Thoughts of the Day: September 1, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:

GOOD THINGS HAPPEN WHEN YOU STUFF THE RUN The numbers don’t lie when it comes to pinpointing Florida’s defensive issues in 2020. The 2019 defense, which ranked 9th overall nationally and 8th against the run, gave up 102.77 yards per game on the ground and just 3.19 per carry. Only nine rushing touchdowns were scored against the Gators. In 2020, when the Gators were 83rd nationally in total defense, they were 71st against the run (170.5 yards per game, 4.56 per carry).

In eight of Florida’s 12 games, opponents ran for at least 159 yards. Contrast that to only two games with more than 150 and just five with more than 100 in 2019. In the four losses (Texas A&M, LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma) the Gators gave up seven rushing touchdowns and 1,006 yards. Any competent defensive coordinator will tell you, when you can’t stop the run, odds are you are going to struggle against the pass, too. Not surprisingly, the Gators allowed 14 touchdown passes in the four losses in 2020.

A year ago, the Gators were so soft in the middle that opponents simply lined up and knocked the UF D-line off the football. That should change this year with what looks to be Florida’s best defensive tackle rotation in years. Thanks to the transfer portal which has delivered Antonio Valentino (Penn State), Daquan Newkirk (Auburn) and Tryone Truesdell to go with Gervon Dextor, Jalen Lee and Demond Watson, the Gators have the potential to plug the gaps and get penetration up the gut.

The ripple effect of stuffing the run is opponents become one-dimensional and the pressure off the edge is amplified. If the tackles can also get penetration up the gut then Brenton Cox Jr. and Zachary Carter will have big years off the edge and Florida’s secondary will not have to cover as long, hence improved pass defense.

For a coordinator who seemed fortunate to keep his job after the debacle of last year’s final three games, Todd Grantham may have found the formula to make the Gators top 30 or better defensively. Those transfer tackles not only may restore Florida’s defense but they may also make Dan Mullen’s decision to keep Grantham seem like a stroke of genius.

WHERE THEY WERE RANKED IN HIGH SCHOOL: OT Here are the top 10 offensive tackle recruits in the country every year since 2010. There are a bunch of names that might seem a bit overhyped in retrospect.

2010 1. Seantrel Henderson (Saint Paul, MN), Miami; 2. Ja’Wuan James (Suwanee, GA), Tennessee; 3. Robert Crisp (Hillsborough, NC), North Carolina State; 4. James Hurst (Plainfield, NJ), North Carolina; 5. Jake Matthews (Missouri City, TX), Texas A&M; 6. Chaz Green (Tampa, FL), Florida; 7. Luke Joeckel (Arlington, TX), Texas A&M; 8. Ian Silberman (Orange Park, FL), Florida; 9. Brent Benedict (Jacksonville, FL), Georgia; 10. Andrew Norwell (Cincinnati, OH), Ohio State

2011 1. Cyrus Kouandjio (Hyattsville, MD), Alabama; 2. La’el Collins (Baton Rouge, LA), LSU; 3. Christian Westerman (Chandler, AZ), Auburn; 4. Matt Hegarty (Aztec, NM), Notre Dame; 5. Brey Cook (Springdale, AR), Arkansas; 6. Kiaro Holts (Indianapolis, IN), North Carolina; 7. Andre Yruretagoyena (Paradise Valley, AZ), Oregon; 8. Antonio Richardson (Nashville, TN), Tennessee; 9. Brandon Shell (Goose Creek, SC), South Carolina; 10. Cameron Clear (Memphis, TN), Tennessee

2012 1. D.J. Humphries (Charlotte, NC), Florida; 2. Kyle Murphy (San Clemente, CA), Stanford; 3. John Theus (Jacksonville, FL), Georgia; 4. Andrus Peat (Tempe, AZ), Stanford; 5. Kennedy Estelle (Pearland, TX), Texas; 6. Max Tuerk (Rancho Santa Margarita, CA), Southern Cal; 7. Zach Banner (Lakewood, WA), Southern Cal; 8. Avery Young (Palm Beach Gardens, FL), Auburn; 9. Erik Manguson (Encinitas, CA), Michigan; 10. Jordan Diamond (Chicago, IL), Auburn

