Thoughts of the Day: September 1, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Thursday morning:

HEAVY LIFTING IS OVER FOR SEASON OPENER WITH UTAH

“The hay’s in the barn to some degree,” Billy Napier said Wednesday after the Florida Gators completed their final tough practice for Saturday night’s season opener in The Swamp against 7th-ranked Utah (7 p.m., ESPN). “I do think it’s important from this point forward it’s going to be a lot of mental work. We’ll polish this thing up tomorrow and certain again on Friday and then all the way up to the kickoff.”

The Gators will be cleaning up a few loose ends from the Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday practices today, then Friday will be a walk-through. After that, it’s game on.

Napier answered a few questions Wednesday but really didn’t say anything revealing. It might have been the upset of the century if he had done that. He did release the depth chart for the game and will be doing that on Wednesday before every game this season.

Here is the Florida depth chart ahead of the Utah game (starter in bold face):

Offense WR: Xzavier Henderson; Daejon Reynolds or Marcus Burke

WR: Justin Shorter; Ja’Quavion Fraziars

WR: Ricky Pearsall or Trent Whittemore; Ja’Markis Weston

LT: Richard Gouraige; Kamryn Waites

LG: Ethan White; Richie Leonard IV C: Kingsley Eguakun; Jake Slaughter

RG: O’Cyrus Torrence; Josh Braun

RT: Michael Tarquin; Austin Barber TE: Dante Zanders; Keon Zipperer

QB: Anthony Richardson; Jalen Kitna or Kyle Engel

RB: Nay’Quan Wright; Montrell Johnson Jr. or Trevor Etienne

Defense DE: Princely Uanmielen; Justus Boone NT: Jalen Lee; Desmond Watson; Jaelin Humphries; Jamari Lyons

DE: Gervon Dexter Sr.; Tyreak Sapp; Chris McClellan

JACK: Brenton Cox Jr.; Antwayn Powell-Ryland Jr.; Lloyd Summerall III or David Reese LB: Ventrell Miller; Scooby Williams; Derek Wingo LB: Amari Burney; Shemar James; Diwun Black

STAR: Tre’Vez Johnson; Jadarrius Perkins; Kamar Wilcoxson CB: Jason Marshall Jr.; Devin Moore; Jordan Young CB: Avery Helm; Jalen Kimber; Ethan Pouncey

S: Trey Dean III; Donovan McMillon or Miguel Mitchell

S: Rashad Torrence III; Kamari Wilson; Corey Collier Jr.

Special Teams KO/PK: Adam Mihalek or Trey Smack

HOLDER: Jeremy Crashaw; Jacob Watkins P: Jeremy Crashaw; Jacob Watkins LS: Marco Ortiz; Rocco Underwood KOR: Ja’Markis Weston; Trevor Etienne or Nay’Quan Wright; Xzavier Henderson PR: Xzavier Henderson; Jason Marshall Jr. or Trevor Etienne

Injured: TE Arlis Boardingham; CB Jaydon Hill; QB Jack Miller III; OT David Conner

SEC football

#1 Alabama (0-0): Nick Saban was asked for an update on the injury status of freshmen Aaron Anderson, Isaiah Hastings, Earl Little and Elijah Pritchett. His response: “I’m not gonna give an injury report in here every week, okay? When those guys are ready to play, we’ll let you know” … Bama is a 41.5-point favorite to beat Utah State Saturday.

#19 Arkansas (0-0): ESPN analyst Greg McElroy the Razorbacks ground and pound approach will do to No. 23 Cincinnati what Alabama did to the Bearcats in last year’s College Football Playoff. “Arkansas is built very similar to Alabama … the only difference is Arkansas has a 230-pound quarterback in KJ Jefferson that also wants to contribute in the running game,” McElroy said … Arkansas is favored by 6.5 points.

Auburn (0-0): Among the reasons HBC Bryan Harsin chose TJ Finley to be his starting QB for at least the season opener with Mercer: “He’s battle-tested in games. He’s gotten hit before.”

