The Soothsayer: Gators head to Missouri, where history hasn’t been kind
A whole bunch of Ole Miss fans are of the opinion that the Florida Gators really aren’t as good as their 52-28 win over the Rebels last week. They truly believe that if Kewan Lacy had been healthy and the game hadn’t been the week after an emotional win over LSU in Oxford that it would have been a far different story in Gainesville. They don’t take into account that the Gators rarely lose in The Swamp and the last time Ole Miss visited the Rebels were tagged with a loss that kept them out of the College Football Playoff.
The Gators (4-0, 2-0 SEC) parlayed that win over Ole Miss into the No. 8 national ranking. Just like Ole Miss last week, the Gators have to deal with a road trip after a very emotional win and it’s to a place where history has not been kind to UF. Prior to 2012 when Missouri (3-1, 0-1 SEC) bolted the Big 12 to join the Southeastern Conference, the two schools had met only once, the 1965 Sugar Bowl, won by Missouri 20-18 when the Gators missed three straight two-point conversions while rallying in the fourth quarter. Since 2012, the two teams have met 12 times, with Florida owning a 4-2 record against the Tigers in Gainesville, 2-4 in Columbia.
Since Eli Drinkwitz took over as the Mizzou coach in 2020, the Gators have won both encounters in Gainesville, lost both games in Columbia. Drinkwitz is 49-30 overall at Mizzou, but a rather sparkling 35-9 at home. Since 2023, Drinkwitz and the Tigers are 21-3 in Columbia.
So the task for the Gators Saturday (3:30 p.m., ABC) is complicated. Not only do the Gators have to find an emotional peak to avoid a letdown but they’re also playing in a place where they’ve had minimal success. This might be an even bigger task for Jon Sumrall than preparing the Gators for their first road trip to Auburn a couple of weeks ago. With one SEC loss already (last week at Mississippi State), the No. 25 Tigers can’t afford an 0-2 start to the SEC portion of the schedule so the Gators can expect a backs against the wall mentality.
Sumrall is well aware of Florida’s history in Columbia. He is also fully aware of the emotions that went into bushwhacking Ole Miss last week. His solution to what’s ahead is “be where your feet are, just be in the moment.”
To bring the Gators back to the moment, Monday Sumrall showed the film of the Ole Miss game. The good news was 302 rushing yards, seven touchdown drives and 52 points but the Gators allowed Ole Miss to score 28 points and throw for 298 yards.
“We showed our not-our-standard tape this morning,” Sumrall said, adding “So, yeah, just, I think we have to keep a humble, hungry, gritty blue-collar mindset. You know, tough teams win, selfless teams win. Like, teams that have an edge about them and hunger about them, they win. Complacent, soft, entitled, lazy, selfish teams, they lose.”
Will the Gators prove tough enough? Will they play with an edge and have a ravishing hunger to win in a place that hasn’t been kind? Tough questions for The Soothsayer.
The Sayer Says Sooth!: Missouri will load the box to stop Jadan Baugh and Florida’s running game while at the same time hope they have the numbers to force Aaron Philo to rush his passes. The strategy didn’t work against Mississippi State last week in Starkville where Kamario Taylor threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns. Philo will loosen up the defense early, then the O-line will get in a groove. The Sayer likes the Gators by more than the 5.5 points they are favored.
THE SEC SOOTHSAYER
Vanderbilt (3-1, 0-1 SEC) at No. 2 Georgia (4-0, 2-0 SEC), 12:45 p.m., SEC Network: Everybody is talking up Georgia, but to be fair, the Bulldogs haven’t exactly played a decent team. They get Vandy this week and then travel to Alabama next. That’s when they find out if they’re as good as the hype. Vandy will be happy just to keep this one within 20 points.
The Sayer Says Sooth!: How is it that Georgia only plays three games outside the state the rest of the way? They’ll blow the doors off Vandy.
No. 7 Alabama (4-0, 2-0 SEC) at No. 16 Mississippi State (4-0, 2-0 SEC), noon, ABC: The last time Mississippi State beat Alabama was 2007, Nick Saban’s first year in Tuscaloosa. Nick’s gone and Kalen DeBoer has yet to convince the Tide faithful that he’s a worthy successor. Bama’s defense was supposed to be very good, but 54 points allowed in the last two games have the faithful sweating because they haven’t seen anything like Kamario Taylor. If Where’s Kamario lights up Bama and springs the upset there will be a field storming in Starkville and Kamario will rank right up there with Trinidad Chambliss as the Heisman fave.
The Sayer Says Sooth!: It’s very tempting to pick an upset here. Against The Soothsayer’s better judgment, call it white knuckles and a ton of points but Bama prevails.
McNeese (2-3) at No. 11 LSU (3-1, 1-1 SEC), 7:45 p.m., SEC Network: McNeese is here for the paycheck to keep its spermwhale harpooning team funded. Lane Kiffin will have to resist the urge to hang 80 on McNeese.
The Sayer Says Sooth!: The only upset possibility is the starters playing more than the first quarter.
Auburn (3-1, 1-1 SEC) at No. 17 Tennessee (3-1, 0-1 SEC), 3:30 p.m., ESPN: Two of the worst teams in all of college football when it comes to protecting the quarterback go head-to-head at Neyland. If this game were at Auburn, it would be tempting to pick the Tigers. If Josh Heupel is smart, he will pass sparingly and dice up the Auburn defense with a barrage of runs.
