Could A Role Reversal Work In Gators’ Favor?

Florida can embrace one of two mentalities this weekend in Jacksonville – it can either give up and understand its place beneath the heal of a superior Georgia team, or it can turn that frustration and disappointment into a furious rage that explodes against an unsuspecting team.

It’s now Florida’s turn to play the role of caged animal, having seen already what a wounded beast is capable of two weeks ago in Baton Rouge.

That should have been a no-brainer, beating an LSU team that seemed incapable of moving the football against a good defense or developing a game plan worthy of taking down a team above its stature. But one must never discount the cornered and injured animal that fights desperately for its life, and that’s what LSU was.

Ed Orgeron was on the hot seat, Tigers players were the objects of scorn and derision even on their own campus, and the media had closed the book on that football program. Trouble is, there were still highly-recruited athletes wearing purple and gold and it was time to suck it up and show some pride, circle the wagons, or any other sports cliché one might imagine.

It also helped that the Florida Gators did not take that wounded animal mentality into Baton Rouge, as it should have. Dreadful in Lexington, uninspiring against Vanderbilt, UF did not exactly enter the LSU game as a team glowing with promise – the Gators were ripe for the taking and that’s exactly what happened. No matter what any coaches or players say, the Gators did not enter the LSU game with a healthy respect for its opponent, and why should they after having watched a season of dreadful game film on the Tigers?

That is where the Georgia Bulldogs stand this weekend. Kirby Smart’s team has watched film a Gators defense/sieve that must have him licking his chops. The game films of the last three games inspire no fear into a team that has been on a bulldozing campaign all year, nearly of unprecedented fashion the last 30 years in this league.

So who could blame Georgia for bringing a lack of respect for Florida this weekend? Perhaps Smart is hiding the film of the last three Florida games and showing only the Alabama game to its players. He best be careful, though, as the team that played Alabama doesn’t seem to exist anymore.

This leaves us with Florida in nearly the same situation as LSU heading into its game with the Gators: injured, lacking respect, facing an opponent that should crush it. Yet, what happened? The wounded beast thrashed its favored opponent.

Florida can embrace one of two mentalities this weekend in Jacksonville – it can either give up and understand its place beneath the heal of a superior Georgia team, or it can turn that frustration and disappointment into a furious rage that explodes against an unsuspecting team.

No one in the world, including perhaps many people in the Gators’ locker room, thinks there is a chance in hell Florida can pull off the upset. The oddsmakers have put Georgia as more than a two-touchdown favorite and for Florida to even stay that close seems on paper to be a bit fantastical.

Carlton the Doorman, who is ready to start hocking household items on Ebay, notes that the algorithms call for a 37-point margin Saturday in favor of the Bulldogs. He also tells me there have been larger margins this year that have been wildly wrong:

Last week, the algorithms had Penn State 44.5 points over Illinois, yet the Illini won in overtime. Also last week, Wyoming at home was 26.5 points over New Mexico according to the algorithms – New Mexico won by double digits. UAB was supposedly 36.5 points over Rice, but the Owls won 30-24. Two weeks ago, the algorithms put Iowa 42.5 points over visiting Purdue and that turned out to be a blowout in favor of the Boilermakers.

These types of large margins turning into defeats have been rare in the algorithms history (the Penn State loss was the biggest favorite to ever lose in 37 seasons of these ratings), but are popping up this year in a season that has many scratching their heads. Still, the algorithms say take Georgia minus the 14.5 points, so that is what Carlton the Doorman is doing.

Here are the top picks of the week:

Underdog selections— Iowa plus 3.5 over Wisconsin; Indiana plus 5.5 over Maryland; Illinois plus 1.5 over Rutgers.

Favored selections—Wake Forest minus 16.5 over Duke; Marshall minus 21.5 over FIU; Oklahoma State minus 30.5 over Kansas; Georgia minus 14.5 over Florida.

This week’s system margins:

Missouri by 19 over Vanderbilt; Georgia by 37 over Florida; Ole Miss by 4.5 over Auburn; Kentucky EVEN against Mississippi State; Pitt by 21.5 over Miami; Clemson by 16 over Florida State; Notre Dame by 14.5 over North Carolina; Michigan by 4 over Michigan State; Iowa by 6.5 over Wisconsin; Ohio State by 27 over Penn State; Baylor by 4.5 over Texas; Utah by 5 over UCLA; East Carolina by 23 over South Florida; UCF by 23.5 over Temple; Marshall by 43.5 over FIU; FAU by 11.5 over UTEP.

This week’s Top-10:

1. Georgia (131.5)

2. Ohio State (130)

3. Alabama (128.5)

4. Cincinnati (100)

5. Ole Miss (97.5)

6. Pittsburgh (97.5)

7. Oklahoma (91)

8. Auburn (90.5)

9. Michigan (89)

10. Iowa (88.5)

SEC Ratings:

1. Georgia (131.5)

2. Alabama (128.5)

3. Ole Miss (97.5)

4. Auburn (90.5)

5. Texas A&M (87)

6. Arkansas (71)

7. Kentucky (69)

8. Mississippi State (62.5)

9. Tennessee (62)

10. LSU (59)

11. Florida (57)

12. Missouri (21)

13. South Carolina (14.5)

14. Vanderbilt (-23)