Saving Dan Mullen

Photo by Chris Spears

The situation Dan Mullen and the Gators find themselves into just a couple of days prior to a final two-game end of season parlay that could determine the direction of Florida football the next several years, isn’t all that different from the one Notre Dame faced back in 2016.

Following a most respectable 10-3 2015 season in which the Irish were a possession away from wins over then 12th-ranked Clemson (finished 14-1 and lost to Alabama in the national championship game) and then 13th-ranked Stanford (finished 12-2, ranked third nationally), Notre Dame plummeted to a 4-8 record. Four games into 2016, head coach Brian Kelly fired defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder because in Notre Dame’s three losses the defense gave up 124 points. All three of the losses were in one-possession games that the Irish scored enough points to win if only the defense had done its part.

The Irish were one possession away from wins in seven of the eight losses. Only the 45-28 blowout loss to 12th-ranked Southern Cal in the season’s final game wasn’t a head-scratching close call. Notre Dame fans were calling for Kelly’s head on a platter and no one cared that the Irish were ever so close to an 11-1 record.

There was enormous pressure on Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick to fire Kelly. Everyone from media to boosters to a nation of fans saw the 22-16 record from 2014-16 as proof the program was broken and tail spinning toward a crash of Gerry Faust proportions. A savior was needed, they thought.

Before giving in to the endless array of critics, none of whom seemed all that supportive of retaining Kelly for another year much less beyond, Swarbrick and Kelly had what is best described as a “Come to Jesus” meeting in which it was up to Kelly to convince his boss why he should be given a chance to right the sinking ship. For Kelly it was time for a Hail Mary. For Swarbrick it was time to hold back on any instinct to fire his coach.

Kelly didn’t arrive at the meeting unprepared and Swarbrick caught the vision and gave him the go-ahead to implement. Kelly brought in five new coaches including new coordinators on both sides of the ball – Chip Long on offense, Mike Elko on defense – along with a new strength and conditioning director in Matt Balis and a director of scouting in Bill Rees. Long changed the offense from pass happy to a run-first, play action attack out of a spread. Elko ditched VanGorder’s complicated NFL style defense for a more player-friendly 4-2-5 that is flexible enough to handle the spread and tough enough to deal with the dinosaurs still stuck in ground and pound. Thanks to the renewed strength and toughness brought by Balis, the Irish started winning both lines of scrimmage, something that had been sorely missing the three previous years. Rees, armed with a new recruiting staff and a larger budget, energized recruiting. Academics at Notre Dame have always made recruiting difficult, but Rees and his larger staff were able to pinpoint athletes who could not only deal with the rigors of the classroom but were capable of playing at the highest levels.

Given a second chance to make things good, Kelly delivered. In the years since he staved off firing with his makeover plan, Notre Dame is 52-9.

If Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin intends to keep Dan Mullen as the football coach beyond the Florida State game in a couple of weeks, then he and Mullen should arrange a Zoom meeting with Swarbrick and Kelly for a blueprint to save Dan Mullen and the Florida football program from its third head coach firing and fourth coach search since Urban Meyer retired from UF after the 2010 season. No doubt about it, Mullen needs a plan to not just save his job for one more year, but to put Florida on a success track well into the future.

What Mullen is doing right now isn’t going to work. Critics question that he fully understands the hole he’s dug and other critics say while he may know the hole, he is incapable of digging his way out. But, if he is to remain Florida’s head coach, then he’s got to come up with a plan to address the shortcomings in the program and that includes a look in the mirror and the understanding that if he’s pointing a finger at assistants, staffers, etc., he also must realize that he has three fingers pointing back at the guy looking back at him.

Mullen’s detailed plan for success that starts with the notion that there are very few on his staff – whether that’s coaches or support – with sacred cow status. Perhaps the only assistant coaches who shouldn’t have a worry in the world are wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales and defensive line coach David Turner. Everybody else needs to be scrolling through their Rolodex to prepare for that next job wherever that might be.

If he is to return, the new coaching staff can’t be made up of old buddies but instead new faces, among them coaches confident enough to say no. It has been said by many who observe the Florida football program that Mullen suffers from an abundance of staff familiarity that has stifled growth and kneecapped the recruiting efforts. He needs new faces, new energy and guys who are as good in a recruit’s living room as they are teaching fundamentals on the practice field. Kids want a plan for their success and new assistants need to show an enthusiastic plan that will convince them and their parents that the University of Florida is the best place for them to spend the next 4-5 years.

Mullen especially needs a bright young defensive coordinator whose schemes aren’t so predictable. There was a reason why former coordinator Todd Grantham was called “Third and Grantham” and that is because the element of surprise had long since taken the last bus out of Gainesville. A coach like Houston’s Doug Belk (age 32) makes a lot of sense. A Valdosta native, he has transformed the Cougars into an attacking defense that allows only 27.9 percent conversions on third down. Florida opponents this year convert 37.1 percent of the time. When it comes to getting your defense off the field, that 10-point difference is huge. Imagine if Dan Mullen gets an extra 10-12 plays per game the way he calls an offense.

Another coach that makes plenty of sense is Marquand Manuel, a former Gator captain under Steve Spurrier, who spent eight years playing in the NFL and has spent the last 10 as an NFL coach, earning a Super Bowl ring coaching the secondary of the Seattle Seahawks and two years as the defensive coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons. His experience from growing up in inner city Miami to three-year starter at safety at UF while making All-SEC Academic four years and earning a master’s degree in counseling will resonate well in the living rooms of recruits.

