Trying to make sense of whatever is next for Lane Kiffin and UF

(Photo by Loren Meadows)

"Did you ever have to make up your mind?

Say yes to one and leave the other behind,

It's not often easy, it's not often kind

Did you ever have to make up your mind?" -- The Lovin' Spoonful, "Did You Ever Have to Make Up Your Mind?"

He’s staying at Ole Miss. He’s agreed in principle to a deal with LSU and Coach O will be his defensive coordinator. No, it’s Florida. The deal is done and he’s just waiting for the end of the Ole Miss season. Oh, and Coach O will be coming with him. Another done deal. Wait, the Atlanta Falcons are going to go after him hot and heavy. Hold on there. Dabo Swinney has reached out to Florida. So has Lincoln Riley. Dan Quinn is ready to leave the NFL to coach the Gators. Jon Gruden is going to coach Arkansas. Jon Sumrall will be the head coach at LSU, Auburn or, if Lane leaves, Ole Miss.

That is one hour worth of commentary I got Sunday afternoon. As one sage text message cowboy told me, “Everybody has an opinion and opinions are just like rectums. All of them stink.”

So here is an attempt to separate a bit of fast fiction from common sensical truth.

1. This will not be a bidding war. Jimmy Sexton has laid out the amount of money it’s going to take to land Lane, so the contenders have already flashed their cash. It is NOT going to be about the amount of money, but it will be about who Lane Kiffin and Jimmy Sexton trust.

2. I believe it will come down to Florida and Ole Miss. I believe if Lane Kiffin trusts the people who write the checks for Florida, then he will be a Gator next year. If he doesn’t trust them, he will remain at Ole Miss where he trusts the AD, Keith Carter.

3. I do not believe Scott Stricklin will have the final say in this matter. He may be one voice, but he won’t be THE voice although he will be the spokesman for the group.

4. I do NOT believe he will be going to LSU and it will come down to trust. LSU fired a coach who had won 29 games in three previous seasons, had a 5-3 record at the time he was fired, and has since tried to renege on the buyout money. How do you trust people like that? You don’t.

5. Wherever Lane is coaching next year, Coach O will be coaching with him.

6. Just say no to the pros. Ain’t gonna happen.

7. Dabo is not happy at Clemson. He could have the Arkansas job with a phone call. He’s represented by Russ Campbell and Patrick Strong of Balch Sports. They have let it be known that if UF were interested in Dabo, he would be most happy to listen.

8. As for Lincoln Riley, the words to Jimmy Buffett’s “Come Monday” say it best. “California has worn me quite thin …” He’s available.

9. The Gators could do far worse than Dan Quinn, once Will Muschamp’s defensive coordinator and now coach of the Washington Communists. Dan’s OC is Kliff Kingsbury, a fine coordinator but a so-so head coach. Let him call plays and he’s just fine.

10. Jon Gruden will coach somewhere. He could be closing in on the job at Florida Atlantic.

11. Jon Sumrall is best positioned to make a great leap forward. Figure he will be coaching in the SEC next year. It is a matter of where not if.

12. Things set up well for the Gators to land Kiffin, but patience is required. Circus poodles will jump through fewer hoops but when an announcement is made, Florida should be in very good shape.  

Associated Press top 25: 1. Ohio State 11-0; 2. Indiana 11-0; 3. Texas A&M 11-0; 4. Georgia 10-1; 5. Oregon 10-1; 6. Ole Miss 10-1; 7. Texas Tech 10-1; 8. Oklahoma 9-2; 9. Notre Dame 9-2; 10. Alabama 9-2; 11. BYU 10-1; 12. Vanderbilt 9-2; 13. Miami 9-2; 14. Utah 9-2; 15. Michigan 9-2; 16. Texas 8-3; 17. Virginia 9-2; 18. Tennessee 8-3; 19. Southern California 8-3; 20. James Madison 10-1; 21. North Texas 10-1; 22. Tulane 9-2; 23. Georgia Tech 9-2; 24. Pittsburgh 8-3; 25. SMU 8-3

