The Soothsayer: Georgia in a heart stopper

Archive photo: A Florida quarterback prepares to throw as a Georgia defender closes during the Nov. 2, 2024 rivalry game in Jacksonville. Photo by Chris Spears, GatorBait Media.

Third-ranked Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC) has every reason to feel confident Saturday when it takes on 17th-ranked Florida (5-2, 3-2 SEC). The Bulldogs are healthy and they’ve had a week to get the bad taste of losing to Auburn out of their mouths, plus instead of Jacksonville they get the Gators in their own back yard. Georgia is a 12.5-point favorite and you wonder why the margin isn’t more considering Florida has not one, but two gimpy quarterbacks.

Everything points to Georgia winning this one big.

Of course, everything pointed to Texas blowing out the Gators two weeks ago, too, and we know how that turned out. Texas, also, was a 12.5-point favorite and playing at home in Austin. The Gators sprung the upset by changing defensive strategies, blitzing on nearly every snap to force Arch Manning to throw before his receivers could get any real separation. Five Florida sacks later, the Gators left Austin with a shocking 27-24 win over the Longhorns, who were ranked No. 1 in the nation just two weeks earlier.

Florida ran a very conservative offensive scheme against Texas, in part because Tramell Jones Jr. was making his first collegiate start at quarterback but also because ball control kept the UF defense off the field. In a second half in which the Gators outscored Texas 17-7, Florida possessed the football for nearly 22 minutes. Starting with a drive that consumed eight minutes after the second half kickoff, the Gators kept moving the chains with a scheme that chipped away at the Texas defense. By the fourth quarter Florida’s 3-yard gains were going for four and five, then on the game-winning drive Jadan Baugh busted loose with a 13-yarder that helped set up his 11-yard touchdown that sealed the deal.

Can the Gators do it again? We don’t know who will be the QB: Jones who beat Texas on the road in his first start ever or Aaron Philo, the starter in games one through six? There is a prevailing thought that Jon Sumrall already knows who will start but he’s not saying because he wants Georgia defensive coaches to burn the midnight oil scheming for each one. If there is an advantage it would seem to be Jones. After all, he brought the Gators back from a 14-point deficit to win and on the road no less. Philo had two golden opportunities to rally the troops in the losses to Missouri and South Carolina but failed to inspire.

To beat Georgia, Florida has to put enough pressure on Gunner Stockton that he melts down as he did against Auburn with two second half interceptions and the fumble that set up Auburn’s game-winning field goal. And, the offensive line has to grind away, helping to turn the three-yard gains in the first half into four, five and six as they wear down the Georgia defensive front seven. If Jadan Baugh can run for 90 or more yards, you have to like Florida’s chances to have a shot at a win in the fourth quarter.

Two wins over top ten teams – then No. 4 Ole Miss and then No. 7 Texas – should have prepped the Gators for a game against a Georgia team that many are still saying has the best chance of any team in the country to win a national championship. So much depends on the first quarter. If the Auburn game is the fluke that Georgia folks would like us to believe, then the Bulldogs will apply the early pressure to force mistakes that lead to first quarter points. Florida has to be prepared for an onslaught designed to break the Gators’ spirit. The Gators must emerge from the first quarter either tied or leading. They can’t let Georgia have an early confidence advantage, especially since the game is played in Atlanta. Tickets are supposedly split down the middle but Georgia fans have dominated the after market purchases. Make no mistake about it, this will be a Georgia home game.

This is a very tough call for the Soothsayer, who has spent the week being reminded that Florida damn near beat the Bulldogs last year. Georgia was a better team this time a year ago and Florida was being coached by Billy Napier. Enough said about that! The Gators are improved, however, and that has to be noted. Improved enough to win?

The Sayer Says Sooth!: It is tempting to call this one for Florida. The Gators have incentive and they’re battle tested both home and on the road but they already have two SEC losses. A third and their chances of playing in the conference championship game are history. With only that Auburn loss, Georgia does some wiggle room. One more loss won’t end their playoff or SEC hopes. As much as it pains the Soothsayer, the call is for Georgia to win, but only after the Gators make their fans hold their hearts while thinking the widow maker is on its way.

