Win or lose Saturday, it is a full scale dilemma for the Gators

(Photo by Chris Spears)

The usual intrigue who wins and who loses will take a backseat to what happens next for the Florida Gators (2-4, 1-2 SEC). Among the rumors and innuendo swirling around head coach Billy Napier is one that says win or lose against Mississippi State (4-2, 0-2 SEC) Napier will have coached his last game as the UF coach when the scoreboard clocks strike zero.

There is no mistaking the deep hole in which Billy Napier finds himself. Rather than the expected breakout season that built upon the momentum of the 4-game winning streak at the end of 2024, the Gators have reverted to their tried and true victory aversion mode that characterized the first two years of the Napier era at UF. At one point in all four losses this season the Gators have been within a touchdown or a field goal in the fourth quarter.

Close enough to tie the game or take the lead unless, of course, there was a monumental blunder or two that reversed course. With the exception of the season opener against haplessly outmanned Long Island University from the depths of D1AA and a rather shockingly complete performance of then 7^th-ranked Texas, the Gators have seen their chances of winning slip through their fingers in the final 15 minutes. The Gators haven’t scored in the fourth quarter in four consecutive games. The last time the Gators put points on the scoreboard in the fourth quarter was a 4-yard touchdown pass from DJ Lagway to Tre Wilson with 12:29 left in the game against South Florida. That was game two.

It is this incredible inconsistency that has Napier sitting on the hottest seat in college football heading into the Mississippi State game. The Gators are favored to win by 9.5 points, but even if they win the game, Napier is an underdog to still be coaching in two weeks against Georgia. Georgia is very beatable this year. Will the powers that be who are deciding Napier’s future chance the possibility of a 2-game winning streak with Kentucky looming next? If Napier were to rally the troops enough to beat Mississippi State, Georgia and Kentucky in order, the Gators would be within a game of bowl eligibility with three games remaining.

So even a win Saturday may not save Napier’s job. How much of a distraction will that be for a team that is firmly behind the coach but somehow hasn’t translated that loyalty into wins on the field?

The thought here is that the inspiration of playing at home and the opportunity to send Napier out with a win will make the difference against Mississippi State. From a talent perspective, the Gators have the superior team but they have had equal or superior talent in all six previous games. Talent has been no predictor of success. However, in the case of Saturday against Mississippi State, Florida’s superior talent should be motivated enough to bring home a win.

The pick: FLORIDA not only wins but covers the spread.

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 4 Texas A&M (6-0, 3-0 SEC) at Arkansas (2-4, 0-2 SEC): The Aggies begin a 3-game road swing as 7.5-point favorites over Arkansas. This has the makings of a trap game for the Aggies. Arkansas plays rotten defense, but Bobby Petrino has a lot of playmakers and a quarterback in Taylen Green who leads the country in total offense. The Razorbacks are averaging 511.5 yards and 36.3 points per game. They are not the offensively challenged Florida Gators who the Aggies beat last week. The Aggies are No. 19 in the country in total defense but the only team they have played that wasn’t offensively challenged is Notre Dame, which lit them up for 40 points and 429 yards. What will keep the Aggies unbeaten is a Marcel Reed-led offense that Arkansas hasn’t a hope of stopping. The pick: Texas A&M

No. 5 Ole Miss (6-0, 3-0 SEC) at No. 9 Georgia (5-1, 3-1 SEC): Ole Miss beat Georgia by 18 last year in Oxford then blew a chance to make the College Football Playoff the next week in Gainesville. In that game the Rebels totally shut down the Georgia run game, forced three turnovers and sacked Carson Beck five times. The Ole Miss defense isn’t as stout as it was last year, but neither is the Georgia defense. Ole Miss should be able to move the ball and score on Georgia. The question is can the Rebels slow Georgia down just enough? This is the biggest road game for Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss, who has never played in front of a crowd this big or this loud. Can the Georgia crowd affect him enough to give the Bulldogs the edge? Georgia is a 7.5-point favorite but this has the feel of a white knuckles finish. The pick: Ole Miss

