Napier has been preparing for this moment his entire coaching life

“Be quick, but don’t hurry” – John Wooden

Back on September 13, two days after a 42-28 loss to Stanford that was called “embarrassing” and played before a Los Angeles Coliseum that was only about two-thirds full, Southern Cal fired football coach Clay Helton. There had been plenty of opportunities to fire Helton in the past but USC athletic director Mike Bohn chose to cut ties with Helton two games into the 2021 season, which was Helton’s seventh.

In announcing the firing, Bohn said, “Clay is one of the finest human beings I have met in this industry and he has been a tremendous role model and mentor to our young men. We appreciate his many years of service to our university and wish him nothing but the best.”

It’s what Mike Bohn didn’t say that is important.

Southern Cal was 1-1 at the time but the fear was that if the team got healthy Helton might get the Trojans on a roll, win the Pac-12 championship and then the school would be stuck with a coach whose firing had been demanded by alumni and boosters for years. So, the loss to Stanford was simply a convenient opportunity to fire Helton, give him his $10 million severance package and get a head start on the search for a new head football coach.

Funny how things work out sometimes. Here we are with two games remaining on the Southern Cal schedule (Saturday vs. BYU and December 4 at California) and the head start Bohn thought he had, really hasn’t panned out. Since he hired Luke Fickell at Cincinnati, everybody figured that would be the No. 1 choice, but Fickell has the Bearcats unbeaten (11-0), ranked fourth in the latest College Football Playoff poll and looking very much like they’ll become the first Group of Five team to ever crash the playoff party. Should the Bearcats make the playoff, there’s no way Fickell will leave Cincinnati even if Southern Cal is willing to throw a boatload of money at him.

Fickell wasn’t the only prominent name on the Southern Cal wish list early on. James Franklin was a hot name until Penn State lost some games to fall out of the Big Ten East race, but even then Penn State wasn’t taking any chances. Franklin now has a 10-year contract extension that pays Franklin a guaranteed $7.5 million a year with incentives that can raise it to $10 million. It is thought Southern Cal is down to its B-list candidates and that might mean getting into a bidding war with LSU, which is also down to B-listers.

LSU’s situation is much like Southern Cal. The Tigers fired Ed Orgeron back on October 16, a move that could have waited until the end of the year, but AD Scott Woodward wanted the time to land the replacement in plenty of time to impact recruiting since the early signing period begins on December 15. Anticipating that Woodward would be making a play for Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M gave Fisher a 10-year extension and raised his salary immediately from $7.5 million to $9.16 million with all the money guaranteed. With Fisher off the table, Woodward’s next two targets were Michigan State’s Mel Tucker, who was on Nick Saban’s first staff at LSU back in 2000, and Franklin. Michigan State put the kibosh on that notion by giving Tucker a 10-year, $100 million extension. Franklin got his big extension, too.

At or near the top of both the LSU and Southern Cal B-lists is Dave Aranda, who was the defensive coordinator for Coach Oeaux when he took the Tigers to the 2019 national championship. Aranda is 9-2 this year at Baylor and if he wins this weekend and Oklahoma loses the Bedlam game with Oklahoma State, he’ll be in the Big 12 Championship Game. There are unconfirmed reports that LSU has made Aranda a $9.4 million a year offer but Matt Zenitz of On3 Sports, who usually has his finger on the pulse of matters in the SEC, believes Aranda won’t land at LSU, but instead at either Southern Cal or Washington, which also has an opening.

So if not Aranda at LSU, then who? Billy Napier is less than an hour down the road, has three consecutive seasons with at least 10 wins under his belt, has the Louisiana Rajin Cajuns in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game and he’s apprenticed under Dabo Swinney at Clemson and Nick Saban at Alabama. Apparently, Napier is down the food chain on the LSU most wanted list, and that has raised the eyebrows of Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy, who tweeted, “If LSU lets Florida come into Louisiana and grab Billy Napier without making a serious push for him it could end up being a serious miscalculation. Napier is ready for a big job and he already has great relationships with HS coaches in the state.”

There are conflicting reports regarding LSU and Napier, some saying he’s very much in conversations with LSU and others saying LSU hasn’t even bothered to interview him. Is it because LSU has no interest, or is it because Napier has his sights set on Florida?

Napier to Florida has been picking up steam the last several days, to the point that it was stated on 1010XL in Jacksonville Wednesday that Napier is the guy and the official announcement will come at a press conference in Gainesville whether Sunday or Monday. This would seem to indicate that Napier was athletic director Scott Stricklin’s first choice once Dan Mullen was relieved of his duties, but this entire coaching carousel has been shaped all along by Southern Cal and LSU being in too big a hurry.

By jumping the gun on firing their head coaches too early during the season, both Southern Cal and LSU thought they would have a distinct advantage in landing a big name replacement, but what has happened is they have given athletic directors at Texas A&M, Michigan State and Penn State opportunities to lock up their head coaches with long term deals. That has actually played into the hands of Scott Stricklin.

Florida was never going to be in the running for Fisher or Tucker and the Gator Nation wouldn’t have handled hiring Franklin well when you consider he has four losses already this season. Why hire a coach whose team is completely out of the Big Ten East race and who is 0-4 against the ranked teams he has faced. Florida fans would probably agree that it would have been just as advantageous to keep Mullen as it would be to hire Franklin.

So, while Southern Cal and LSU are still on the clock with fan bases starting to feel the nerves about landing a coach worthy of heading up programs with multiple national championships in their history, Florida is on the verge of bringing in a young coach accustomed to winning (31-5 in the last three seasons), who has been mentored by the two head coaches who have dominated college football since 2009 in Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney.

We can speculate all day what might have been if Fisher or Tucker or Franklin had made an early move or if LSU’s bid to pull Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma with a mega money deal had been accepted, but the ones who should be asking the what if questions are Southern Cal and LSU. They moved quickly but still haven't found their man and the pool of big name candidates they sought has shrunk considerably. Is there a big name candidate ready to leave his current position to take the job at Southern Cal or LSU?

Billy Napier may not have the big name with the instant recognition nationally, but the Gators apparently have the coach who is the best fit for a program that needs consistency both on the field and on the recruiting tails. Napier may not have been a head coach at a Power Five school, but he's been preparing for this moment his entire coaching career. The son of a legendary high school coach, a former college quarterback at Furman and and a relentless recruiter who learned that art from coaches who know and understand that it’s the lifeblood of a championship program, Napier seems to be the answer Florida needs desperately.

If Napier is indeed announced either Sunday or Monday, it will be perceived as one of the quickest coaching searches in recent memory, but considering all that has happened everywhere else, it’s safe to say Scott Stricklin may have been quick, but he didn’t hurry to land his man.