Fourth down discretion would have been the better part of valor

(Photo by Chris Spears)

It seemed like a good idea at the moment, that decision Billy Napier made with less than 13 minutes left in the game Saturday night and the Florida Gators trailing Texas A&M, 24-17. Following a run up the gut in which Jadan Baugh was stuffed for no gain, the Gators faced fourth-and-6, the ball sitting on the Aggie 49, a situation that calls for a punt.

Well, it should have been a punt. In retrospect, Napier should have sent Tommy Doman out there with orders to hang one high enough that the ball came down wet and inside the A&M 10. Emphasis on should have.

What’s that they say? Discretion is the better part of valor? Any discretion that might have been urging Napier to send in the punt team was overruled. When DJ Lagway misfired on a pass over the middle intended for Vernell Brown III Florida’s chances to spring an upset over the 5^th-ranked Aggies (6-0, 3-0 SEC) dissipated into the atmosphere.

Taking over with 12:48 left, the Aggies ran off 12 plays and 8:09, turning it into a 2-score game with 4:39 left on a 2-yard run by Rueben Owens. During the game-clinching drive that made it a 31-17 game, the Aggies were in no hurry to squeeze off the next play and the Gators, it seemed, were in no hurry to make a stop. There was no stopping the Aggies from grinding the Gators into submission.

Owens’ TD made it a 14-point crater, deep enough that the Gators needed a miracle of parting the Red Sea proportions to stage a comeback but on this night no miracles were to be had.

“I think that the analytics would say at that point you go for it, but in general, yes that's one you think about,” Napier defended his decision following Florida's 34-17 loss. “I think we got to execute the third-down play a little bit better. In general, we got to execute on first and second to stay out of some of these third and longs, but  yeah, you always look back at those when they don't work. I think sometimes they do and you're happy with them, but when they don't you second guess yourself."  

This was a night when there was plenty of second guessing to go around, particularly after the Gators had a house on fire first quarter. In the first quarter, the Gators lit up the Aggie defense for 14 points and 157 yards. DJ Lagway was 10-12 passing for 128 yards and two touchdowns.

How is it that in quarters two through four the Gators managed only 162 yards and three points? Obviously, the Texas A&M defense adjusted, but why didn’t Napier and the Florida offense counter with adjustments of their own? After a rather impressive first quarter, Lagway completed only 7-25 of his passes for 117 yards the rest of the way. The Gators managed to convert only 1-11 on third down.

A week ago against Texas, the Florida offensive line gave Lagway all the time he needed to find open receivers. Against the Aggies the UF offensive line did a dandy impersonation of the guys who resembled matadors in losses to LSU and Miami.

This is how Napier described the meltdown after the first quarter: “They showed up playing a little more man coverage, man pressure, they played bracket to mixed bracket with that. Obviously, a lot of those throws were runs that were tagged with run pass options and we were attacking the corners in cover one. Once we proved that we could win outside, I think they settled down and played a little bit more post safety zone. We were running into light boxes at times we just weren’t, it was muddy in there, we got six for six and we’re getting three. In general, we got to be cleaner in the run game when we’re handing it off in the boxes that are light. And we threw some great RPOs, I thought DJ did a good job in that regard. Our guys made plays outside but not just enough consistency to move it once we got into the scoring area. We got to finish those possessions.”

Got it? Now we know.

After the first quarter, the offense went in the tank. The defense was in the tank from the beginning and, for the most part, stayed in the tank the entire game. This wasn’t the same defense that made life miserable for Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns a week ago. That defense sacked Manning six times, hit him eight others and hurried him 22 times. The defense that took the field against the Aggies couldn’t lay a hand on Marcel Reed, who completed 16-26 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown and ran seven times for 38 yards and another TD. Texas, a week ago, managed only 52 rushing yards. The Aggies pounded away for 183.Texas converted 3-11 on third down. The Aggies converted 9-16.

Was Texas A&M offensive coordinator Collin Klein simply in a playcalling coma in which everything he dialed up worked, or did Florida’s defense leave its game at the team hotel? Whatever it was, the Gators had their worst defensive showing of the season. Couple that with three miserable quarters on offense and it adds up to the fourth loss at the midway point of the 2025 season.

One bad decision didn’t determine the outcome Saturday night, but it was all too reminiscent of what has been going on for the 44 games of the Billy Napier era at the University of Florida. Napier is 21-23 and at least 14 times the Gators have been within a touchdown or a fourth quarter field goal of tying or taking the lead. Too often the final outcome has come down to a decision that seemed like a good idea at the moment.

