As The Line Grows For Florida-LSU: Beware!

Carlton The Doorman

(EDITOR'S NOTE: Good of Carlton to have his Doorman friend back after a weak of sick leave. He says it had nothing to do with his handicapping, or Gators' loss to Kentucky).

So what about that 11-point margin set by the bookies? Carlton the Doorman tells me that’s too big for any LSU team on its home turf.

Not in recent memory has it felt like there was a game Florida cannot lose, but that would be this Saturday in Baton Rouge. Not that the Gators are incapable of losing, it’s that losing would be a catastrophic sign of this program’s sudden downward turn to Hades. A victory, be it by a 60-yard field goal as time expires or even a horrible blown call by the official, would be a sigh of relief at this point.

The loss to Kentucky still burns. The loss to what is a good Wildcats team sure to get humiliated this weekend in Athens, turned what was a tolerable and even promising defeat to Alabama into just another big fat ‘L’ on the schedule. The goodwill earned in defeat to the then-No.1 team in the nation that has been exposed, vanished in a storm of false start penalties and missed opportunities in Lexington.

That all seemingly in the past, the Gators hold none of their goals in hand – it will take more than a minor miracle to reach Atlanta, which feels like a pretty silly proposition at this point anyway.

LSU is just not very good and looked far weaker than the Gators against that same Kentucky team that seemed like it was accepting a Make-A-Wish Foundation gift from the Gators two weeks ago. That said, wasn’t this LSU team close to horrible when it visited Gainesville last season to go up against Dan Mullen’s strongest contingent yet? And how did that turn out?

Florida opened as a 3.5-point favorite, showing the bookies are smarter than the bettors who have pushed the line already to 11 points in the Gators’ favor.

A Gators’ loss to LSU Saturday would mean UF is staring into the gaping maw of 4-4 following a trouncing to Georgia. Then, even a win over Florida State would no longer be guaranteed as the Seminoles are starting to at least look competitive.

For LSU to win Saturday, it means that Ed Orgeron must out-coach Mullen, a laughable prospect but one that we witnessed in 2020. For Florida to win, it means 11 players waiting until the ball is snapped to start moving; it means disciplined football, but these things are obvious.

A Florida loss will hurt, but not crush Mullen. An LSU loss might mean the end for Orgeron, just two years removed from a national championship. The Tigers would fall to 3-4 and be decided underdogs in the next three games: at Ole Miss, at Alabama and home against Arkansas. The season finale at Texas A&M looks just as ominous, meaning 4-8 and goodbye Ed, we hardly knew ye.

This is all IF Florida wins, and that’s a big "IF,"as Florida must prove it’s ready to play like a champion. This is a desperate time for Florida football and the Gators need to play with the hunger this type of game demands. LSU will certainly be hungry … maybe even confident.

So what about that 11-point margin set by the bookies? Carlton the Doorman tells me that’s too big for any LSU team on its home turf, especially to one coming off a loss to Kentucky and what was a Vanderbilt game that likely shouldn’t even count this season.

As a home dog, the Doorman’s system says to take LSU, but in such games the system is only 7-7 against the spread this year. For super home dogs (in which the line and the system spread are 10 or more points apart), none come up this week, but here is what the Doorman’s system says:

Liberty minus 33 over Louisiana Monroe, Iowa minus 12 over Purdue, Boston College plus 3 over N.C. State, Old Dominion plus 12.5 over Western Kentucky, UNLV plus 7 over Utah State and UTEP plus 7 over Louisiana Tech.

This week’s Carlton the Doorman spreads:

SEC Games- Arkansas by 2 over Auburn; Florida by 2 over LSU; Texas A&M by 26.5 over Missouri; Georgia by 37 over Kentucky; South Carolina by 24 over Vanderbilt; Alabama by 19.5 over Mississippi State; Ole Miss by 11 over Tennessee

Other games of note- Clemson by 8 over Syracuse, Miami even with North Carolina; Texas by 6.5 over Oklahoma State; Oklahoma by 20.5 over TCU; Cincinnati by 33.5 over Central Florida; Tulsa by 6.5 over South Florida.

This week’s Top 10:

1. Georgia (132.5)

2. Ohio State (119)

3. Iowa (114.5)

4. Alabama (111.5)

5. Cincinnati (107.5)

6. Penn State (102)

7. Oklahoma (101.5)

8. Liberty (92)

9. Ole Miss (91.5)

10. Michigan (87)