2013 1. Laremy Tunsil (Lake City, FL), Ole Miss; 2. A’Shawn Robinson (Fort Worth, TX), Alabama; 3. Kent Perkins (Dallas, TX), Texas; 4. Dorian Johnson (Belle Vernon, PA), Pitt; 5. Ethan Pocic (Lemont, IL), LSU; 6. Evan Lisle (Dayton, OH), Ohio State; 7. Derin Gray (Washington, DC), Maryland; 8. Austin Golson (Prattville, AL), Ole Miss; 9. Hunter Biven (Owensboro, KY), Notre Dame; 10. Steve Elmer (Midland, MI), Notre Dame

2014 1. Cam Robinson (West Monroe, LA), Alabama; 2. Damian Prince (District Heights, MD), Maryland; 3. KC McDermott (West Palm Beach, FL), Miami; 4. Jamaco Jones (Chicago, IL), Ohio State; 5. Quenton Nelson (Red Bank, NJ), Notre Dame; 6. Ross Pierschbacher (Cedar Falls, IA), Alabama; 7. Casey Tucker (Chandler, AZ), Stanford; 8. Brian Wallace (St. Louis, MO), Arkansas; 9. Trevor Darling (Miami, FL), Miami; 10. Alex Bars (Nashville, TN), Notre Dame

2015 1. Martez Ivey (Apopka, FL), Florida; 2. Mitch Hyatt (Suwanee, GA), Clemson; 3. Drew Richmond (Memphis, TN), Tennessee; 4. Abdul Bello (Montverde, FL), Florida State; 5. Isaiah Prince (Greenbelt, MD), Ohio State; 6. Toby Weathersby (Houston, TX), LSU; 7. Chidi Okeke (Ludowici, GA), LSU; 8. Jake Fruhmorgen (Tampa, FL), Clemson; 9. Jack Jones (Murfreesboro, TN), Tennessee; 10. Keenan Walker (Paradise Valley, AZ), Arizona

2016 1. Greg Little (Allen, TX), Ole Miss; 2. Jonah Williams (Folsom, CA), Alabama; 3. Tommy Kraemer (Cincinnati, OH), Notre Dame; 4. Landon Dickerson (Hudson, NC), Florida State; 5. Ben Bredeson (Hartland, WI), Michigan; 6. Landon Young (Lexington, KY), Kentucky; 7. Liam Eichenberg (Cleveland, OH), Notre Dame; 8. E.J. Price (Lawrenceville, GA), Southern Cal; 9. Darvis Holmes (Lincolnton, GA), Missouri; 10. Ben Cleveland (Toccoa, GA), Georgia

2017 1. Alex Leatherwood (Pensacola, FL), Alabama; 2. Foster Sarell (Graham, WA), Stanford; 3. Walker Little (Bellaire, TX), Stanford; 4. Trey Smith (Jackson, TN), Tennessee; 5. Isaiah Wilson (Brooklyn, NY), Georgia; 6. Calvin Ashley (Washington, DC), Auburn; 7. Jedrick Wills (Lexington, KY), Alabama; 8. Austin Jackson (Phoenix, AZ), Southern Cal; 9. Andrew Thomas (Atlanta, GA), Georgia; 10. Austin Deculus (Cypress, TX), LSU

2018 1. Nicholas Petit-Frere (Tampa, FL), Ohio State; 2. Jackson Carman (Fairfield, OH), Clemson; 3. Cade Mays (Knoxville, TN), Georgia; 4. Brey Walker (Moore, OK), Oklahoma; 5. William Barnes (Apopka, FL), North Carolina; 6. Rasheed Walker (Waldorf, MD), Penn State; 7. Richard Gouraige (Tampa, FL), Florida; 8. Nana Asiedu (Stafford, VA), Penn State; 9. Max Wray (Franklin, TN), Ohio State; 10. Junior Angilau (Salt Lake City, UT), Texas

