Thoughts of the Day: October 13, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:

SATURDAY IS A CHANCE FOR REDEMPTION FOR FLORIDA’S DEFENSE The shoe. Everybody remembers the shoe that Marco Wilson threw late in the fourth quarter of Florida’s 37-34 loss to LSU. Who could forget it?

On a third-and-10 at the LSU 25 with just over two minutes remaining in the game, Marco Wilson and Tre’Vez Johnson stuffed tight end Kole Taylor for a 4-yard gain, finishing off a critical defensive stand in a game in which the Gators had problems getting the Tigers off the field. Taylor’s shoe came off as he went to the turf, Wilson picked it up and threw it in celebration, resulting in a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that gave LSU new life. Six plays later Cade York drilled a game-winning 57-yard field goal.

Shoe-gate, as some Gator fans call it, was the poster play of a year to forget for Florida’s defense, which gave up 428 yards and 30.8 points per game. If not for one of the most prolific offenses in UF history, 2020 could have been the ultimate season to forget.

So here we are a year later. The stars of last year’s offense – Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney – are all in the NFL. Florida’s offense is very good but lacks the quick strike capabilities of a year ago. The defense is much improved and beginning to look one that could very well finish among the nation’s top 15-20 units. At the midway point of the season, Todd Grantham’s defense is allowing 319.2 yards and 16.5 points per game. The Gators are fifth in the SEC and tied for 30th nationally in total defense. Florida ranks 15thagainst scoring.

The Gators are allowing only 110.83 yards per game on the ground, a 60-yard improvement over last season and 208.3 yards per game passing, a 49-yard improvement. Last year the Gators gave up 16 rushing TDs and 28 passing TDs. This year, they’ve allowed seven passing TDs and only five on the ground. The Gators are second in the SEC and tied for ninth nationally in sacks with 20. A year ago UF had 35 in 12 games.

The numbers tell of improvement, but by no means is Grantham’s unit a finished product. They’re still way too young in a lot of positions, they’ve had too many injuries and it’s only now that we’re starting to see transfers like Antonio Shelton, Daquan Newkirk, Tyrone Truesdell and Jadarrius Perkins really come into their own. Where they are now compared to where they were four games ago is night and day different.

After shellshock first quarters against Alabama and Tennessee, the Gators played extremely well in the final three. Alabama managed only 10 points in quarters two through four while Tennessee was shut out. Against Kentucky, the Gators gave up only 224 yards. Only one of Kentucky’s three TDs can be pinned on the defense. The other two were from a blocked field goal and a short field after an interception. The Gators got their first shutout of a Division I team since 2016 last week against Vanderbilt, a game in which UF dominated the second half (87 yards total) and gave up 287 total.

Saturday in Baton Rouge, it’s a chance for UF to in some way atone for the sins of last season but only if they’ll play a complete game on defense. LSU quarterback Max Johnson has a big arm but he’s had problems staying upright the last two games and he will be without his favorite target Kayshon Boutte (38-509, 9 TDs), gone for the season with a leg injury. Florida needs to put the heat on Johnson early and often. It’s the kind of game that Zachary Carter and Brenton Cox Jr. can dominate off the edge and there is no one on the LSU offensive line capable of handling Gervon Dexter.

With Kaiir Elam returning to the starting lineup and safeties Trey Dean and Rashad Torrence coming off their best games at safety, this sets up as a game Florida can dominate. It’s a game Florida needs to dominate in the worst way. The Gators will have an open date next week followed by Georgia in Jacksonville so the last thing they need is an inconsistent or poor performance.

Dominating LSU defensively won’t exactly erase the memory of Shoe-gate, but it will be further proof that last year was an aberration.

OVER, UNDER, AROUND AND THROUGH THE SEC

Alabama (5-1, 2-1 SEC): If you’ve written off Alabama’s chances to win a national championship because the Crimson Tide lost to Texas A&M, then consider this. Since 2008, Alabama has never lost two consecutive regular season games. Alabama has won six national championships under Nick Saban but only two (2008, 2020) were unbeaten seasons. What that should tell us is that it’s business as usual in Tuscaloosa and the Crimson Tide are still very much in the playoff and national championship hunt. Vegas says: Alabama is a 17-point road favorite at Mississippi State.

Arkansas (4-2, 1-2 SEC): Saturday’s game with Auburn probably rehashes some rotten memories, not only for Arkansas, which lost the game 30-28, but to the SEC officiating crew and replay booth which awarded a fumble of an unintentional backward spike by Bo Nix to Auburn even though the Hogs Joe Foucha recovered the loose ball. Auburn kicked the game winning field goal with seven seconds left. Vegas says: Arkansas is a 3.5-point favorite over Auburn.

Auburn (4-2, 1-1 SEC): In Auburn’s last three games, the Tigers have run the ball 92 times while throwing it 134. HBC Bryan Harsin says, “Well, ideally you want to run the football. One way to do that is to stop losing early. That’s a way to do that. So, don’t get behind and stay in a position were you can’t run the football.” Vegas says: Auburn is a 3.5-point road dog at Arkansas.

