Gators can win SEC championship with a win over Arkansas tonight

Boogie Fland (0) has become one of the best perimeter defenders in the nation (Photo by Chris Spears)

The last team that came to the O-Dome hoping to turn a game with the Florida Gators into a track meet was Alabama back on February 1. Bama did what Bama does that game, which is to bomb away from 3-point range and try to beat the Gators down the court for layups. Nice strategy except it didn’t work because Florida destroyed the Crimson Tide in the paint, 72-26, and sent them packing to the tune of 100-77, something like 15-16 points below their scoring average.  

Arkansas, whom the 7^th-ranked Gators (22-6, 13-2 SEC) play tonight at the O-Dome (8:30 p.m., ESPN), has a similar philosophy and it works for 90.6 points per game. John Calipari has three  bombers – Darius Acuff Jr. (22.2 points, 6.1 assists per game), Meleek Thomas (15.2 points) and Billy Richmond III (10.9 points) – who specialize in getting out on the break and lighting it up, making the Razorbacks (21-7, 11-4 SEC) one of the more difficult teams in the country to defend. Opponents score nearly 80 a game on Arkansas but are usually left gasping for air trying to keep up with the pace.

What most opponents don’t anticipate is a Florida team that can adapt to any pace, light up the scoreboard and play smothering defense. The Gators score plenty (86.2 per game) but it’s what they do defensively that sets them apart. Both the kenpom.com and barttorvik.com analytics rate Florida the No. 4 defensive team in the country. During the recent surge that has seen Florida win eight straight games to take command of the Southeastern Conference, the Gators have allowed opponents to hit just 54-185 from the 3-point line, a rather dismal 29.1 percent.

If the Gators hold Arkansas to 29.1 percent – the Razorbacks typically hit 37.5 percent of their threes – it probably means there will be a championship celebration at the O-Dome. Beat Arkansas and the Gators clinch their first SEC championship since 2014 no matter what happens in the last two games. But, as long as the Gators get to 15 SEC wins, they’ll be league champs.

The Gators have the ability to overpower opponents in the paint no matter which end of the floor they’re on. Florida has what is widely recognized as the best 4-man front court rotation in the nation in starters Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Tommy Haugh with Micah Handlogten coming off the bench. They combine to score 46.6 points and grab 31.1 rebounds per game while providing menacing protection around the rim.

Those four contributed eight of Florida’s 11 blocked shots back on Wednesday when the Gators scored a road win over Texas. Florida is the nation’s leader in rebounding, offensive rebounding and rebounding margin (+14 per game).

It is the perimeter rotation of starting guards Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee along with Urban Klavzar and Isaiah Brown that has stepped it up in the last eight games. Florida’s perimeter guys are no longer considered a potential liability due to inconsistency, but now they’re another strength of this team. Defensively, they have played well all season, but particularly during the current winning streak. Offensively, they’re starting to make shots from the perimeter. Lee is 11-26 in his last five games. Fland is 5-9 in his last two. Klavzar is on a 21-42 run during the winning streak while Brown is hitting a season-long 35.1 percent.

The improvement of the guard play is why both CBS and Joe Lunardi have moved the Gators up to the No. 2 line in the brackets projecting the NCAA Tournament field. Not bad for a team that started the season 5-4. Seth Greenberg of ESPN’s College Game Day, which is at the O-Dome today, believes the Gators are capable of moving up to the No. 1 line.

“I think if they win the SEC that means they’re probably winning out, they’re probably a No. 1 seed,” Greenberg said Friday. “Don’t want to put any pressure on the head coach, right? Coaching agility and dealing with starting 5-4 and getting to where they are today, that is the essence of coaching. It really is. Because when you're 5-4, it can be suffocating. He must, I don't know, he has something in him that enables him to just deal with it and pour it to his team. And that's hard to do when you're losing, especially when the expectation is so crazy.”

The expectation tonight will be a Florida win and an SEC championship.

Game notes: Since winning their first SEC championship in 1989, the Gators have won more league titles (7) than any team other than Kentucky (13). Since 2000, the Gators have won more national championships (3) than any team in the SEC. That’s as many championships as Duke and North Carolina have won … In winning the last two games on the road, Florida held Ole Miss and Texas to a combined 7-29 from the 3-point line … All five Florida starters are scoring double figures (Haugh 16.9, Condon 14.3, Fland 11.5, Lee 11.4, Chinyelu 11.3. Klavzar averages 10 off the bench. For the season he’s hitting 40.1 percent from three … Chinyelu is a semifinalist for national defensive player of the year.