The Sayer Says Sooth!: The Vols are favored by seven. Why so few? Could it be an upset? Nah. Okay, maybe. But The Soothsayer is sticking with the Vols.
No. 24 Kentucky (3-1, 1-1 SEC) at South Carolina (2-2, 0-2 SEC), 4:15 p.m., SEC Network: Nobody needs a win more than Shane Beamer. Nobody on the planet is more cocky than UK coach Will Stein, particularly because he’s already got an SEC road win in College Station under his belt. As if the folks in the Columbia chicken coop can be any worse than a horde of boozed up Aggies.
The Sayer Says Sooth!: South Carolina is favored by three which is a shocker. The Wildcats turn this into gourmet KFC. The only thing missing will be pimiento sandwiches.
Arkansas (2-2, 0-1 SEC) at Texas A&M (2-2, 0-2), 7 p.m., ESPN2: The Aggies are trying to convince themselves they could still make the College Football Playoff, that all they have to do is run the table for eight straight wins. They won’t get eight straight but right now a one-game winning streak would stop the bleeding.
The Sayer Says Sooth!: Marcel Reed needs to regain his confidence. The Aggies will win this one but can they make enough plays for Marcel to feel like he is capable again?
COUNTDOWN TO FIRING DAY
EXTINCT SPECIES LIST
Nobody yet, but keep a close eye on what happens in Columbia, South Carolina this week.
ON LIFE SUPPORT
Dave Doeren, North Carolina State: The loss to Vanderbilt nearly got Doeren pink slipped. The Wolfpack is 2-2 right now and the schedule has a 6-6 look to it. That’s the problem. After 11 years and no championships, the faithful are tired of break even seasons that result in bowl trips to such exotic locations as Birmingham.
Mike Norvell, Florida State: The Seminoles are 2-2. The next four games are Virginia, at Louisville, at Miami and Clemson. Plus there is the season-ender with the Gators. The fans want him gone. The admin wants him gone. There aren’t enough deep pockets to pay the buyout. That is, unless Jimbo Fisher agrees to a 5-year deal in which he will be paid a measly million or two while living off that Aggieland buyout money. If that deal can be arranged, Norvell could be gone in a hurry.
Mike Locksley, Maryland: The Terps are 2-2. The next two games are roadies, at Nebraska and at Ohio State, both figure to be blowout losses. After that, there are six games that the Terps should at least be competitive. If they go 6-6 Locksley stays. Anything less and he goes.
Shane Beamer, South Carolina: The 2-2 Gamecocks have given up 90 points in their last two games, both losses. A break even season might be salvageable if they can find a way to beat Kentucky in Columbia this weekend. Lose this one and then get conked by the Gators in Gainesville the following week and Beamer Ball might be a thing of the past at midyear.
Greg Schiano, Rutgers: The only win is over D1AA Howard. Indiana is Saturday which should make the Scarlet Knights 1-4. Schiano is actually a good football coach, but Rutgers is a graveyard and he’s maxed out. He’s getting $6.5 million and fans think that’s too much for a team that will struggle to win four games.
Dell McGee, Georgia State: The Panthers are a surprising 3-1 but have yet to play a Sun Belt game. Are there three wins on the schedule? If not, McGee should be sending out flyers for assistant coaching jobs somewhere.
Bill O’Brien, Boston College: The Eagles are the most seriously under-funded team in the ACC and it’s going to show in the weeks ahead. They’re 2-2 right now, but they have six very losable games on the schedule including roadies to Notre Dame and Miami.
Bill Belichick, North Carolina: This one is hard to figure. The Tar Heels are substantially better than they were last year (2-1), but scandals that cost Belichick his GM and his defensive coordinator son haven’t resonated well. Notre Dame is in Chapel Hill this weekend. Can Belichick figure out a way to make this a close call? He really needs to get bowl eligible.
ENDANGERED SPECIES LIST
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin: He bought some time with that comeback win over Penn State. The Badgers are now 3-1, 1-0 in the Big Ten. They are favored to beat Michigan State Saturday but then (at) UCLA, Southern Cal and (at) Iowa. Win at least one of the three and the Badgers could get to seven wins, the absolute minimum for survival.
Deion Sanders, Colorado: The Fighting Prime Times have lost their last two and the next two weeks they get Texas Tech and Utah, not exactly conducive to being above .500 at midyear. Watch the grandstands. If there are fewer and fewer fannies in the seats, then the Prime Time luster has worn off and Deion will find it hard to be gainfully employed in Boulder next year.
Joe Moorhead, Akron: Yes, he’s always on the hot seat. He doesn’t make a lot of money but Akron doesn’t have much to spend either. That’s the only thing keeping him on the job.
Dave Aranda, Baylor: The Bears beat Colorado last week to improve to 3-1. DJ Lagway threw only one interception which seriously helped the cause. Break even the rest of the way and he’s got seven wins which should keep him gainfully employed one more year.
Lincoln Riley, Southern California: Bad juju going on in LA. They’re winning at UCLA and the Trojans are getting torched for a vicious late hit on Oregon QB Dante Moore last week. Like all Lincoln Riley teams, the Trojans can score points. And, like all Lincoln Riley teams they can’t stop anybody. The fans wish he would go away.
Butch Jones, Arkansas State: The Red Wolves are 2-2 but now the Sun Belt portion of the schedule kicks in. Butch needs seven wins to appease the masses.
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