Georgia (6-0, 4-0 SEC): Greg McElroy of ESPN on who Georgia should start at QB vs. Kentucky: “I don’t care what anyone says, the guy [Stetson Bennett] has got the hot hand. So I know that JT Daniels maybe, even with his legs … how many different plays does Stetson Bennett make with his legs this past weekend. I don’t know. You know me, everyone who listens to this show, I am not one that thinks JT Daniels is the second coming of Peyton Manning. I think he’s a good solid player. I don’t think he’s a future top 5 pick. I’ve never thought that. I think he’s got a limited ceiling, and I think he’s very, very accurate on the underneath throws. However, I don’t think he’s this total game changer, take over the game.” Vegas says: Georgia is a 23.5-point home favorite over Kentucky.

Kentucky (6-0, 4-0 SEC): Linebacker Deandre Square says Kentucky will be ready to play Georgia. Square says, “After the Florida win we were already locked in on LSU whereas in past years we would get hung up on big wins, but this year, it’s different. We know we can win big games. We just have to prepare.” Vegas says: Kentucky is a 23.5-point road dog at Georgia.

LSU (3-3, 1-2 SEC): Coach Oeaux on the Florida Gators: “They’re third in the country in rushing offense. Known Dan for a long time. He’s one of the best play callers I’ve been around. They’ve got some talent, they’ve got a good offensive line, good stable of running backs. Lot of speed at wide receiver. On defense, we all know about their defense. They’re an attacking defense – 16 points per game, led by Zachary Carter with six sacks. Vegas says: LSU is a 10.5-point home dog to Florida.

Mississippi State (3-3, 1-1 SEC): Mike Leach on what separates Nick Saban as a coach: “What I have always thought he does best is that I think he evaluates really well. He’s in a position where he can get pretty much anybody, but I think he evaluates as far as which ones to take very well. The other thing is he is not afraid to tell somebody no or push somebody hard. Occasionally, somebody will get some 5-star Parade All-American and then he’s afraid to coach them. Coach Saban is not afraid to coach that guy and push that guy. I have always thought the strongest thing he does is evaluate and push guys.” Vegas says: Mississippi State is a 17-point home dog to Alabama.

Missouri (3-3, 0-2 SEC): HBC Eli Drinkwitz says he’s just trying to keep the Tigers focused on their emotional stability. Drinkwitz says, “I try not to get into the ebbs and flows or comparisons. The process is we’ve got to try to be 1-0 this week. You can’t get up and down because of every different thing that happens. Obviously our season has had some ups and downs but we’ve got to try to maintain even keel. You can’t get too high or too low, can’t get into those emotional swings.” Vegas says: Missouri is an 8.5-point home dogs to Texas A&M.

Ole Miss (4-1, 1-1 SEC): The 3-2-6 defensive scheme the Rebels have used the last two games against Alabama and Arkansas hasn’t worked very well. Lane Kiffin says, “It works when you do it right. We have to get off the field on third down. We have to play more players and we have to tackle.” Vegas says: Ole Miss is a 3-point road favorite at Tennessee.

South Carolina (3-3, 0-3 SEC): Vegas says: South Carolina is an 18.5-point home favorite over Vanderbilt.

Tennessee (4-2, 2-1 SEC): The likely candidates to step in for linebacker Juwan Mitchell, who will miss the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery are former walk-on Kwauze Garland, Michigan transfer William Mohan or freshman Aaron Willis. Garland and Mohan have played extensively on special teams.Vegas says: Tennessee is a 3-point home dog to Ole Miss.

Texas A&M (4-2, 1-2 SEC): Zach Calzada was selected National Quarterback of the Week by the Davey O’Brien Award. In leading the Aggies to a 41-38 upset win over then No. 1 Alabama, Calzada was 21-31 passing for 285 yards and three touchdowns. Vegas says: Texas A&M is an 8.5-point road favorite at Missouri.

Vanderbilt (2-4, 0-2 SEC): HBC Clark Lea says that for Vandy to stop the South Carolina running game it has to account for QB Luke Doty on every play: “He’s certainly athletic enough to move the chains and create scheduled runs. So, we’re going to be accounting for him, and there’s similarities in that sense in the style that Florida plays.” Vegas says: Vandy is an 18.5-point road dog at South Carolina.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Just a couple of months ago, Big Ten commish Kevin Warren was moaning that in a 12-team playoff the Southeastern Conference could have five or six teams! He didn’t exactly use the words conspiracy theory, but that was the implication as he and cohorts George Kliavkoff (Pac-12) and Jim Phillips (ACC) all but accused Greg Sankey of coming up with this 12-team model to crush the non-SEC leagues. Well, here we are halfway through the season and if the playoff were held today the Big Ten, not the SEC, would have five teams in. Based on the current rankings, the six automatic qualifiers (highest ranked conference champs) would be Georgia (SEC), Iowa (Big Ten), Cincinnati (American), Oklahoma (Big 12), Oregon (Pac-12) and Wake Forest (ACC). The SEC would have two of the remaining six at-large teams (Alabama and Kentucky) and the Big Ten would have the rest (Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State). Sounds like a real SEC conspiracy, doesn’t it? Warren should be begging for playoff expansion to 12 teams, the sooner the better. Notice Greg Sankey hasn’t said much throughout this other than to say the SEC (a) wasn’t pushing for expansion and (b) will be fine if it’s four, six, eight or 12 teams in the playoff. Warren would be wise to brush up on the writings in Proverbs. I’m paraphrasing here: Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.