The new defensive coordinator will have to have carte blanche to bring in a staff that can transform the Gators from the nation’s 59th-ranked defense (8th in the SEC) to one that can get the Gators off the field so Mullen can put more points on the board with his offense. There is no question Mullen can put up the points. Hopefully, he will understand that a better coordinator and better defense will result in more possessions and more opportunities for him to show the world that Dan Mullen can scheme and call plays as well as anyone in college football.

Mullen replaced long time offensive line coach John Hevesy when he pink slipped Grantham after the South Carolina loss. Mullen and Hevesy had been working together since they were on Urban Meyer’s first staff at Bowling Green in 2001, the last 13 with Mullen as a head coach. Hevesy was never a great recruiter but his gruff, in-your-face ways grew old and stale even if O-line productivity (7.07 per offensive play, only 9 sacks allowed) remained at a high level. For Florida to dominate the lines of scrimmage in a line of scrimmage league, recruiting has to improve, which means it’s a necessity to find a fresh face O-line coach who is tough but maybe not so in-your-face.

If he is retained, Mullen has to assemble a new staff in a hurry because the early signing window will open for a few days on December 15. It’s generally assumed that unless Mullen is the greatest flipper since the Miami Dolphins had that tank in the Orange Bowl end zone, Florida’s 2022 recruiting class is going to finish way outside the top ten. So how will he compensate? The answer to that will be the transfer portal, which Mel Tucker used to bring in 21 players who have helped flip Michigan State from 2-5 in 2020 to 9-1 and a national top ten ranking in 2021. Tucker has handled the portal the way an NFL general manager deals with free agency, finding players who can fit the Michigan State profile from lesser known outposts such as running back Kenneth Walker III (from Wake Forest) and left tackle Jarrett Horst (from Arkansas State). Walker leads the nation in rushing and is considered the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Horst, who was All-Sun Belt at Arkansas State, is considered the best left tackle in the Big Ten.

The NCAA has enacted a waiver that will allow Division I teams to replace up to seven players who transfer out with players from the transfer portal without it counting against the 25-limit of signees for 2022. Mullen currently has 13 high school players committed to a 2022 recruiting class that ranks 23rd nationally and 9th in the Southeastern Conference. Assuming he can hold on to those 13 and add perhaps five more high school/junior college players, Mullen could bring in 15 transfers who could fill immediate needs and add some maturity to a team that by most accounts will have only 13-15 seniors next year.

Many are already seeing the portal as the next step in recruiting. High school kids will still be the foundation of the program, but with few exceptions they aren’t ready to play immediately. The transfer portal, as Mel Tucker has proven at Michigan State, can give immediate relief with plug and play types. In the case of Dan Mullen, if he is to remain at Florida not just next year but for years to come, then it will be a necessity to use the transfer portal judiciously. He needs speed at wide receiver, at least one running back, replacements for three offensive linemen, some stout D-linemen, inside linebackers with size and a safety or two.

Can he find enough kids who are capable of playing and succeeding in the Southeastern Conference?

All this is based on the possibility that Dan Mullen will return for at least one more season at the University of Florida. There is the possibility that he will be fired after the Florida State game, whether he wins, splits or loses the next two games. If that’s the case then it will be up to Stricklin to have his own plan in place for an immediate replacement, not an easy job in the ever-changing coaching landscape where schools like Michigan State are offering Tucker a re-written 10-year, $10 million a year contract to stay put and where Texas A&M, in anticipation of interest in Jimbo Fisher re-wrote his deal with a $1.6 million raise to $9.1 million with at least $100,000 incremental raises each year of the 10-year deal. With Tucker getting that big raise (from $5 million), anticipate the Aggies will up the ante even more.

Florida wants to be considered an elite school with championship possibilities, but the number of elite coaches who aren’t locked in with big deals is shrinking quickly. Mullen makes $7.6 million a year and to lure the kind of coach who is perceived capable of turning Florida into an instant big winner and challenger to the SEC title, Stricklin is going to have to offer a lot more money. Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, who many believe would jump at the opportunity to come to Florida (the late John Reaves was his father-in-law), will also be on the LSU radar now that Tucker, Fisher and Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley have said thankee but no thankee to a move to Baton Rouge. LSU reportedly was ready to pay Riley $11-12 million a year and may offer Kiffin something similar. Is Florida prepared to pay that kind of price for a new head coach?

Dave Aranda, the Baylor coach who was the defensive coordinator for LSU’s national championship team in 2019, is thought to be on the short list at Southern Cal, which is expected to offer in excess of $8 million. Billy Napier, who has turned Louisiana into a power and has a coaching pedigree of Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban, can have the TCU job if he wants it, is more than a blip on the Virginia Tech radar, and may be the guy LSU turns to in the event Kiffin joins the just say no crowd. Each mention of his name raises his price tag.

Hugh Freeze (Liberty) is out there, but does he want to leave the security of Liberty where he makes $3 million a year for the pressure of winning in the SEC? And, would Florida be willing to overlook the indiscretions that cost Freeze his job at Ole Miss? Hugh Freeze can coach. We know that. He had, shall we say, a not so pristine reputation as a recruiter at Ole Miss but he landed highly regarded classes loaded with talent.

That so many schools are locking down coaches with big financial deals shrinks the talent pool considerably. Does Florida want to get into a bidding war to land a coach like Kiffin, Aranda or Napier? Is Stricklin willing to overlook the baggage of a Hugh Freeze?

Or would he be better off to work hand-in-hand to come up with a plan for saving Dan Mullen? These next two weeks are going to tell us a lot about the direction of the Florida football program. The odds at the moment seem to be more in Mullen’s favor to stay another year based on the shrinking talent pool and the escalating cost of doing business, but the situation is fluid. What might seem inevitable today may turn out to be fake news tomorrow.

So, buckle your seat belt. We may be in for turbulence the next two weeks.