the Gators nabbed since other schools that signed 20-25 players mainly of the 3-star variety are being touted as better classes. Therein lies the nonsense.

When this year’s recruiting cycle has ended, Florida will not be sitting with 9 players; there will be a full recruiting class in addition to a number transfers flocking to play for Billy Napier who has already caught the attention of recruits and coaches in the mere blink of an eye since he took over.

In one of Aesop’s Fables, the beasts of the field argue over which animal deserves the most credit for producing the most children at birth. The lioness turns the table on the argument by stating she has just one, but that one happens to be the king of the jungle.

If we can’t trust a lesson from Aesop’s Fables, then we cannot put our trust in anything. Hence, let’s look at Rivals’ rankings based on quality and not quantity, shall we? Remember, we are taking for good measure the accuracy of the assessments by these recruiting services.

Rivals gives players a rating anywhere from zero to five stars and the average of those stars is one good way to examine the overall quality of signees. Each player is also given a numerical rating, generally from 5-6.1, and one might take the average of those ratings to make a determination as to the overall quality of a recruiting class.

Excluding kickers and including only players who actually signed as opposed to still only verbally committed, Florida’s rankings fly way up the charts when overall quality is the measurement. In terms of stars, Florida’s signing class averaged 3.67 per player, making it the 7th best class in the country. Alabama and Georgia, with classes of 24 and 23 players, respectively, are ranked Nos. 1 and 3 based on average stars. LSU, which signed only 13 players and accordingly received a low ranking of 26, holds the same average stars among recruits as the Gators.

According to Rivals, the Kentucky Wildcats hauled in the 10th best recruiting class the country, but its average star rating of 3.579 puts it at 13th, well behind the Gators and LSU. Kentucky signed 20 players Wednesday, the same number signed by Tennessee which earned a No.11 ranking. The Volunteers, though, signed players with an average star of 3.35, ranking them only No.22.

And what of Florida State, which faced the humiliation of being left at the altar by the nation’s top recruit? The ‘Noles’ signing class ranks No.12 according to Rivals, miles ahead of Florida’s, but upon closer examination the Gators’ haul was more impressive. Sitting 35 spots ahead of UF in the rankings, FSU is actually seven spots behind the Gators in terms of average star rating (3.533).

In terms of average player ratings, Gator recruits come in at 5.8 (Alabama’s class average is 5.888). The Gators’ average rating comes in significantly higher than FSU, Tennessee, LSU, Kentucky, Miami and all other SEC schools except Alabama, Georgia and Texas A&M.

This is only the early signing period – much more is yet to come and that bodes well for coach Napier who seems to have built a lot of trust among recruits in a very short time. On the board are 21 top-250 recruits still undecided and 20 others who are verbally committed but not yet signed. This means the final rankings in February will look decidedly different across the board and especially for Florida which still has a lot of room to play with in terms of filling out its class.

The bottom line is thus: Gator fans should be happy with what is transpiring on the recruiting front and not get bogged down in statistical rankings that do not give an accurate picture.

Remember, Mark Twain once said, “There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” So it is with recruiting rankings, in spite of all the confusing numbers thrown at you here – these numbers are meant solely to comfort the distraught among us for there is no reason to stress this day.

Climb down from the ledge and join those of us living in the realm of rationality and enlightenment. The air is clean and the earth spins rather slowly beneath our feet. Football starts in the Fall, not on signing day.