Fourth quarters haven't been dead solid perfect for the Florida Gators
“A man can travel far and wide – all the way to shame or glory and back again – but he ain’t ever going to find anything in this world that’s dead solid perfect.” – Kenny Puckett from the Dan Jenkins novel “Dead Solid Perfect”
If we have learned anything at all about the Florida Gators (3-5, 2-3 SEC) eight games into the 2025 football season, not to mention the three previous seasons, it is that no matter how well the Gators have played for three quarters, there is nothing dead solid perfect in the fourth quarter.
The Gators, who take on Kentucky (3-5, 1-5 SEC) in Lexington tonight (7:30 p.m., SEC Network), have this bad habit of playing everybody close. Doesn’t matter if it’s a team ranked in the top five nationally – the Gators have played four that were top five at the time – an up and comer like South Florida, 9th-ranked (at the time) Texas or Mississippi State that played anything like an SEC bottom feeder.
The problem is the fourth quarter. In all five losses (South Florida, LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Georgia) the Gators were within a touchdown or field goal of either the lead or a tie in the fourth quarter. Even in the wins against Division I teams (Texas and Mississippi State) the Gators turned what should have been easy wins into white knuckles affairs.
What is it about this team and the fourth quarter? Why is it that once the final chords of Tom Petty’s “I Won’t Back Down” are struck it is like a signal to self destruct? Since 2022, the Gators have lost 15 times when they were reach out and touch close in the fourth quarter.
So now the Gators take on Kentucky, which will be playing tonight for head ball coach Mark Stoops’ job. He might be the winningest coach in Kentucky history and he might have an almost $40 million buyout, but Mark Stoops is anything but safe. He may not be safe if he wins three of the last four games to qualify for another trip to the winter home of UK football – the Music City Bowl where the Wildcats have played six times – but two losses in the last four might elevate him from on life support to the extinct species list.
Florida has already put Billy Napier on the extinct species list, but last week against Georgia the same thing happened that has been happening since 2022. The Gators blew a fourth quarter lead and lost 24-20 to the 5th-ranked Bulldogs.
This is a winnable game for the Gators, who certainly have more talent than Kentucky, but turning winnable games into fourth quarter disasters has been Florida’s modus operandi the last four years. If the Gators can find a way to avoid doing what they’ve been prone to do in fourth quarters since 2022, there is that dangling carrot of a bowl game still within reach.
A win over the Wildcats won’t make the Gators bowl eligible but win and the illusion of a bowl game starts looking less like a mirage and more like something achievable. Kentucky is feeling the same way, so a game that appears relatively harmless on the Las Vegas oddsmakers’ boards could turn into a bare knuckles brawl.
If the Gators are to pull it off, they’ll have to do it without the Wilsons – Dallas and Tre. They own Florida’s best two games statistically for wide receivers this year. Tre Wilson lit up Georgia for nine catches, 121 yards and a TD, his best game of the season. Against Texas, Dallas Wilson hauled in six catches good for 111 yards and two touchdowns.
There was some good news on the wide receivers front when Vernell Brown III and Aidan Mizell were removed from the questionable list on Thursday, which means they are expected to play. Florida is going to need receivers to step it up against a Kentucky defense that is decent against the run but has had its struggles.
Florida’s defense will look good against Kentucky’s anemic offense so for the Gators to win, DJ Lagway will have to find open receivers and avoid turnovers. The situation is not going to be dead solid perfect, but if the O-line gives Lagway time to throw, the Gators might just defy the fourth quarter trend that has gripped the football program for the last four years.
