Even if the Gators play well will it be enough to upset Texas?

(Photo by Chris Spears)

By any measure, the 9^th-ranked Texas Longhorns (3-1) should turn Saturday’s encounter with Florida (1-3, 0-1 SEC) into a romp in The Swamp. The Longhorns have one of the best defenses in the country and they’re going against the Gators, who have one of the worst offenses. Yeah, Florida’s offense is bad, but the defense is really good. Just ask LSU and Miami, but as well as the Gators played defensively in those two games, they still lost. The Texas offense is led by Arch Manning, who has yet to evoke memories of uncles Peyton and Eli or grandpa Archie.

So why is it that there is this eerie feeling spreading like the plague that Florida is going to do what it hasn’t all season and play with its hair on fire? That probably has something to do with the shakiness in Las Vegas. When the week began Texas was favored by at least 7.5 points. Here it is Friday and the spread has dropped down to 4.5. Considering Texas is 9^th-ranked and began the season as everybody’s favorite to win the national championship when the season began, the spread gives this game the feel of a pick ‘em.

On paper it shouldn’t be anything close to the quarterback shootout that was anticipated when the season began. Arch Manning was exposed in the loss at Ohio State where he turned ordinary into an art form. He has looked much better in the three games since, but the opponents were bottom of the barrel types. DJ Lagway has spent the first four games of the season showing why it’s important to take the live reps in the spring and the first three weeks of August training camp. While going head-to-head against better defenses than the ones Arch Manning has faced, DJ has struggled with every facet of the game.

Assuming both Manning and Lagway are poised to play well, here are a few things to consider:

1. Arch Manning will have to deal with the loudest and most hostile crowd he’s ever seen. Sure, there were 107,000 at the Horseshoe in Columbus, but Ohio State fans are Romper Room compared to the ones at The Swamp. Ohio State fans are amateurs. Florida fans are the real pros. They can make life miserable for Arch. If he plays well, it will be because he is capable of blocking out the eardrum-shattering noise.

2. At some point DJ has to look like the DJ of last year. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per pass after a year in which he averaged 10.0 as a true freshman. He is due to have a breakout game and what better time to do it than against Texas, which didn’t recruit him even though he was the national player of the year?

3. When will Florida’s offensive line start playing up to the hype? They’ve missed far too many assignments and committed way too many ill-timed, drive-killing penalties. One reason the Gators have been so anemic on offense is because the line has played so poorly. There is no position in sports more important than quarterback in football. If the QB is playing well, he usually inspires everyone else to play better. If DJ is hot Saturday will the offensive line rise to the challenge of protecting him and opening holes for Jadan Baugh?

4. The front seven of the Texas defense is about as good as you will find in college football. One of the chief reasons Texas hasn’t allowed more than 269 yards in a game so far has everything to do with the front seven stuffing everything at the line of scrimmage. They have succeeded at making opponents one-dimensional by taking out the running game. If they dominate the line of scrimmage Saturday it will be a long day for the Gators.

5. The Gators are next to last in the country in sacks with three. It’s mind boggling that the defense has played so well without the benefit of a consistent pass rush. A year ago at Texas, the Gators had only one sack, which contributed mightily to their 49-17 defeat. A week later, that same inept pass rush sacked LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier six times.  Can the Gators stage a similar turnaround with Texas at The Swamp? If they can spend the day in Arch Manning’s face, the Gators have a chance.

6. This team is well aware that Billy Napier’s job is hanging by a thread. Some people are predicting that Napier will get pink slipped on Sunday if Texas blows the doors off the Gators. After the blowout loss to Texas a year ago, Napier had one foot out the door of the Heavener Center but he reversed his fortunes in the next four games, all wins. Will the Gators rise up in support of their beleaguered coach Saturday? One win won’t save Napier’s job, but it’s a start. A 6-2 or 7-1 record the rest of the season seems an impossibility but stranger things have happened.