AFCA Coaches top 25: 1. Ohio State 11-0; 2. Indiana 11-0; 3. Texas A&M 11-0; 4. Georgia 10-1; 5. Oregon 10-1; 6. Ole Miss 10-1; 7. Texas Tech 10-1; 8. Oklahoma 9-2; 9. Notre Dame 9-2; 10. Alabama 9-2; 11. BYU 11-1; 12. Vanderbilt 9-2; 13. Miami 9-2; 14. Utah 9-2; 15. Michigan 9-2; 16. Texas 8-3; 17. Virginia 9-2; 18. Tennessee 8-3; 19. Georgia Tech 9-2; 20. Southern California 8-3; 21. James Madison 10-1; 22. North Texas 10-1; 23. Tulane 9-2; 24. Pittsburgh 8-3; 25. SMU 8-3

SEC FOOTBALL

(Associated Press rankings)

No. 10 Alabama (9-2, 6-1 SEC): Alabama makes the SEC championship game with a win over Auburn, but a loss in the championship game would torpedo Bama’s chances of making the College Football Playoff. How would two straight seasons with three losses and not making the playoff sit with Bama fans? Saturday: at Auburn (5-6, 1-6 SEC)

Arkansas (2-9, 0-7 SEC): The difference between 2-9 and 8-3? Arkansas has lost six games by six or fewer points. Saturday: Missouri (7-4, 3-4 SEC)

Auburn (5-6, 1-6 SEC): Auburn is a mere 5.5-point underdog to 10^th-ranked Alabama. With freshman Duece Knight at quarterback Auburn thinks it has a legitimate chance. In his first start against Mercer, Knight accounted for 401 yards of offense (239 passing, 162 rushing) and six touchdowns (2 passing, 4 rushing). Should Auburn spring the upset the Tigers will make a bowl game and there is a very good chance interim head coach DJ Durkin sheds the interim label. Saturday: No. 10 Alabama (9-2, 6-1 SEC)

No. 4 Georgia (10-1, 7-1 SEC): Backup O-lineman Nyier Daniels was arrested and charged with multiple felonies after fleeing from police in Commerce, Georgia Sunday. Friday: at Georgia Tech (9-2)

Kentucky (5-6, 2-5 SEC): The Wildcats managed only 31 rushing yards and 315 overall in their loss to Vanderbilt … Beat Louisville and the Wildcats are going bowling. Saturday: at Louisville (7-4)

LSU (7-4, 3-4 SEC): The Tigers eked out a 13-10 win over Western Kentucky from Conference USA. It must have been as interesting as watching paint peel. LSU managed 328 yards of offense, WKU 152. Saturday: at No. 8 Oklahoma (9-2, 5-2 SEC)

Mississippi State (5-6, 1-6 SEC): Win or lose in the Egg Bowl it’s been a year for improvement for Jeff Lebby and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have already improved by three wins over last year’s totals. There is a 6-point improvement on both points per game for and points per game against. Friday: No. 6 Ole Miss (10-1, 6-1)

Missouri (7-4, 3-4 SEC): Missouri is 7-0 against unranked opponents, 0-4 against ranked opponents this year … Ahmad Hardy (1,403 rushing yards) is second nationally, 41 yards off the pace. Saturday: at Arkansas (2-9, 0-7)

No. 8 Oklahoma (9-2, 5-2 SEC): The Sooners who lead the SEC in scoring defense (14 points per game) lead the nation in sacks with 41. Saturday: LSU (7-4, 3-4)

South Carolina (4-7, 1-7 SEC): The Gamecocks scored 51 points on Coastal Carolina. Since they had the good sense to fire Mike Shula as offensive coordinator, they've scored 81 points. Saturday: Clemson (6-5)

No. 18 Tennessee (8-3, 4-3 SEC): The Vols lead the Southeastern Conference in scoring (42.3 points per game) but they’re No. 14 in the league in scoring defense (27.3 per game) … Joey Aguilar is the first SEC quarterback with more than 3,000 yards passing (3,145). Saturday: No. 12 Vanderbilt (9-2, 5-2)

