Back to the future: Can the Gators return January, February form?

Boogie Fland drives on Auburn (Photo by Chris Spears)

Was Nashville just a speed bump for 4^th-ranked Florida or a signal that perhaps the Gators have run out of gas? Those two games at the SEC Tournament – an 8-point win over Kentucky; a 17-point loss to Vanderbilt – bore faint resemblance to the Gators who, from January 7 until the end of the Southeastern Conference regular season, were playing as well or better than any team in the country.

Getting the Gators back into their winning groove is the focus this week as they prepare for their first round NCAA matchup with the winner of Wednesday’s play-in game in Dayton between Lehigh (18-16) and Prairie View A&M (18-17) Friday night in Tampa (9:25 p.m., TNT). Game one should be nothing more than a glorified scrimmage for the Gators, who will face the winner of the 8-9 game between Clemson (24-10) and Iowa (21-12) Sunday in the second round.

“Obviously we play either Prairie View or Lehigh on Friday,” Todd Golden said Monday. “We're going to be heavy favorites in that game. There's no way around it. I think they're 284 and 288 on kenpom or something like that. That's a game that we expect to win, regardless of who we play.”

The better test for the Gators will be the Clemson-Iowa winner. The Gators like to play the game at breakneck speed but that’s not the pace that either Clemson or Iowa prefer. They milk the shot clock, shoot the three reasonably well and prefer playing games in the 70s. Florida, on the other hand, has scored 90 or more points 10 times since the Gators got their first SEC win over Georgia.

Two things have to happen for the Gators to dictate a faster pace: (1) Significant reduction in turnovers; and (2) take the physical battle to whoever they play.

In Nashville, the Gators turned the ball over 18 times in their 71-63 win over Kentucky. Against Vanderbilt, nine first half Florida turnovers were converted into 20 points, which had everything to do with a 47-32 halftime deficit.

“There's not a worse recipe for success against Vanderbilt than doing that,” Golden said. “We'll address it, and I feel confident that we'll get it right for this week.”

Both Kentucky and Vanderbilt employed a no body bag, no foul approach in Nashville. Any time the ball went inside, they surrounded whoever had the ball for the Gators and did what amounts to a mugging. Sometimes fouls were called. Too often they were not.

Now, in both games, the Gators were the dominant rebounding team but because of the physicality in the paint, point production was off.

“We got back 46 percent of our misses against Kentucky and then 57 percent of our misses against Vanderbilt,” Golden pointed out, later admitting, “I think teams did a good job being physical with us … we want to bring the fight to everybody physically. We do that more often than not. We talk a lot to our team about being the mentally and physically tougher team. We might have been that on Friday, but we weren't that on Saturday.”

Resolve those issues in practice this week and perhaps the Gators will get back to where they were when the good times were rolling in January and February.

“We had been playing like the number two team in America since January 7^th,” Golden said. “So we know what we're capable of. We know what that looks like. We just got to go back out and do it.”

Associated Press top 25: 1. Duke 32-2; 2. Arizona 32-2; 3. Michigan 31-3; 4. FLORIDA 26-7; 5. Houston 28-6; 6. Iowa State 27-7; 7. UConn 29-5; 8. Purdue 27-8; 9. Virginia 29-5; 10. St. John’s 28-6; 11. Michigan State 25-7; 12. Gonzaga 30-3; 13. Illinois 24-8; 14. Arkansas 26-8; 15. Nebraska 26-6; 16. Vanderbilt 26-8; 17. Kansas 23-10; 18. Alabama 23-9; 19. Wisconsin 24-10; 20. Texas Tech 22-10; 21. North Carolina 24-8; 22. Saint Mary’s 27-5; 23. (Tie) Tennessee 22-11; Louisville 23-10; 25. Miami 25-7

Coaches top 25: 1. Duke 32-2; 2. Arizona 32-2; 3. Michigan 31-3; 4. FLORIDA 26-7; 5. Houston 28-6; 6. Iowa State 27-7; 7. UConn 29-5; 8. Virginia 29-5; 9. St. John’s 28-6; 10. Gonzaga 30-3; 11. Michigan State 25-7; 12. Illinois 24-8; 13. Purdue 27-8; 14. Nebraska 26-6; 15. Arkansas 26-8; 16. Vanderbilt 26-8; 17. Kansas 23-10; 18. Alabama 23-9; 19. Texas Tech 22-10; 20 Wisconsin 24-10; 21. North Carolina 24-8; 22. Saint Mary’s 27-5; 23. Miami 25-8; 24. Louisville 23-10; 25. Tennessee 22-11