No. 11 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) at No. 6 Alabama (5-1, 3-0 SEC): Alabama is a very hot team but if there are two concerns: (1) Running back Jam Miller is listed as questionable. If he can’t go or is significantly slowed down, it’s going to be difficult for the Crimson Tide. (2) Alabama has only nine sacks in six games. If the Tide can’t get pressure on Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar the Vols are going to score a bunch of points. Can Bama win in a shootout? Without Miller that’s what it may come down to. Tennessee’s pass defense is porous so a big game from Ty Simpson throwing the ball could seriously elevate his Heisman Trophy chances. For the Vols to win, they’ll have to get pressure on Simpson and they’ll have to run the ball. Desean Bishop who ran wild last week on Arkansas last week was questionable early in the week but is now expected to play. The Vols probably have a better offense, but Alabama tends to come up with huge defensive plays when most needed. On the road, the Vols would probably be favored by 10 but the game is in Tuscaloosa where Bama is a 7.5-point favorite. The pick: Alabama

No. 10 LSU (5-1, 2-1 SEC) at No. 17 Vanderbilt (5-1, 1-1 SEC): When is the last time a Vanderbilt team was favored to beat LSU? Decades probably, but here we are game seven and not only is Vandy a 2.5-point favorite in Nashville, but a win away from bowl eligible seven games into the season. Who would have ever thought that? We saw what a mobile quarterback can do to LSU a couple of weeks ago when Trinidad Chambliss of Ole Miss was all but unstoppable. Vandy’s Diego Pavia is the same kind of quarterback and if LSU struggles to contain him, it could be a very long day for the Tigers. LSU has no running game to speak of and that should favor the Vandy defense, which can focus on getting in the face of Garrett Nussmeier. Vandy has a fierce pass rush that got to Ty Simpson of Alabama four times. For LSU, the way to win is quite simple. Make Pavia a pocket passer and don’t let him get loose on the edges, protect Nussmeier and wear down the Vandy secondary with deep shots down the field. If this game were in Tiger Stadium, LSU would probably be favored by two touchdowns, but it’s in Nashville and this isn’t your grandfather’s Vandy. The pick: Vanderbilt

No. 14 Oklahoma (5-1, 1-1 SEC) at South Carolina (3-3, 1-3 SEC): John Mateer played his way out of Heisman contention last week when the Sooners went belly up to Texas. Since the Heisman is a thing of the past, he’s got bigger fish to fry in the form of keeping the Sooners in College Football Playoff contention against a schedule that is daunting. The Sooners are 5.5-point favorites against a team that is good enough to beat anyone yet at the same time capable of getting its doors blown off. In Oklahoma’s favor is the nation’s No. 1 defense that will be going against one of the most erratic offenses. Basically, the Sooners won’t have to score a lot of points if the defense does its part and keeps South Carolina hovering around 275-300 yards of offense. Of course, if Mateer does what he did last week in the loss to Texas when he completed three passes to the Longhorns, then the Sooners are in big trouble. The pick: Oklahoma

No. 16 Missouri (5-1, 1-1 SEC) at Auburn (3-3, 0-3 SEC): Hugh Freeze has to be thinking that Auburn can play with and beat anyone in the country if only he can get a fair shake from SEC zebras. Twice already, Auburn has taken one on the chin because of a blown call by the zebra crew. They struck again last week when Jackson Arnold’s touchdown near the end of the second quarter was ruled a fumble. Instead of a 17-0 lead, Auburn turned it over and was never the same again. Auburn has a good enough defense to keep Missouri close. The question for Auburn is the offense. Despite outstanding receivers Auburn has a rotten passing game because Arnold couldn’t hit a bull in the butt with a bass fiddle from pointblank range. Missouri is trying to bounce back from its first loss of the season, a loss to Alabama facilitated by a much too conservative offensive game plan by Eli Drinkwitz. Eli has to cut Beau Pribula loose if he intends for Mizzou to still have a shot at both Atlanta and the College Football Playoff. The pick: Auburn

No. 21 Texas (4-2, 1-1 SEC) at Kentucky (2-4, 0-3 SEC): Will the real Texas please stand up? The same Longhorns who played so poorly in losing to Florida bounced back with a dominant win over Oklahoma, one in which Arch Manning made the big plays without the same killer mistakes. If the Longhorns play with the same intensity that knocked Oklahoma from the undefeated ranks, then Kentucky will be a walk in the park. It may be Kentucky, but even Kentucky can win a game if (a) the game is in Lexington and (b) the opponent can’t get out of its own way. The Longhorns are 13.5-point favorites. There is a hefty talent disparity, but the game is in Lexington where Kentucky tends to bring opponents down to their level. This should be enough to make the Longhorns sweat but springing the upset? The pick: Texas