#3 Georgia (0-0): Kirby Smart expects running back Kendal Milton to be ready to go Saturday against #11 Oregon. Milton has been nursing a tender hamstring … Georgia is a 17-point favorite.

#20 Kentucky (0-0): For their season opener with Miami (OH), the Wildcats will be starting true freshmen Dane Key and Barion Brown at wide receiver … Kentucky is favored by 16 points.

LSU (0-0): Either Jayden Daniels and Garrett Nussmeier will start at QB vs. FSU in New Orleans Monday night, but HBC Brian Kelly won’t publicly say which one although he says he knew 48 hours ago. “We were so close to the game that it didn’t make sense [to name a starter],” Kelly said, as if that makes much sense. LSU is favored to win by three.

Mississippi State (0-0): Asked on the SEC Coaches Teleconference about the controversial call by an SEC officiating crew that cost the Bulldogs their game against Memphis, Mike Leach replied, “Well, I didn’t make the call. The officials did.” Leach is hoping for better officiating Saturday when Leach gets his rematch with Memphis in Starkville. The Bulldogs are 16-point favorites.

Missouri (0-0): QB Brady Cook has thrown only 58 passes at Mizzou, but HBC Eli Drinkwitz says, “I have a lot of confidence in his ability.” Cook gets the start tonight when Mizzou takes on Louisiana Tech. The Tigers are favored by 20.5 points.

#21 Ole Miss (0-0): On the SEC Coaches Teleconference HBC Lane Kiffin said he’s not holding back in naming a starting QB between Southern Cal transfer Jaxson Dart and Luke Altmeyer. “We haven’t made a decision so it’s not a competitive withhold or anything,” Kiffin said. “The guys are incredibly even” … Ole Miss is favored by 21.5 points in Saturday’s opener vs. Troy.

South Carolina (0-0): The Gamecocks go into Saturday’s season opener with Georgia State in much better shape at QB with former Oklahoma starter Spencer Rattler and Luke Doty, who has started several games at South Carolina. “Last year at this time we were getting ready to go into a game with a guy who was a graduate assistant [at QB],” HBC Shane Beamer said on the SEC Coaches Teleconference … South Carolina is favored by 12.5 points.

Tennessee (0-0): The Vols released a hype video ahead of their season opener with Ball State. Hype? For Ball State? Oh, sure. We forget that the AD at Tennessee is Danny White, who declared UCF national champs in 2017. The Vols are mere 36-point favorites.

#6 Texas A&M (0-0): Jimbo Fisher says being a quarterback is a lot like being a mother. “You have to clean up everyone else’s messes,” Fisher said, a bit strange since he could start the mother superior at a convent against Sam Houston Saturday.

Vanderbilt (1-0): Vanderbilt HBC Clark Lea dismissed freshman linebacker Daniel Martin and freshman running back Maurice Edward's. In announcing the dismissal, just days before the Commodores play Elon in their home opener, Lea said, “We have a lot of guys in the locker room we lean upon who are going to step into roles moving forward. We’re not going to bat an eye.”

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

#9 Oklahoma (0-0): Putting his roster in perspective ahead of Saturday’s season opener with UTEP, HBC Brent Venables said, “I believe it’s over 50 percent of our roster has never been in a Sooner football game.” Not that it really matters. Oklahoma is a 30.5-point favorite.

Texas (0-0): Defensive back D’Shawn Jamison says the Longhorns are “a team that wants to win.” That’s probably comforting to HBC Steve Sarkisian, who will lose his job if the Longhorns don’t win. The Longhorns are 37.5-point favorites over Louisiana-Monroe, which promises to take its paycheck beating like real men.

