Preview: Florida Gators 1-2, 0-1) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-2, 0-0)

With Billy Napier in lame-duck status, can Florida end its road struggles under the embattled coach?

Mississippi State Offense

Key Players-#2 QB Blake Shapen (6-1 ,210, Sr.), #24 RB Keyvone Lee (6-0, 225, Sr.), #20 RB Johnnie Daniels (5-10, 200, Jr.) #21 RB Davon Booth (5-10, 205 Sr.), #3 WR Kevin Coleman Jr. (5-11, 180, Jr.) #6 WR Jordan Mosley (6-0, 195, Jr.), #7 WR Mario Craver (5-10, 170, Fr.) #18 TE Seydou Traore (6-4, 235, R-Jr.) # OT Makylan Pounders (6-5, 310, Jr./Memphis)

Matchups To Watch:

Florida Defensive Backs v. Mississippi State Receivers, Blake Shapen v. Shemar James and Pup Howard

Offensively, Mississippi State is in transition. After Will Arnett scrapped the long beloved Air Raid, Mississippi State endured a year of inept offense which led to the exodus of several high profile players. Enter Jeff Lebby, who as head coach and offensive coordinator, offers a dynamic attack that helped programs like UCF, Ole Miss and Oklahoma rank in the Top-20 offensively. Baylor quarterback transfer Blake Shapen should help with the transition bringing over 5,000 yards and 30 touchdown from Waco to Starkville. Shapen, an All-Big 12 honorable mention a season ago, has been one of the few early bright spots for the Bulldogs, completing 70 percent of his passes for 834 yards, seven touchdowns and only one interception. While Shapen has been solid, the running game has mirrored the Gators, struggling to make an early impact. Mississippi State ranks last in the SEC in rushing averaging 98 yards rushing per game.

Last week in a loss to the Toledo, the Bulldogs managed just 66 yards rushing on 27 attempts. Keyvone Lee, juco transfer Johnnie Daniels, and Utah State transfer Davon Booth have handled much of the rushing load this season, with Shapen a threat to come out the back door on zone reads. In the air, Shapen will target several receivers, including Kevin Coleman Jr., Jordan Mosley, and highly touted freshman Mario Craver. The trio has combined for 38 catches and 7 touchdowns with tight end Seydou Traore adding eight catches with career high 5 for 40 yards against Toledo. The offensive line is retooled with transfer Makylan Pounders coming over after being part of a solid group at Memphis. 

For the fourth straight week, the Gators find themselves facing a dynamic quarterback with the ability to affect the game with both his legs and arm. Florida continues to put very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks and if given time Shapen has no problem putting the ball where it needs to go. He also has good pocket awareness and, despite being sacked 10 times in three games, has found success. Florida needs to find a way to make him uncomfortable with a totally new offensive line. 

The running back group lacks a home run threat but the Gators have been average at best against the run and surrendered 333 yards rushing to a Texas A&M team that was limited up to that point. Only the Bulldogs rank lower in the SEC against the run than the Gators so you can call this a toss-up when judging either team's ability to stop the run. 

Edge Rusher Kamran James (Chris Spears photo)  

Mississippi State Defense

Key Players-#2 S Isaac Smith (6-0, 205, So.), #7 LB Stone Blanton (6-2, 230, Jr.) #3 S Brylan Lanier (6-1, 190, Jr.), # 44 LB Branden Jennings (6-3, 240 Jr.), #23 DL Treyvion Williams (6-4, 295 R-Fr.)

Matchups to Watch: Florida Offensive Line v. Running The Ball Against Anyone Halfway Decent, Graham Mertz v. Mississippi State Secondary

On defense, the Bulldogs return two starters and have struggled early under first year defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler, who comes to Starkville after serving as outside linebackers coach under Nick Saban at Alabama. Hutzler has dealt with injuries to returning safety Corey Ellington as well as defensive end De’Monte Russell which has put a strain on the Bulldogs defense. Safeties Isaac Smith and Brylan Lanier are physical willing tacklers. Linebacker Stone Blanton returned home to Mississippi after two seasons at South Carolina where he is currently second on the team in tackles. Branden Jennings is a Jacksonville native with athleticism and instincts. He brings plenty of college football experience as well after previous stops at Maryland, UCF and Hinds Community College.

Three of the Bulldogs’ five top five tacklers are safeties. That’s good for their individual stats, bad for the defense as whole. Hutzler’s unit is last in the SEC against the run and next to last in total defense. Florida has been looking to establish the run and has the perfect unit to finally find its footing. Like Florida, the Bulldog defense has struggled to generate turnovers with only two on the year. Pressure on the quarterback has also been limited with the defense only putting the quarterback down three times this year. With Florida possibly looking to steady the QB rotation the trip to Starkville could be an opportunity for Mertz, Johnson and company to put together a solid day and play the complimentary football the Gators have spoken of but rarely seen under Napier. 

Florida receiver Chimere Dike (Chris Spears photo)

The Skinny: The Walking Dead is one of the most popular shows this century.  Unfortunately the state of the Billy Napier tenure at Florida has taken on the title of “Dead Man Walking.”The Gators have talked all week about eliminating distractions, enhancing the level of execution even laying out the importance of scout team in preparation. Not really a new concept. The problem is that when you hear their fearless leader speak, it turns into more of the same. What is always absent is term such as playmaker, aggressive, hitter, great route runner, heavy hitter, etc.; Instead we are bombarded by notions of good character as an indication of how well the offense will perform and the defense will defend this weekend. Mississippi State surrendered 49 points to a Toledo team that while picked to finish second in the MAC would put very little fear in most Power 5 teams. Meaning that this is a game that the Gators should have a solid chance of winning and get just their third road win under Billy Napier. The Gators unfortunately have made a living off of making inferior teams look like their best selves. While Florida will move the ball, the defense has shown no ability to stop anyone who plays outside of the Southern Conference. A loss here makes for an unusually interesting and difficult off week.

Prediction:

Florida Gators 27 Mississippi State 33