Thoughts of the Day: October 14, 2021

A few thoughts to jumpstart your Thursday morning:

KICKOFF SATURDAY 11 A.M. CST COULD BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE If you’ve been around football in the Southeastern Conference for any length of time, then you’re well aware that daytime games at Tiger Stadium aren’t the same as games after the sun goes down. Tiger Stadium at night seems to be worth anywhere from 7-10 points to LSU’s advantage. The daytime Tigers have never seemed quite so fierce.

A plausible theory behind why LSU is so much better at night is that the crowd – the stadium seats more than 100,000 – starts drinking on Thursday and then continues throughout Friday and all day on Saturday. By the time foot hits football after sundown, the crowd has lost all its pent up inhibitions, making Tiger Stadium one of the most intimidating places to be found anywhere in college football.

Kickoff Saturday when the Florida Gators (4-2, 2-2 SEC) take the field against a struggling LSU (3-3, 1-2 SEC) team is 11 a.m. central time. The Gators can expect the Tiger Stadium crowd to be loud, but as loud as they would be after dark? Doubtful.

Given the way Florida struggled offensively with the boisterous crowd at Kentucky a couple of weeks ago, a less raucous Tiger Stadium could prove to be a blessing in disguise. At Kentucky, the Gators had eight false starts, two holds and a delay of game among their 15 penalties. A good many of those could be attributed to communication issues since the noise level was the highest anyone could remember in recent years at Kroger Field.

The experience of that Kentucky game combined with what is likely to be an LSU crowd that is a few decibels lower than usual, should help Emory Jones, who will be playing his second SEC road game, and the offensive line, which had a handful of false starts in Florida’s first four games. If everybody can hear themselves think – a problem for visiting teams at night at Tiger Stadium – then Jones could be in for a second straight career passing day. LSU will be without its two standout corners (Daryl Stingley Jr. and Eli Ricks), safety Major Burns (Georgia transfer), edge rusher Ali Gaye, linebacker Andre Anthony and tackle Joseph Evans.

No matter what time the game kicks off, Florida still has to play at a high level. Even in the daytime and with a depleted roster, LSU is not to be taken lightly, but if the Gators show up focused and ready to play, they should win this football game by more than the 10.5 points they’re favored.

OVER, UNDER, AROUND AND THROUGH THE SEC Alabama (5-1, 2-1 SEC): On ESPN’s “Get Up” Wednesday morning, Paul Finebaum said he can’t see Alabama making the College Football Playoff this year. Finebaum said, “I don’t think I’ve gone against Alabama in 10 years but I’m betting my house against them this time. I don’t see it because they have to play Georgia. They can negotiate the rest of the season. They probably will. They don’t have what I would call a dangerous game left. Of course, I didn’t think Texas A&M was a dangerous game but to beat Georgia this year, they have to do things they haven’t done this year. I don’t see it happening.”

Arkansas (4-2, 1-2 SEC): On the SEC Coaches Teleconference, HBC Sam Pittman said the Razorbacks have had to curtail some of their hitting at practice. “We were a little beat up heading into the A&M game, so we cut a few reps there,” Pittman said. “We’ll cut a few reps today simply because we are a little beat up. Normally, I wouldn’t do that. We’ll cut just a few, but not many.”

Auburn (4-2, 1-1 SEC): Auburn, which had seven dropped passes in its loss to Georgia last week, has 24 drops on the season, tops in the SEC.

Georgia (6-0, 4-0 SEC): Kentucky’s defense has impressed HBC Kirby Smart. The Wildcats rank 18thnationally in total defense, allowing just 305 yards per game. On the SEC Teleconference Smart said, “They have a lot of different looks. They change up their coverages. They’re really good at disguising … It’s hard to play-action these guys.”

Kentucky (6-0, 4-0 SEC): HBC Mark Stoops knows Saturday’s game at Georgia will be decided on the line of scrimmage. “It’s a line of scrimmage league,” Stoops said on the SEC Coaches Teleconference. “We want to be very good at the line of scrimmage. We pride ourselves on being physical. We’re going to need to take that up another notch playing them [Georgia] this year.”

LSU (3-3, 1-2 SEC): On the SEC Coaches Teleconference, Coach Oeaux confirmed that cornerback Eli Ricks will have surgery and will miss the rest of the season. “It was a nagging injury,” Coach Oeaux said. “He kept on playing with it, playing with it and it just kept reoccurring, so he and his family decided that he will get operated on.”

Mississippi State (3-3, 1-1 SEC): Through five games, QB Will Rogers has thrown 14 touchdown passes and leads the SEC in total offense at 371.2 yards per game. Rogers is completing 75 percent of his passes in the fourth quarter and hasn’t thrown an interception in the final period. He has 10 completions of 15 or more yards in the fourth quarter, most in the SEC.

Missouri (3-3, 0-2 SEC): Texas A&M defensive coordinator Mike Elko has impressed Mizzou HBC Eli Drinkwitz. “He does a really good job disguising his blitzes,” Drinkwitz said on the SEC Coaches Teleconference. “He was able to get Alabama with bringing overload pressures. He has a multiplicity of schemes.”

Ole Miss (4-1, 1-1 SEC): HBC Lane Kiffin discussed the Tennessee defense Tuesday. “Very multiple, fast players, different scheme than what we’re used to seeing in practice,” Kiffin said. “Presents a lot of challenges because we haven’t played much of it and haven’t played it in practice so this is very challenging for us because of the way they play the front and all the single high they play.”