2019 1. Evan Neal (Bradenton, FL), Alabama; 2. Darnell Wright (Huntington, WV), Tennessee; 3. Kenyon Green (Humble, TX), Texas A&M; 4. Logan Brown (Grand Rapids, MI), Wisconsin; 5. Charles Cross (Laurel, MS), Mississippi State; 6. Wanya Morris (Loganville, GA), Tennessee; 7. Pierce Quick (Trussville, AL), Alabama; 8. Tyler Johnson (Conroe, TX), Texas; 9. Jonah Tauahu’u (Harbor City, CA), Oregon; 10. Amari Knight (Alabaster, AL), Alabama

2020 1. Paris Johnson Jr. (Cincinnati, OH), Ohio State; 2. Broderick Jones (Lithonia, GA), Georgia; 3. Tate Ratledge (Rome, GA), Georgia; 4. Turner Corcoran (Lawrence, KS), Nebraska; 5. Walker Parks (Lexington, KY), Clemson; 6. Myles Hinton (Norcross, GA), Stanford; 7. Trey Wedig (Wales, WI), Wisconsin; 8. Andrew Gentry (Littleton, CO), Virginia; 9. Tosh Baker (Phoenix, AZ), Notre Dame; 10. Jack Nelson (Stoughton, WI), Wisconsin

2021 1. JC Latham (Bradenton, FL), Alabama; 2. Tommy Brockermeyer (Fort Worth, TX), Alabama; 3. Amarius Mims (Cochran, GA), Georgia; 4. Tristan Leigh (Fairfax, VA), Clemson; 5. Nolan Rucci (Lititz, PA), Wisconsin; 6. Kingsley Suamataia (Orem, UT), Oregon; 7. Landon Tengwall (Olney, MD), Penn State; 8. Blake Fisher (Avon, IN), Notre Dame; 9. Micah Morris (Kingsland, GA), Georgia; 10. Bram Walden (Scottsdale, AZ), Oregon

TRY TO REMEMBER A KIND OF SEPTEMBER … Alabama: 9/4 vs. Miami (Atlanta); 9/11 Mercer; 9/18 at Florida; 9/25 Southern Miss The only two games that are a concern at Miami in the opener and Florida on September 18 and both have everything to do with QB Bryce Young starting his first collegiate game against Miami and playing his first game on the road in the SEC against the Gators. Prediction: A shaky 4-0

Arkansas: 9/4 Rice; 9/11 Texas; 9/18 Georgia Southern; 9/25 vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, TX) Winning game one shouldn’t be a problem but the rest of September won’t be easy. The Hogs will be underdogs to Texas and Texas A&M. The sandwich game with Georgia Southern could be a problem. Prediction: 2-2

Auburn: 9/4 Akron; 9/11 Alabama State; 9/18 at Penn State; 9/25 Georgia State There is only one losable game and that’s the road trip to Penn State. Winning that one is going to depend on just how much Bo Nix has progressed under the new coaching staff. Prediction: 3-1 start which puts the Tigers halfway to a bowl game in Bryan Harsin’s first year on the job.

FLORIDA: 9/4 Florida Atlantic; 9/11 at South Florida; 9/18 Alabama; 9/25 Tennessee The first two games should be blowouts and that brings us to Alabama. The game’s in The Swamp so the crowd will be loud and rowdy, ready to give Bryce Young his first taste of SEC hell. Can the UF crowd give the Gators enough of a boost to spring the upset? The only way the Gators lose to Tennessee if there is if there is an Alabama hangover, whether giddiness for having sprung an upset or disappointment from a white knuckles loss. Prediction: 3-1 but the one is white knuckles to the very end.