Anticipated starting lineups

No. 7 FLORIDA (22-6, 13-2 SEC):  Alex Condon (6-11, 236, JR); Rueben Chinyelu (6-11, 265, JR); Tommy Haugh (6-9, 215, JR); Boogie Fland 6-3, 185, SO); Xaivian Lee (6-4, 185, SR)

No. 20 Arkansas (21-7, 11-4 SEC): Trevon Brazile (6-10, 230, SR); Nick Pringle (6-10, 230, SR); Billy Richmond III (6-6, 205, SO); Meleek Thomas (6-5, 185, FR); Darius Acuff Jr. (6-3, 190, FR)

Saturday’s games

No. 20 Arkansas (21-7, 11-4 SEC) at No. 7 FLORIDA (22-6, 13-2 SEC)

No. 17 Alabama (21-7, 11-4 SEC) at No. 22 Tennessee (20-8, 10-5 SEC)

No. 25 Vanderbilt (22-6, 9-6 SEC) at Kentucky (18-10, 9-6 SEC)

Texas (17-11, 8-7 SEC) at Texas A&M (19-9, 9-6 SEC)

Missouri (19-9, 9-6 SEC) at Mississippi State (13-15, 5-10 SEC)

South Carolina (12-16, 3-12 SEC) at Georgia (19-9, 7-8 SEC)

Ole Miss (11-17, 3-12 SEC) at Auburn (15-13, 6-9 SEC)

Oklahoma (14-14, 4-11 SEC) at LSU (15-13, 3-12 SEC) 

IF THE SEC TOURNAMENT WERE HELD TODAY

Seedings 1-16: 1. FLORIDA (22-6, 13-2 SEC); 2. Alabama (21-7, 11-4 SEC); 3. Arkansas (21-7, 11-4 SEC); 4. Tennessee (20-8, 10-5 SEC); 5. Missouri (19-9, 9-6 SEC); 6. Vanderbilt (22-6, 9-6 SEC); 7. Kentucky (18-10, 9-6 SEC); 8. Texas A&M (19-9, 9-6 SEC); 9. Texas (17-11, 8-7 SEC); 10. Georgia (19-9, 7-8 SEC); 11. Auburn (15-13, 6-9 SEC); 12. Mississippi State (13-15, 5-10 SEC); 13. Oklahoma (14-14, 4-11 SEC); 14. LSU (15-13, 3-12 SEC); 15. Ole Miss (11-17, 3-12 SEC); 16. South Carolina (12-16, 3-12 SEC)

First round matchups (March 11)

1. No. 9 Texas vs. No. 16 South Carolina; 2. No. 12 Mississippi State vs. No. 13 Oklahoma; 3. No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 15 Ole Miss; 4. No. 11 Auburn vs. No. 14 LSU

Second round matchups (March 12)

5. No. 8 Texas A&M vs. Game 1 winner; 6. No. 5 Missouri vs. Game 2 winner; 7. No. 7 Kentucky vs. Game 3. Winner; 8. No. 6 Vanderbilt vs. Game 4 winner

Quarterfinals (March 13)

9. No. 1 Florida vs. Game 5 winner; 10. No. 4 Tennessee vs. Game 6 winner; 11. No. 2 Alabama vs. Game 7 winner; 12. No. 3 Arkansas vs. Game 8 winner

Semifinals (March 14)

13. Winner Game 9 vs. Winner Game 10; 14. Winner Game 11 vs. Winner Game 12

Championship Game (March 15)

SEC in ESPN (Joe Lunardi) bracketology

East: 1. Duke; 2. Purdue; 3. Kansas; 4. Alabama (SEC: 10. Texas A&M)

South: 1. UConn; 2. FLORIDA; 3. Houston; 4. Texas Tech (SEC: 5. Tennessee; 10. Texas)

Midwest: 1. Michigan; 2. Iowa State; 3. Nebraska; 4. Virginia (SEC: 5. Arkansas; 9. Georgia; 10. Missouri; 11. Auburn)

West: 1. Arizona; 2. Illinois; 3. Gonzaga; 4. Michigan State (SEC: 5. Vanderbilt; 7. Kentucky)

SEC in CBS bracketology

East: 1. Duke; 2. Purdue; 3. Michigan State; 4. Alabama (SEC: 10. Georgia)

South: 1. UConn; 2. Purdue; 3. Houston; 4. Gonzaga (SEC: 5. Arkansas; 10. Texas)

Midwest: 1. Michigan; 2. FLORIDA; 3. Kansas; 4. Nebraska (SEC: 5. Tennessee; 9. Missouri; 10. Texas)

West: 1. Arizona; 2. Illinois; 3. Virginia; 4. Vanderbilt (SEC: 10. Auburn)