South Carolina (3-3, 0-3 SEC): South Carolina’s offense is ranked No. 109 nationally at 335.5 yards per game. Quarterback Luke Doty says the Gamecocks’ problem is “just starting and finishing drives. We’ve come out in the first quarter and we go three-and-out, three-and-out, maybe get a drive going then stall out. So, really, it’s just about finishing drives and starting fast.”

Tennessee (4-2, 2-1 SEC): HBC Josh Heupel and Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin faced each other when Heupel was at UCF and Kiffin at Florida Atlantic. Kiffin’s offensive coordinator, Jeff Lebby, was with Heupel at UCF, so there is a good bit of familiarity. “There are certainly some similarities from him as far as what they’re doing offensively and what he did at FAU,” Heupel said on the SEC Coaches Teleconference. “There are some changes, too, with who he brought in as offensive coordinator. There are some similarities to what we do actually.”

Texas A&M (4-2, 1-2 SEC): Discussing what it will take for Texas A&M to avoid a letdown against Missouri following their win over then No. 1 Alabama, Jimbo Fisher said, “It takes leadership. It takes trust. It takes everything and that’s the challenge. People who can stan focused, no matter who your opponent is. That’s what I’m talking about. Your opponent’s faceless. It’s your standard, based on nothing else. You match the standard.”

Vanderbilt (2-4, 0-2 SEC): HBC Clark Lea expects tailback Rocko Griffin to be available for Saturday’s game with South Carolina. Griffin injured his ankle in the Commodores’ 42-0 loss to Florida. “He has got to have a healthy week in practice,” Lea said. “I saw Rocko this morning. He was in good spirits and I think he’s trending the right way. So, we’ll be excited to have him out there with us on Saturday.”

BRUCE FELDMAN OF THE ATHLETIC ON MANNY DIAZ REMAINING GAINFULLY EMPLOYED “A couple of key factors to know: The buyout if UM wants to move on from Diaz is believed to be north of $8 million. Additionally, they have assistants on multi-year deals, so any coaching search would likely mean an investment of some $20 million for 2022 if they’re paying market rate for a new staff.

“… Sources told The Athletic that Miami leadership is going to back Diaz at least through this year unless they believe that the team essentially quits on him and stop showing grit.”

CONFERENCE USA MAKES A REALIGNMENT PROPOSAL WITH THE AMERICAN In a letter obtained by Sports Illustrated, Conference USA has proposed what it calls “realignment/reorganization” with what’s left of the American Athletic Conference, which is about to lose Cincinnati, Houston and UCF to the Big 12. It’s an interesting proposal that, if implemented, would produce a scheduling alliance between two 12-team conferences with some natural geographic advantages that would result in rivalry games and immediate savings on travel.

Here is what the two conferences would look like:

Eastern: East Carolina, Charlotte, Old Dominion, Temple, Marshall, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, South Florida, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky and two new teams. Navy, which is currently a football-only member of the AAC is not included.

Western: SMU, North Texas, Rice, UTEP, Southern Miss, Tulane, Tulsa, Louisiana Tech, Wichita State, UAB, Memphis and Texas-San Antonio.

From a strictly geographic standpoint, there is merit to this proposal. However, CBSSports.com reports there isn’t much interest from the American or from the Sun Belt, which could also be involved in the realignment talks.

Why it isn’t going to work: Until the next wave of expansion and realignment takes place within the five power conferences, leagues like the American aren’t going to go for a proposal that would create new leagues and scatter its teams. There is a really good chance the Big Ten, whose media contract with Fox Sports and ESPN expires in 2023 will poach Kansas (for basketball) and Iowa State (decent football team for the Western Division) as a way to move along contract talks with Fox Sports and ESPN. Kansas basketball scores better ratings for ESPN than Saturday night college football. Imagine the ripple effect in the Pac-12, ACC and Big 12 if the Big 12 expands. Imagine the chaos in the Group of Five.

You can’t blame Conference USA for trying to get ahead of the realignment/expansion curve but right now everybody is waiting to see which power conference blinks first before all hell breaks loose.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Back when he was everybody’s leading candidate to win the Heisman Trophy, Spencer Rattler was picking up NIL deals that included a couple of cars and endorsements that have been reported to be somewhere in the $200,000 range. All of the money was guaranteed. There is speculation that Rattler could be transferring out rather than sit the bench behind freshman Caleb Williams, who led Oklahoma to a miracle comeback when Rattler was yanked in the second quarter of the Texas game. To those who ponied up to get Rattler signed, sealed and delivered, all you can say is suckers. Up at Ohio State, Quinn Ewers has an NIL deal worth $1.4 million. He left high school early to cash in on the deal, but he’s up at Ohio State where starting QB CJ Stroud, who is a redshirt freshman, has thrown 18 touchdown passes. Backing up Stroud are Kyle McCord (freshman, former 5-star recruit) and Jack Miller (redshirt freshman, former 4-star recruit). How long does Ewers stay at Ohio State given the circumstances? Alabama’s Bryce Young has deals worth something like $1 million, but how many NIL success stories are there and how many questionable deals like the ones Rattler and Ewers have? My guess is there are few real NIL success stories and that there will be fewer big deals to be had in the future. I’m not sure that will be bad for college sports.