Should the Gators upset Miami does it merely buy time for Napier?

(Photo by Chris Spears)

“Well, we seem to be a little short on brotherly love here.” – Butch Cassidy, opening scene of “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid”

When it comes to the Gator Nation and Billy Napier, we seem to be a little short on brotherly love. It might be easier to find someone capable of locating the proverbial needle in the haystack than it is to find a Gator fan who believes Billy Napier is not only going to survive these next few weeks but go on a winning tear that will not only salvage the season but save his job.

The bulk of Gator fans believe it’s a matter of when not if Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin summons the folks who write the big checks to pony up, it’s buyout time. More than a few are wondering on the message boards why it didn’t happen a couple of weeks ago when the Gators found a way to lose to South Florida in The Swamp. After last week’s debacle in Baton Rouge in which the Gators gave away another winnable game to 3^rd-ranked LSU, those who weren't already convinced that Napier needs to be sent on permanent vacation started texting that famous quote by former Florida athletic director Jeremy Foley: “What should be done eventually must be done immediately.”

There are good reasons why it hasn't happened already, not the least of which is a buyout that hovers around $20-22 million. For now, the prudent thing to do is give Napier an opportunity to right the ship.

That brings us to the question it seems no one wants to ask: What happens if Billy and the Gators spring the upset on 4^th-ranked Miami (3-0) tonight (7:30 p.m., ABC) at Hard Rock Stadium? It is worth asking because last year Napier rallied the troops after the blowout loss to Texas in Austin. Instead of rolling over and playing dead, the Gators upset LSU, followed that up with a win over Ole Miss that knocked the Rebels out of College Football Playoff contention, then won decisively over Florida State in Tallahassee and Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl.

Even though Scott Stricklin had offered Napier a vote of confidence prior to the Georgia game, nobody really believed he would stick with Billy if the Gators followed up the Texas blowout with losses to LSU and Ole Miss. Napier took the guesswork out of the situation by winning four in a row.

The end of the 2024 season seems like an episode of “Sesame Street” compared to what is ahead of the Gators. Of the nine games remaining on the Florida schedule, only a home game with unbeaten Mississippi State and a road game to Kentucky are against teams that aren’t ranked among the top 15 in the Associated Press poll. After Miami, the Gators get a week off, then return to action at home against No. 8 Texas followed by a roadie to No. 10 Texas A&M. Also still on the schedule are No. 5 Georgia in Jacksonville, at No. 13 Ole Miss, home against No. 15 Tennessee and No. 7 Florida State.

All the ranked teams still have a legitimate shot at making both the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta and the College Football Playoff. If you ask Florida fans, the Gators’ season is all but over.

Really? Okay, it could be prior to the end of September. Lose to Miami and follow that up with a loss to Texas and the Gators are 1-4, 0-2 in the SEC. But again, what happens if the Gators suddenly find the mojo they were expected to have when the season began? What happens if the Gators stop inventing ways to lose games they should win?

That seems to be a far-fetched notion but stranger things have happened. I saw the Will Grier to Antonio Callaway pass against Tennessee in 2015. Callaway got a block from Bandon Powell that wiped out two Vol defenders, allowing Callaway to sprint to the end zone for the TD that gave the Gators a 28-27 win. I saw the Heave to Cleave in 2017. Ironically, that one covered 63 yards to beat the Vols, too. Feleipe Franks broke contain in the pocket, sprinted to his right and then launched a bomb that Tyrie Cleveland caught in the end zone for a touchdown that gave the Gators a 26-20 win.

Strange things have and do continue to happen. People will be talking for years about Walter Clayton Jr. flying past Houston’s Emanuel Sharp on the final play of the NCAA basketball championship game at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Sharp was in the air, didn’t have a shot and let the ball roll on the floor as the clock ticked down to 00:00. Houston people still can’t believe Sharp didn’t get a shot off that could have won the game. Florida people are still giddy that the Gators beat Houston, 65-63.

So back to the question. What happens if Napier brings out the best in the Gators tonight and they knock off Miami? Sure, it’s only one game and the final eight games on the schedule are daunting, but it’s like the ancient Chinese philosopher Lao Tze once said: “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”

In football terms, every winning streak begins with a single win.

As improbable as it seems that the Gators can not only beat the Hurricanes but do it in Miami, it’s not an impossibility. Florida could have and should have beaten LSU last week in Baton Rouge. A rash of stupid mistakes did the Gators in, but take away the mistakes and Florida wins the game.

Of course, if a frog had wings he wouldn’t bump his butt every time he jumps.

Florida can win this game but a lot of things will have to go right for the Gators and they might need some help from Miami to pull it off. DJ Lagway, for instance, has to complete passes to his own team unlike last week when he completed five to LSU including one that was run back for a TD. Florida’s offensive line, whose holding calls have nullified three touchdowns in the last two games, has to avoid critical penalties and slow down the Miami pass rush to a creep. They need to give Jadan Baugh enough of a crease enough times that he can get to the second level and do that voo doo that he does so well in the open field. The defense has to muster a pass rush that can make life miserable for Carson Beck and the safeties can’t get lost in space, allowing Miami receivers to find open space deep down the field. Special teams have to be special.

Sounds simple, but as the first three games have told us, nothing is simple when it comes to this Florida football team.

And just for argument’s sake, supposing the Gators get the unexpected win. There will still be eight remaining games. That’s eight opportunities to win, or as the perpetual pessimist might point out, that’s eight opportunities to lose again.

One win will buy time for Napier but he needs a lot more than a single win even if it is against the No. 4 team in the country and an in-state rival. A win Saturday could be the start of a winning streak that results in a respectable finish.

There is also this distinct possibility: A win over Miami could simply delay the inevitable.