No. 16 Texas (8-3, 4-3 SEC): Despite the early issues, Arch Manning has turned in a good enough season that he will be among the Heisman favorites next year. Manning has thrown for 2,763 yards and 23 touchdowns while running for another seven. Friday: No. 3 Texas A&M (11-0, 7-0 SEC)

No. 3 Texas A&M (11-0, 7-0 SEC): The Aggies are No. 2 nationally in sacks with 39. Cashius Howell leads the Aggies with 11.5 sacks, which is tied for second nationally. Friday: at Texas (8-3, 4-3 SEC)

No. 12 Vanderbilt (9-2, 5-2 SEC): Diego Pavia deserves to be on the Heisman podium. He has thrown for 2,924 yards and 26 touchdowns while running for 661 and eight more TDs … If Vandy can beat Tennessee, the Commodores will set the single season record for wins in school history (10). Saturday: at No. 18 Tennessee (8-3, 4-3 SEC)

Playoff Possibilities

SEC: The Aggies (11-0) are a lock for the College Football Playoff, but they have to beat Texas (8-3) to be assured of the SEC championship game. Alabama (9-2) will make the SEC championship game by beating Auburn, but the Tide could fall from playoff grace if it loses the league championship game. Georgia (10-1) makes the SEC championship game if Alabama loses to Auburn. Oklahoma (9-2) makes the playoff with a win over LSU (7-4). Vanderbilt (9-2) can make the playoff by beating Tennessee combined with an Alabama loss to either to Auburn or in the SEC title game, or with Michigan (9-2) losing to Ohio State. Prediction: Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss and Oklahoma make the playoff. Vanderbilt with a lot of help.

Big Ten: Ohio State (11-0) hasn’t beaten Michigan (9-2) since 2020. The Buckeyes will still make the playoff win or lose, but lose to the Wolverines and they lose the tiebreaker so Michigan makes the league title game. Indiana (11-0) only needs a win over Purdue to cap an unbeaten regular season, the Big Ten championship game and the playoff. Oregon (10-1) has a difficult roadie at Washington (8-3). Prediction: Ohio State and Indiana make the Big Ten championship game and the playoff. Oregon will beat Washington. Michigan won’t make it with three losses.

Big 12: Texas Tech (10-1) and BYU (10-1) are on a collision course to play in the conference championship game. Most experts think Texas Tech can play with anyone in the country. BYU needs to either win the league championship or go white knuckles ina loss for the Big 12 to get two teams in. Prediction: Texas Tech is conference champ but BYU gets in as the second team.

ACC: Virginia (9-2), Pittsburgh (8-3) and SMU (8-3) all have one league loss. Virginia has to finish up with Virginia Tech (3-8) while Pitt has to go to Miami (9-2) and SMU has to visit California (6-5). It should come down to Virginia and SMU in the ACC championship game. Prediction: SMU wins the ACC but nobody else sneaks in.  

American: Currently, Tulane (9-2) is the highest ranked Group of Five in the CFP poll, but the Green Wave will have to deal with very hot North Texas (10-1) in the conference championship game. Will either one have a leg up on James Madison if Madison is 12-1 after the Sun Belt title game? Prediction: North Texas goes 11-1 and gets the Group of Five bid.

Sun Belt: James Madison (10-1) has already clinched its division and will face either Troy (7-4) or Southern Miss (7-4) in the conference championship game. The Dukes need to close out their regular season with a win over Coastal Carolina and then win the conference championship to have a shot at the College Football Playoff. Prediction: James Madison goes 12-1 but strength of schedule kills the Dukes making the CFP.

Mountain West: San Diego State (9-2) is the only MWC team with a chance to get the Group of Five bid. The Aztecs still have work to do against New Mexico (8-3) and then the conference championship game which could be Boise State (7-4) or UNLV (9-2). Prediction: San Diego State has a great defense but not enough offense to make CFP voters include the Aztecs even though they will finish 11-2.