One That Got Away. And Will Most Likely Prove To Be Costly For Dan Mullen

“You’re on the road. You’ve got your back to the wall. You’re making some errors right there. You get out. You’re looking at the clock. You’ve got about 30 seconds, I think it was. You’ve got the ball at about the 30-yard line (34), on the road. Go and settle down and not create a potential issue right there.” --Dan Mullen

I’ve never really understood analytics. On one hand, they allegedly provide insight to trends and tendencies. But theorists also portend that past results are not necessarily a predictor of future events. There are computer models that we can study, which is why during hurricane season we can’t take our eyes off the Cone of Uncertainty. Me, I tend to stick with the current trends. Which is maybe why I didn’t see this one coming Saturday night in Lexington. And the football news out of Gainesville isn’t trending up this week.

I was wrong on all three talk shows that I did last week – four, if I count my own – because I felt the Gators were a better team, already so much in the head of Mark Stoops that they could virtually roll their helmets out on Kroger Field and beat spread against the Wildcats. I said if Anthony Richardson plays, Florida wins. He did. They didn’t. So who am I to question anybody’s judgment?

On the other hand, there was no way I could have forseen Florida committing 15 penalties – over half of them for illegal motion that were drive-killers and negating at least one possible game-tying touchdown. So what happened?

This one hurt especially -- a second loss which eliminated any chances for the CFB playoffs and probably the SEC East, plummeting the Gators from No. 10 to No. 20 in the AP poll. It especially stung because of mistakes both by players and coaches which smack of regression and suggests a mediocre season is ahead.

Unless they could somehow win out and beat Georgia – which almost feels laughable to suggest after losing to Kentucky -- all that’s likely left now to play for besides pride is a second-tier bowl game which brings in the jeopardy of player opt-outs. Sorry to be the bearer of such bad news.

I’m not going over to the dark side with those yahoos who call for a coach’s head every time their team loses a game unexpectedly. But admittedly Dan Mullen didn’t have his A game, nor did his coaches or offensive snap counters. There were some suggestions — one by quarterback Emory Jones -- that perhaps the ball wasn’t snapped on time sometimes. Jones took his part of the blame, confessing “I’ve got to be louder” in barking or handclapping signals.

Perhaps most puzzling of all was Mullen’s decision to run out the clock just before the half -- and then not score in the second half – which gives cause for concern that seemed very un-Mullen-like.

In the 7 minute, 24-second post-game press conference, Mullen’s answers were not terribly insightful or enlightening. He said no, he did not think he and his staff were outcoached. He said the noise at Kroger Field wasn’t the reason for the penalties. “A lack of mental toughness,” he characterized it. He said that the field goal block was poor execution by the special teams and that sloppy tackling was the reason for Kentucky’s block/return. But that the offensive lineman had done some tackling drills in pre-season training camp.

“You can’t make those kind of mistakes and win games in the SEC,” Mullen said.

Mullen’s reasoning for running out the clock when Florida still had three time outs with 1:56 to play in the second period, up 10-7, after a first down on Trent Whittemore’s catch, was confounding to ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky and wasn’t clear to me. “I’m shocked,” Orlovsky said twice.

Maybe I am just not as smart, but I couldn’t quite decipher Mullen’s answer and reasoning in the post-game presser.

“You’re on the road. You’ve got your back to the wall. You’re making some errors right there. You get out. You’re looking at the clock. You’ve got about 30 seconds, I think it was. You’ve got the ball at about the 30-yard line (34), on the road. Go and settle down and not create a potential issue right there.”

"Issues"? Or maybe missed opportunities? And oh yes, Kentucky was getting the ball first in the second half.

That leaves room for all kind of speculation, but we can only guess what prompted his decision to sit on the ball. Did he lack confidence in his quarterback? Was Mark Stoops’ defense too intimidating? Why not at least one long pass, or bring Richardson back in for that “Kodak” double pass like Whittemore threw for a touchdown last week?

Or maybe you just have to step back and give Stoops credit for a well-coached game and the Kentucky fans for stirring up strong support at Kroger Field. Which by the way, Mullen did.

Looking back, this was the one that got away and the price to be paid will likely be costly. It will be an angry fan base that shows up Saturday for Vanderbilt, for those who, indeed, do show up.