The Gators are due for a great performance in which they play well in all phases of the game – offense, defense and special teams. Texas knows what is at stake. With a schedule that includes Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, (at) Georgia and Texas A&M, they can’t afford a second loss and the pressure that comes with it. Florida can and should play well, but will it be enough to spring the upset? The pick: Texas

SEC FOOTBALL

Kent State (1-3) at No. 5 Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0 SEC): John Mateer is recovering from thumb surgery so he’s out. No big deal there. Oklahoma could clock Kent State with the scout team QB calling the shots. Florida State hosed the Golden Flashes 66-10 a couple of weeks ago. Oklahoma is a 45.5-point favorite. Michael Hawkins Jr. will be the QB and he’ll probably throw for 300-plus yards but nobody will notice unless the bulk of his throws go in the direction of Javonnie Gibson, the Arkansas-Pine Bluff transfer who is finally recovered from a broken leg suffered in the spring. This guy is a stud. When Mateer does come back this will be his go to guy.  The pick: Oklahoma.

Mississippi State (4-1, 0-1 SEC) at No. 6 Texas A&M (4-0, 1-0 SEC): This looked like a surefire prior to the start of the season, but no longer. Moo U as Mississippi State is known in the state of Mississippi is 4-1, the only loss a white knuckler to Tennessee last week. Because this one is on the road, the Bulldogs are 16.5-point underdogs. No problem for Texas A&M, right? Wrong. Through the years the Aggies have this nasty habit of losing games they shouldn’t, so put them on upset alert. Odds are they’re going to win, but Mississippi State is going to make them sweat. Profusely. The pick: Texas A&M

No. 16 Vanderbilt (5-0, 1-0 SEC) at No. 10 Alabama (3-1, 1-0 SEC): A year ago Alabama did the unthinkable and lost to Vanderbilt. That game was in Nashville, which is the prevailing excuse for Alabama this week as the Crimson Tide preps for a Vandy team that is much, much better than last year. Alabama is an 11.5-point favorite and coming off a huge win at Georgia last week. So, all things point to Alabama avenging the 2024 team with a big win. Except for one teensy little matter. Diego Pavia, who Alabama had no answers for a year ago, is back and he’s already thrown for 13 touchdown passes. Does he have the magic in him to spring the upset a second straight year? Kalen DeBoer better hope not. If he lost to Vandy two straight years Bama fans would hang him in effigy all over the campus in Tuscaloosa. White knuckles will be the order of the day. The pick: Alabama

Kentucky (2-2, 0-2 SEC) at No. 12 Georgia (3-1, 1-1 SEC): Since losing to Alabama last week numerous analysts have concluded that this isn’t your typical Georgia team. The defense is good not great. The offense can wear out a bad team but will struggle against a good one. Georgia is fortunate that this week’s opponent is Kentucky, whose bottom 10 offense will make the Bulldogs look good. Georgia is a 20.5-point fave. If this was the typical Georgia team the spread would be at least 35. My how things have changed. The pick: Georgia

MEANWHILE IN TALLAHASSEE, THE ANNUAL WIDE RIGHT BOWL

Third-ranked Miami (4-0) and No. 18 Florida State (3-1, 0-1 SEC) renew their rivalry in the annual Wide Right Bowl, played this year at Doak Campbell Stadium. For the Almost Competitive Conference, this game is high stakes because the Hurricanes and Seminoles are the two highest profile programs. For ACC commish Little Jimmy Phillips everything would have been perfect except FSU did the unthinkable last week by losing to Virginia up in Charlottesville. The ACC needed FSU and Miami to come into the game unbeaten but now it’s an elimination game for Florida State and a blackeye for the league if the Seminoles hand Miami its first loss of the season.

If both teams had come into the game unbeaten, then the loser would still be in playoff contention, but the FSU loss to Virginia created a cosmic shift in the ACC dynamic. If the Seminoles lose Saturday night it might take a miracle of the Walls of Jericho tumbling down proportions for the Seminoles to make the College Football Playoff.  Two losses in a top to bottom weak conference is an almost guarantee that the Seminoles will make the left behind list much as they did in 2023.

A Miami loss does the ACC any good, either. This might be the only game on the Miami schedule that the Hurricanes won’t be prohibitive favorites. Should they lose to FSU they, along with the Seminoles, would play the rest of the games with the pressure of a second loss to an inferior team hanging over their heads.

So who wins it Saturday night? Miami is a 4.5-point favorite on the road. The Hurricanes have a huge offensive line that can pound away at the smaller Seminole defensive front  which couldn’t stop Virginia from running the ball last week. That will be the difference. The pick: Miami