Georgia: 9/4 vs. Clemson (Charlotte); 9/11 UAB; 9/18 South Carolina; 9/25 Vanderbilt The first game sets the tone for the entire season. Beat Clemson and Georgia will have only one losable game the rest of the way (Florida, October 30). Lose to Clemson and the pressure will be on Georgia the rest of the way, particularly leading up to UF in Jacksonville. Prediction: 3-1

Kentucky: 9/4 Louisiana Monroe; 9/11 Missouri; 9/18 Chattanooga; 9/25 at South Carolina The only worrisome game for the Wildcats is that 9/11 game with Missouri, which beat UK 20-10 last year. The game is in Lexington, so UK should win. Prediction: 4-0 and needing only two wins in the last eight to make a sixth straight bowl.

LSU: 9/4 UCLA; 9/11 McNeese State; 9/18 Central Michigan; 9/25 at Mississippi State About the only thing that can keep LSU from a 4-0 start is Hurricane Ida. Most of Louisiana is without electricity for the next several weeks so games may have to be played elsewhere and players will be distracted, worrying about family. Prediction: A shaky 4-0

Mississippi State: 9/4 Louisiana Tech; 9/11 North Carolina State; 9/18 at Memphis; 9/25 LSU They’re without electricity in Starkville and there was flooding due to Hurricane Ida. The only easy game on the schedule is Louisiana Tech. The other three are losable. Prediction: 2-2

Missouri: 9/4 Central Michigan; 9/11 at Kentucky; 9/18 SE Missouri State; 9/25 at Boston College Games two and four are on the road and both are quite losable. The Tigers went 5-5 last year by sneaking up on folks. No sneaking up this year. Prediction: 2-2

Ole Miss: 9/6 vs. Louisville (Atlanta); 9/11 Austin Peay; 9/18 Tulane Just what the doctor ordered for the Rebels, three very winnable games right out of the chute plus an open date before the Alabama game (October 2 in Tuscaloosa). Prediction: 3-0

South Carolina: 9/4 Eastern Illinois; 9/11 at East Carolina; 9/18 at Georgia; 9/25 Kentucky The first two games should produce two wins but then there is Georgia and Kentucky to end September. Not good. Prediction: 2-2

Tennessee: 9/4 Bowling Green; 9/11 Pittsburgh; 9/18 Tennessee Tech; 9/25 at Florida Games one and three are winnable. Pitt is a toss-up. Beating the Gators in Gainesville might take a miracle. Prediction: 2-2

Texas A&M: 9/4 Kent State; 9/11 at Colorado; 9/18 New Mexico; 9/25 vs. Arkansas (Arlington, TX) This is the perfect schedule for a team breaking in a redshirt freshman QB and new O-linemen. Very little chance the Aggies will lose a game in September. Prediction: 4-0

Vanderbilt: 9/4 East Tennessee State; 9/11 at Colorado State; 9/18 Stanford; 9/25 Georgia The Clark Lea era will begin with a win over a D1AA team and it will be a struggle the rest of the way. There’s only one other winnable game on the schedule and it’s not in September. Prediction: 1-3

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Quinn Ewers, who should be a high school senior in Texas, has signed a name, image, likeness (NIL) deal worth $1.4 million. It’s a 3-year deal for autographs. Supposedly, he’s going to have another monster NIL deal with a tea company. There is a very good chance Ewers won’t even see the field this year at Ohio State, especially if redshirt freshman QB C.J. Stroud is as brilliant in games as he has been in practice in August. So what happens if Stroud is so good that Ryan Day doesn’t dare bench him? What happens if Ewers sits all year and 2021 stretches into 2022 and beyond? And what happens in the locker room if a guy who can’t even see the field is getting all this money? Will there be resentment? Will the money follow Ewers if he remains buried on the depth chart? Brace yourself because college football is never going to be the same again and Quinn Ewers is just the tip of the spear.