The pick: FLORIDA
SEC FOOTBALL
No. 3 Texas A&M (8-0, 5-0 SEC) at No. 19 Missouri (6-2, 2-2 SEC): Before Beau Pribula went down with a season-ending injury, this was a game to circle on your calendar. Without Pribula, the Mizzou offense will rely on freshman Tommy Zollers, who looked good against Vandy after Pribula went down. Going against the Vandy defense and the Aggie defense are two different things because Vandy doesn’t have Cashius Howell (9.5 sacks) rushing the QB. Mizzou desperately needs to get Ahmad Hardy untracked. He still leads the SEC in rushing (937 yards) but he has run for only 207 yards in the last three games. If the Tigers can’t run the ball against A&M, they will have zero chance containing Howell when he comes off the edge. Offensively, the Aggies have two of the most explosive wide receivers in the entire country in Mario Carver and KC Concepcion. If Mizzou can’t contain those two they have no chance. The Aggies have big road wins at Notre Dame and LSU. They will get another one Saturday. The pick: Texas A&M
LSU (5-3, 2-3 SEC) at No. 4 Alabama (7-1, 5-0 SEC): Well, we don’t have Brian Kelly to kick around anymore. Interim Frank Wilson brings LSU into Bryant-Denny Stadium and Tiger fans wonder will anything change? LSU has a terrible offensive line which equates to a lousy running game and Garrett Nussmeier averaging 6.8 yards per attempt, which is very pedestrian, particularly for a team that has some of the fastest wide receivers on the planet. A one-dimensional LSU offense plays right into the hands of Alabama, which has the No. 2 pass defense in the SEC. LSU does play defense, but the Tigers are coming off a game in which they were torched for seven touchdowns by Texas A&M. Alabama has struggled to run the football and it has been three games since the Tide had a 400-yard game. If Alabama can’t run, then Ty Simpson will have to be at his best. He's thrown 20 TDPs and just one pick. If he doesn’t turn the ball over, Bama should be good. The pick: Alabama
No. 5 Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC) at Mississippi State (5-4, 1-4 SEC): Georgia has been flirting with disaster the last three weeks and four times this season. The Poodles could just as easily be discovering life among the SEC catfish as they are chasing down a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. With Georgia it seems every game is a potential white knuckler and that includes Saturday in Starkville against a Mississippi State team that could just as easily be 8-1 as 5-4. MSU took Tennessee, Florida and Texas down to the nubs before going belly up. At some point you have to figure one or more of those close calls is going to turn into a win. Georgia has better personnel and a quarterback who seems to come alive in the fourth quarter. If Gunner Stockton does his fourth quarter magic, Georgia will prevail. If not, upset city. The pick: Georgia
The Citadel (4-5) at No. 7 Ole Miss (8-1, 5-1 SEC): Lane Kiffin owns the only 11-win season in Ole Miss history and two of the five 10-win seasons at the school since 1971. Florida, LSU and Auburn would love to have him as their next head coach and apparently so would the Miami Dolphins. Smart money says he does one of two things – stays at Ole Miss or moves to Florida. Meanwhile, Saturday, The Citadel has two chances to beat the 7th-ranked Rebels – No way and no how. The pick: Ole Miss
Auburn (4-5, 1-5 SEC) at No. 15 Vanderbilt (7-2, 3-2 SEC): Auburn fired Hugh Freeze. Was the offensive coordinator shown the door as well? The Tigers will show up in Nashville under interim coach DJ Durkin. DJ is the defensive coordinator. The defense has been playing fine. It’s the offense that needs help. Oh well. It’s Auburn. Meanwhile Vandy is three wins away of the greatest season in school history and Diego Pavia is pushing hard for an invite to New York to be on the Heisman Podium. He has thrown for 2,063 yards and 18 touchdowns, run for 501 more and six scores. He probably won’t win the Heisman but he’s from Vandy. Just getting to New York for the Heisman ceremony is a very big deal. With a big game against Auburn and not only does Pavia stay in the Heisman discussion but the Commodores remain in the College Football Playoff race. The pick: Vanderbilt
Franz Beard – Just wanted to point out that you stated the following – “In all five losses (South Florida, LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Georgia) the Gators were within a touchdown or field goal of either the lead or a tie in the fourth quarter. Even in the wins against Division I teams (South Florida and Texas) the Gators turned what should have been easy wins into white knuckles affairs.” I’m thinking you meant to say Mississippi State and Texas as the two wins against Division I teams, especially since you correctly stated earlier in the paragraph that South Florida was one of the Gators' five losses.
Under Napier the philosophy for the 4th quarter was to take a very conservative approach with the offense and hope the defense could prevent them from losing or they would possibly get a turnover giving the Gators good field position. Lack of creativity resulted in a pretty high number of handoffs to Baugh to eat up the clock in the 4th quarter. And while Baugh is a more than capable running back, when the defense knows that’s going to be THE play, then Baugh will get stopped at the line of scrimmage more often than not. Then after Baugh has been stopped, a try is made to gain yards by passing, but the defense knows that’s going to be the play…
Before this season, Franz, you reminded or pointed out that it takes about 48 to 52 SEC-worthy players on a roster to win a championship. I believe you surmised that Napier had maybe 42, enough to go toe-to-toe against and beat anyone on the schedule. That was prescient. Those missing six or more who were needed to win, coupled with our somewhat higher than the norm injured and gone, have left this Gator team exhausted by 4th quarter knucklers. And there was no Steve Spurrier on the sidelines who almost always found a way to outfox a foe. Lane Kiffin, a man who has to publicly implore Ole Miss fans and students to fill Vaught-Hemingway at a school now try…