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER

Mississippi State (4-3, 2-3 SEC) at No. 11 Texas (5-2, 2-2 SEC): The Longhorns got back in the hunt for both the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff last week when they took down Ole Miss, this despite Arch Manning throwing two more picks. The Longhorns have a world class defense and they have to cover for their quarterback, who has turned brain farting into an art form. There is no denying Arch Manning’s physical gifts. There is also no denying that he has the attention span of an earthworm, which is to say Arch has this nasty habit of losing focus which in turn makes Will Muschamp’s defensive troops defend a short field. Kamario Taylor, the marvelously gifted sophomore quarterback, could have made this game interesting but he’s out for the rest of the season, which is a kind way of saying Mississippi State is toast. The Sayer Says Sooth!: Texas is favored by 20.5 points. The only way the Longhorns win by 20 or fewer points is if Arch has one of those Arch kind of games. The good news for the Longhorns is he can have one of those Arch kind of games and the Longhorns will win quite handily.

Auburn (4-3, 2-3 SEC) at No. 12 Ole Miss (5-2, 3-2 SEC): If Auburn plays like it did two weeks ago when the Tigers did the unthinkable by beating then No. 1 Georgia in Athens, then this game will be very, very interesting. If and when Byrum Brown gets on a roll, which is to say doing a reasonable Lamar Jackson impersonation, the Tigers are very capable. The Ole Miss defense is vulnerable, which it showed last week when Texas hung 34 on the Rebels. Ole Miss doesn’t pressure quarterbacks very well, but the Rebels haven’t had the privilege of bull rushing the Auburn O-line. Auburn has given up 30 sacks, last in the SEC and nearly last in the entire country. Any Heisman hopes Trinidad Chambliss has are flickering right now so he can’t afford anything less than spectacular. He’ll have to do it without Kewan Lacy, whose ailing shoulder sidelines him. The Sayer Says Sooth!: The Rebels are 11.5-point favorites at home in Oxford. The spread should probably be larger but there is no telling which Auburn team shows up. The one that beat Georgia could win this game. Ole Miss can still make it to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff with a win. The Rebels will keep the hope fire burning.

No. 23 Missouri (5-2, 2-2 SEC) at Arkansas (3-4, 1-3 SEC): The way Ole Miss battered Mizzou two weeks ago has made the Tigers an afterthought when it comes to CFP hopes, but they’re still in the hunt. And, this week they get Ahmad Hardy back for the first time this season. If he’s fully recovered from the gunshot wound he makes Missouri a very dangerous team. Arkansas is going nowhere. To the Hogs’ credit, they got a win over Vanderbilt so they won’t have an oh-fer season in SEC play, but they won’t be favored any game the rest of the season starting Saturday. They’re 10 point home dogs, a number that gives off the feeling that the oddmakers in Las Vegas have little respect for Missouri. The Sayer Says Sooth!: Missouri almost certainly wins this game even with a below average effort but considering the next three games (Texas, at Georgia, Kentucky) the Tigers need to create some semblance of momentum. The Tigers are going to win this one. Anything less than a two-touchdown win is a bad omen for Mizzou moving forward.

South Carolina (4-3, 2-3 SEC) at Oklahoma (4-3, 2-2 SEC): The Save Shane Tour takes to the road to Norman where Oklahoma’s ferocious defense awaits LaNorris Sellers, who is playing semi-brilliant once again. If Sellers goes into a quarterbacking coma, which means escaping the pass rush like Houdini and throwing pinpoint passes, the Fighting Chickens have a reasonable shot to win this one. As it stands right now, South Carolina needs three wins or Shane Beamer can kiss this job good bye. Oklahoma can salvage its season by ripping off some wins but doing that will require John Mateer to remember he gives the Sooners their best chance to win when he throws the football to teammates instead of the opposing defense. For Oklahoma to have any chance the defense is going to have to keep Sellers in the pocket. If he gets loose, they are in trouble. The Sayer Says Sooth!: Oklahoma is a 3-point favorite which tells us the oddsmakers in Las Vegas don’t trust the Sooners as far as they can throw them. Probably the big question here is which team will be the most motivated? South Carolina which needs to win at least three more games to save the coach’s job or Oklahoma which still has faint hopes of the playoff? The thought is Okie in a chest clutcher.