An F5 tornado, A Divorce and Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State

For the Gators to beat Mississippi State, the defense will have to come out of witness protection (Photo by Chris Spears)

There is this longstanding joke that asks what do a tornado in Mississippi and a divorce have in common? You’ve probably heard the same joke applied to Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and other states. The answer is someone will lose a trailer. In the case of the Florida Gators (1-2, 0-1 SEC) at Mississippi State (1-2, 0-0 SEC) Saturday (12 noon, ESPN) in Starkville, a Florida loss will have UF fans thinking an F5 has hit the program and it’s time for the divorce.

Both the Florida and Mississippi State fan bases have spent the week filling message boards with demands that their head football coaches should be relieved of their duties. If there is an advantage, at least from a fan base perspective, it’s with Mississippi State, which can at least rationalize that this is Jeff Lebby’s first year on the job and this is only his fourth game. If Lebby loses Saturday in a white knuckles affair, the Mississippi State fan base will think progress was made. A week ago the Bulldogs got blowtorched by Toledo from the Mighty MAC.

This is Florida coach Billy Napier’s third year and fans and boosters alike have grown weary of seeing the same kind of mistake-filled losses they’ve been seeing since he took over in 2022. They’re no longer buying into Napier’s explanations and word on the street is the big money boosters have raised the $26 million it will take to end the head coach’s gainful employment.

Lebby inherited a mess from previous coach Zach Arnett who was fired after going 5-7 in his only year on the job. After three years of Mike Leach’s heave it all over the ball yard Air Raid passing game, Arnett had the audacity to try to run the football. It didn’t work and fans demanded a change. Mississippi State fans can tolerate a loss if the offense puts points on the board and makes it interesting. What they refuse is boring and Arnett was boring.

Florida football has been same old, same old the last three years.  Too many games in which the defense didn’t show, perhaps because they were in witness protection. Too many games lost because of inconsistent offense or play calls that came straight out of “Football for Dummies.” To say the very least, Florida fans have grown weary.

Lebby isn’t from the Mike Leach coaching tree but he learned offense from Art Briles, Josh Heupel and Lane Kiffin so it’s bound to be more exciting than the product Arnett put on the field a year ago. That the Bulldogs throw it for 278 yards a game should be distressing to Florida fans, who have watched two Division I teams’ quarterbacks light it up with hardly a lick of pressure from the UF pass rush.

Defense has been in short supply for the Gators, who stuck it to D1AA Samford but have given up 1,017 yards and 74 points in games against Miami and Texas A&M. If Florida is to win this game, the defense has to generate a pass rush (only one sack against Miami; zero against A&M) and force some turnovers (one against Miami; zero against A&M).

The Gators might luck out in this one because Mississippi State’s offensive line is worse in pass protection than Florida’s. The Bulldogs have given up 10 sacks in three games, but if the Bulldogs can pass protect for Blake Shapen it’s going to be a miserable afternoon for the Gators.   

The Gators head into this game 6-point favorites to win their first game against a Division I opponent since they beat South Carolina on the road last October 14. Beat Mississippi State in a blowout and Napier most likely keeps his job for at least another week. A loss or even a be still my beating heart win and Napier could get gang-gonged by the powers that be sooner and not later.

The formula to win should be relatively simple. Get the ball in the hands of playmakers. Even without Tre Wilson, who had a knee procedure that will keep him out a second game, Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway still have Chimere Dike and Elijhah Badger to throw it to. The Gators will have to get more out of the running game than they’ve gotten either against Miami or Texas A&M. Some balance in the offense should make a difference.  

Defensively, someone has to get pressure on Shapen and someone in the secondary needs to show that it’s not illegal to actually cover a receiver. Odds are it will all come down to the defense but hasn’t that been the case for 11 of the 16 losses the Gators have suffered since Billy Napier became the head coach?

Whoever loses Saturday will have fans screaming that it’s time for a cool change. StarkVegas will be a rocking place Saturday night if Mississippi State wins. If Florida wins, the UF fan base will simply think someone else lost the trailer and that it’s just a matter of time before an F5 hits the Gators. If the Gators lose, expect a press conference to announce a divorce Sunday or Monday.

SEC FOOTBALL

Louisiana-Monroe (2-0) at No. 1 Texas (3-0): Arch Manning will get his first collegiate start at QB in a game the Longhorns are favored by 44.5 points. In the two games he’s played, Manning is 14-18 passing for 318 yards (17.7 per attempt) with five TDPs and zero interceptions. He’s also run the ball six times for 53 yards and two touchdowns. This is an important start, not so much because Manning is going to steal the job from injured starter Quinn Ewers because he’s not, but because Ewers has a history of getting hurt and missing games. If Ewers gets hurt again down the road, Steve Sarkisian will have a backup who has started games in the past. Texas wins in a dial-a-score game.