The SEC Soothsayer

Thursday’s games

Ball State (0-0) at Tennessee (0-0): If you’ve talked to any Vol fans lately or read some of their drivel on Twitter, then you know that they believe their football mojo has returned after a rather long hiatus. They think Josh Heupel has the Vols ready to pillage and plunder through an entire 12-game schedule that includes SEC games with Florida, Kentucky and Georgia from the SEC East as well as Alabama and LSU from the SEC West. On Monday you’ll be hearing more “we’re back, baby!” from Vol fans after they obliterate Ball State. The sayer says sooth!: Tennessee 52, Ball State 14

Louisiana Tech (0-0) at Missouri (0-0): There is good news ahead of tonight’s game with Louisiana Tech. Tech coach Sonny Cumbie is a Mike Leach Air Raid product, which means there will be very little in the way of a commitment to run the ball. Since Mizzou gave up 5.32 yards per carry and 32 rushing touchdowns last year, this can only be viewed as a sign from God that the Tigers will open the season 1-0. The Sayer says sooth!: Missouri 37, Louisiana Tech 24

Expanding the College Football Playoff

A year ago, “The Alliance” of Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren, ACC commissioner Little Jimmy Phillips and Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff formed the voting block that torpedoed expansion of the College Football Playoff from four to 12 teams. Why? Because they were mad that Greg Sankey had beaten all three to the punch by adding Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC.

Now everybody is singing a different tune. The CFP Board of Managers will be holding a virtual meeting today that could lead to expansion by 2024. No longer is anyone holding on to the 4-team playoff, but 12 seems the minimum with 16 a possibility. AAC commissioner Mike Aresco thinks a 16-team playoff with all 10 conference champs and six at-large teams would be the best scenario.”

Whether it’s agreeing to a 12-team playoff or one with 16 teams, the payout will expand from the current $450 million to perhaps three times that much. And that is precisely why there will be no self-serving idiots standing in the way of expansion this time.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The Big 12 Conference along with Fox and ESPN have agreed to begin negotiating a new TV deal ahead of the 2024 expiration of the one currently in place. The Big 12 has incentive to get a new deal in place and ESPN has the motivation to get a deal done since it could free up Texas and Oklahoma to join the Southeastern Conference in 2024 when the new ESPN deal with the SEC kicks in.

This is where things get a little complicated. Unless Fox can land an exclusive deal with the Big 12 or prevent the Big Ten from destroying what’s left of the Pac-12, it will be broadcasting only Big Ten games on Saturdays. At some point, the network has to realize there will be a saturation point for Big Ten football so landing another conference gives some scheduling flexibility.

Fox may be outbid by ESPN but it has the potential to throw a 2-year wrench into ESPN’s SEC plans. Texas and Oklahoma are bound by exit fees and grant of rights with the Big 12 that could total as much as $170 million each. ESPN, in exchange for releasing Texas and Oklahoma in 2024, could offer the Big 12 a media deal that would keep the league at or possibly a little bit beyond its current per year payout of $43 million. Of course, that might require ESPN, perhaps with a little help from the SEC, to kick in some of the exit fee/grant of rights money. Fox could refuse to enter into any agreement that would let Texas and Oklahoma leave the Big 12 early since it would prevent Fox from broadcasting any UT or OU games for those two years.

There is also the possibility that Fox might agree to let Texas and Oklahoma go to the SEC in exchange for the exclusive media contract with the Big 12. Fox already stands to gain when the Big Ten does what everyone expects by poaching Stanford, California, Oregon and Washington from the Pac-12. When and if that happens, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado will join the Big 12. In Fox-think, that would give it media control of the Big Ten and Big 12, leaving ESPN with the SEC and ACC. Of course, the ACC would be happy if this were to occur since ESPN would probably throw about $300-400 million annually its way which would mean something like $60 million a year to distribute to each school.

Fox definitely wants to delay the renegotiation of the ESPN deal with the SEC that will take place when Texas and Oklahoma are paroled by the Big 12. As Matt Hayes writes in Saturday Down South, “The SEC/ESPN deal begins in 2024, and once escalator clauses are executed with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma, will pay at least $1.5 billion annually to the conference through 2034.” In other words, SEC schools will be making every bit as much if not more than the Big Ten with its Fox, CBS and NBC deal. And consider this: SEC games will generate more viewers than Big Ten so more advertising revenue will mean bigger payouts.