Key to a Win in Atlanta

Archive photo: A Florida quarterback prepares to throw as a Georgia defender closes during the Nov. 2, 2024 rivalry game in Jacksonville. Photo by Chris Spears, GatorBait Media.

The Gators will look to accomplish something that they haven’t done in the last five seasons, beat the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday. Maybe the change of scenery will do the Gators some good. The Dogs have owned them for the last few years in EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. It’s not the longest winning streak for the Dogs, that would be seven and is the same for the Gators, but it is getting close! Now the game will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta and will definitely have a different feel than the annual Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party!

There are a lot of ways that Florida could win this game. Gunner Stockton could have the worst game of his career and gift the Gators with a couple of pick sixes or the vaunted Georgia defense could fall apart and the Gators could make a push to Baugh to win the Heisman with a four touchdown and 200 rushing yard game. Neither of those are likely, but they could happen!

A more realistic key to winning the game in Atlanta will be winning the third down challenge for the Gators. The Bulldogs are converting nearly 53% of their third downs on offense. That ranks them #5 nationally and #1 in the SEC in that category. They have been able to be that effective because they have been so good at running the ball on first down and getting positive yards on second down, leaving them third and short on many occasions. The Gator defense has given up almost 44% conversions on third downs to their opponents. That puts them far down the list in that category. The good news is they held Texas to only 20% in their last game.

The Gator offense is converting only 45% of the time on third down this season. The Georgia defense is only allowing their opponents to convert on third down 36 percent of the time. That’s one of the reasons they are one of the best defensive units in the country. Auburn was able to beat them in their last game, but they only converted 6 of 16 on third downs in that game. That’s 37% for us non math majors.

The key for Florida winning the game on Saturday will come down to a rather simple statistic. Can Florida convert 40% of their third down attempts and can they hold Georgia to under 50% of their third down attempts. If Florida can keep the ball away from the Georgia offense, they have a better chance to win the game. To do so, they must convert third downs when necessary. This will lead to winning the time of possession battle as well.

On defense, if Florida can get the Bulldogs off the field on third down, they can limit the chances they have to make explosive plays. Georgia is averaging 16.7 explosive plays per game this season. Obviously, limiting the number of total plays will help limit the number of explosive plays given up by the Gator defense that has been suspect at times during the season so far.

If the Gators are to pull the upset in Atlanta, how they fare on both sides of the ball on third down will be a key factor. Time will tell if it is THE key to the success of the Gators or not.