Georgia Southern (2-1) at No. 5 Ole Miss (3-0): This is a matchup of old buddies who were once head coaches at Southern Cal. Clay Helton was once Lane Kiffin’s quarterback coach at Southern Cal. This is a paycheck game for Georgia Southern which heaves the ball all over the yard but can’t seem to generate a running game. Doesn’t matter. Ole Miss leads the country in rushing defense and is tied for third in sacks. Georgia Southern’s defense is dead last in the Sun Belt, which doesn’t bode well trying to stop Kiffin’s offense, which is best in the country (692 yards per game). It’s the last game for the Ole Miss youngsters to play because SEC play begins next week. Ole Miss easily covers the 36.5-point spread.

No. 6 Tennessee (3-0, 0-0 SEC) at No. 15 Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0 SEC): Everybody is going ga-ga over the Tennessee offense, which averages 639 yards and a nation-leading 63.7 points per game. Now Josh Heupel’s vaunted offense gets a test against a Brent Venables defense. Brent was the co-defensive coordinator at Oklahoma back when Heupel played QB and was offensive coordinator at Oklahoma, so there is some familiarity here. At Clemson Venables dialed up the defense for a pair of national championship teams. Can he figure out how to daze and confuse Tennessee freshman QB Nico Iamaleava? Better yet, can Oklahoma’s inconsistent offense figure out a way to move the ball and score points on a Tennessee defense that ranks second nationally (160.7 yards per game)? The Vols are favored by 6.5 points, but could be on upset alert if they don’t come roaring out of the gate.

Vanderbilt (2-1, 0-0 SEC) at No. 7 Missouri (3-0, 0-0 SEC): Vandy’s bubble burst last week at Georgia State. If the Commodores can’t win on the road at a Sun Belt stadium how are they going to fare in a roadie against the nation’s No. 7 team? This week the Commodores have to face a Missouri team that is giving up just 180 yards per game defensively and offensively grinds out 203 rushing yards a game. A week ago Vandy struggled to stop Georgia State running the ball. Missouri is a 20-point favorite but don’t be surprised if Vandy keeps it close for three quarters.

UCLA (1-1) at No. 16 LSU (2-1): A week ago UCLA got its doors blown off by Indiana in its first game as a member of the Big Ten. The Big Ten will seem like Romper Room compared to Tiger Stadium even if it is a day game. Tiger fans are notoriously sober during day games so they aren’t nearly as loud or mean. Still, if UCLA can’t stop Indiana they aren’t going to have much luck against an LSU passing game that averages 302 yards and has generated 10 touchdown passes so far. LSU really isn’t that good, but the Tigers won’t have to be very good to win this one by more than the 22.5 points they’re favored. Fans will want to get this one over early so they can make up for lost drinking time.

Bowling Green (1-1) at No. 25 Texas A&M (2-1): A couple of weeks ago, Bowling Green had Penn State on the ropes in Happy Valley. Then they realized where they were and who they were playing and let Penn State win the game. Can the Falcons play the Aggies close in College Station? They’re 22.5-point road dogs, so the oddsmakers don’t think so. The Aggies could start Conner Weigman at QB, but why risk another injury to his shoulder in a non-conference game? Besides, the Aggies played very, very well last week with Marcel Reed running the show. The Aggies will do what they did last week against Florida, throw it sparingly and grind it between the tackles for a relatively easy win.

Arkansas (2-1, 0-0 SEC) at Auburn (2-1, 0-0 SEC): A week ago Arkansas struggled to eke out a win over UAB while Auburn did a tap dance on New Mexico behind the play of redshirt freshman QB Hank Brown. Arkansas is running the ball very well through three games (259 yards per) and throwing it even better (328 per game) so how will Auburn’s inconsistent defense stop the Hogs? For Auburn to win the game, the Tigers are going to have to throw it all over the ball yard while hoping they can get enough stops against the run to slow down the Arkansas offense and dual threat QB Taylen Greene. Auburn is a 2.5-point favorite but this is a game that can slip away from the Tigers if they can’t control the Arkansas running game.

Akron (1-2) at South Carolina (2-1): South Carolina knows it should have whacked LSU last week but let a winnable game get away. That won’t be a problem this week because Akron is one of the worst teams in the country. This is a good game to get the offense functioning well. The Gamecocks have an absolute stud running back in Raheim Sanders but they need a passing game from LaNorris Sellers.  The Gamecocks are 27.5-point favorites so this will be a rare occasion for fans to celebrate multiple touchdowns.

Ohio (2-1) at Kentucky (1-2):Brock Vandagriff was supposed to light it up for UK after spending three years apprenticing at Georgia. So far the Kentucky offense ranks 129thnationally and Vandagriff lives among the catfish when it comes to SEC quarterback rankings. The UK defense is fine, but that bad offense is going to make every game white knuckles unless they can figure out how to get Vandagriff untracked. Kentucky is a 20-point favorite,