It happened one more time against the Aggies. How many more times does it happen before someone in charge says no more?

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 4 Ole Miss (6-0, 3-0 SEC) 24, Washington State (3-3) 21: The Rebels won to remain unbeaten but they might tumble a couple of places when the polls come out after struggling to beat Washington State. A 32.5-point favorite, Ole Miss had to hold on for dear life in the fourth quarter to avoid a stunning upset. Trinidad Chambliss threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns, plus ran for one more. Kewan Lacey ran for a career-high 186 yards. Afterward, Lane Kiffin said, “We are ranked fourth but we played like the 84^th-ranked team in the country. Quit reading the rat poison and make plays.”

Texas (4-2, 1-1 SEC) 23, No. 6 Oklahoma (5-1, 1-1 SEC) 6: Lots of credit will be given to Arch Manning but it’s the Texas defense that came up big against Oklahoma, forcing three turnovers and sacking John Mateer five times for -32 yards. Manning was sacked only once and he was a very efficient 21-26 throwing the ball for 160 yards and a touchdown. With no running game to rely on (Oklahoma had 48 yards), Mateer was a sitting duck. Texas avoided the dreaded third loss that would have all but eliminated the Longhorns from eventually making the College Football Playoff field. With only one loss, Oklahoma is still in the running.

No. 8 Alabama (5-1, 3-0 SEC) 27, No. 14 Missouri (5-1, 1-1 SEC) 24: Dijon Lee Jr. intercepted Beau Pribula with 37 seconds remaining to preserve Alabama’s win over Missouri. Alabama turned the tables on Missouri by controlling the football for 38 minutes. Mizzou came into the game leading the nation in time of possession, but the Tigers couldn’t get their defense off the field against Alabama. Missouri’s conservative game plan played right into Alabama’s hands. The Tigers never got Ahmad Hardy (12 carries, 52 yards) untracked and Pribula averaged only six yards per pass attempt. Ty Simpson completed 23-31 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns without throwing a pick. Look for Alabama to move into the top five when the polls come out.

No. 10 Georgia (5-1, 3-1 SEC) 20, Auburn (3-3, 0-3 SEC) 10: Georgia was on the verge of going down 17-0 when Jackson Arnold fumbled at the goal line with 1:32 remaining in the first half. Georgia marched 99 yards in 1:19 for a field goal, then dominated the second half. Auburn racked up 237 offensive yards in the first half, but only 40 in the second. Georgia, which had only 78 yards in the first half, had 218 in the second. Gunner Stockton was 17-24 for 158 passing yards in the second half.

No. 11 LSU (5-1, 2-1 SEC) 20, South Carolina (3-3, 1-3 SEC) 10: LSU’s defense sacked LaNorris Sellers five times while forcing two turnover in handing the Gamecocks their third SEC loss. LSU’s pressure forced Sellers into a terrible 4.59 yards per pass attempt and only 19 net rushing yards in 22 carries. The Tigers were able to generate 166 rushing yards which helped keep the heat off Garrett Nussmeier, who threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns, although he was picked off twice.

No. 12 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) 34, Arkansas (2-4, 0-2 SEC) 31: The Vols sealed the win over Arkansas by running the ball for two first downs in the last three minutes. Tennessee built up a 34-17 lead then held on in the fourth quarter as Taylen Green threw for a pair of touchdowns to lead the Arkansas comeback. Green finished the day with 256 passing yards and two touchdowns, 63 on the ground with another TD. Mike Washington ran for 131 yards as the Razorbacks went off for 496 yards on the UT defense. Tennessee got 485 yards including 264 on the ground. DeSean Bishop ran for 146 and Joey Aguilar threw for 221 and ran for 59.

NEXT SATURDAY

Mississippi State (4-2, 0-2 SEC) at FLORIDA (2-4, 1-2 SEC)

No. 4 Ole Miss (6-0, 3-0 SEC) at No. 10 Georgia (5-1, 3-1 SEC)

No. 5 Texas A&M (6-0, 3-0 SEC) at Arkansas (2-4, 0-2 SEC)

No. 6 Oklahoma (5-1, 1-1 SEC) at South Carolina (3-3, 1-3 SEC)

No. 12 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) at No. 8 Alabama (5-1, 3-0 SEC)

No. 11 LSU (5-1, 2-1 SEC) at No. 20 Vanderbilt (5-1, 1-1 SEC)

No. 14 Missouri (5-1, 1-1 SEC) at Auburn (3-3, 0-3 SEC)

Texas (4-2, 1-1 SEC) at Kentucky (2-4, 0-2 SEC)