SEC FIRST WEEKEND

FLORIDA (1 South/4 Overall No. 1 seed)

First round: vs. 16 Prairie View/Lehigh

Second round: vs. 8 Clemson vs. 9 Iowa winner

Florida (26-7) will probably win the first round game by at least 30-35 points. This will be carnage. Second round, Clemson (24-10) suffered a huge loss when second leading scorer Carter Welling (10.2 points, 5.4 rebounds) suffered a torn ACL. Iowa (21-12) has two outstanding shooting guards in Bennett Stirtz (20 points, 37.5 percent on threes) and Tavion Banks (10.5 points, 47.2 percent on threes). Iowa is a 2.5-point favorite in a low possession, low scoring matchup.

Prediction: After the first game tuneup, there will be a significant step up in competition. Clemson and Iowa are good teams but neither one has the size or inside power of the Gators. As long as the Gators defend the perimeter, they advance to the Sweet 16.

ALABAMA (4 Midwest)

First round: vs. 13 Hofstra

Second round: vs. 5 Texas Tech-12 Akron winner

When Alabama (23-9) goes into a shooter’s coma, the Crimson Tide can cover up its deficiencies in the paint and on defense. The question as of Monday is how will Nate Oats compensate for the loss of second leading scorer Aden Holloway (16.8 points, 43.8 percent 3-pointers)? Even without Holloway Bama should outrun Hofstra with its 4-guard offense, but the second round game against the Texas Tech (22-10)-Akron (29-5) winner could be problematic. Both those teams shoot and rebound well.

Prediction: Even if Alabama gets to the Sweet 16, Michigan (31-3) will be waiting.

ARKANSAS (4 West)

First round: vs. 13 Hawaii

Second round: vs. 5 Wisconsin-12 High Point winner

Arkansas (26-8) went 3-0 in Nashville to claim the SEC Tournament. So much attention is given to freshman Darius Acuff Jr. (22.9 points, 6.5 assists) but the guy who makes the Razorbacks go is Billy Richmond III, their version of the Swiss Army Knife. When Arkansas is making threes it’s capable of beating anyone. Injuries have forced John Calipari to get by with a 7-man rotation. That won’t be a problem in the first round with Hawaii (24-8). The Razorbacks have the firepower to overwhelm Wisconsin (24-10)-High Point (30-4) winning in the second round.

Prediction: On to the Sweet 16 where the likely opponent will be Arizona (32-2).

VANDERBILT (5 South)

First round: vs. 12 McNeese State

Second round: vs. 4 Nebraska-12 Troy winner

Now that Duke Miles is back and healthy, Vanderbilt (26-8) is playing at a very high level. First round opponent McNeese State (28-5) can make the Commodores work for a win, but if Nebraska (26-6) is the second round opponent, Vandy will have to have a night when all its shooters show up and go into one of those can’t miss comas when everything goes bottom of the net.

Prediction: Two-and-through. As much as Vandy wants a Sweet 16 matchup with Florida, Nebraska will be too much of an inside presence, plus the Cornhuskers don’t turn the ball over.

TENNESSEE (6 Midwest)

First round: vs. 11 Miami (OH)/SMU winner

Second round: vs. 3 Virginia-14 Wright State winner

The Vols (22-11) should get a first round win over the winner of Miami (31-1) or SMU (20-13). If Rick Barnes can convince his troops to play the kind of defense that is his trademark, the Vols are certainly capable of knocking off Virginia (29-5) to set up a Sweet 16 with Iowa State (27-7). The Vols will go as far as freshman Nate Ament (18 points, 6.6 rebounds) will carry them.

Prediction: Sweet 16 with a chance to make the Elite Eight if Felix Okpara plays lights out in the middle.

KENTUCKY (7 Midwest)

First round: vs. 10 Santa Clara

Second round: vs. 2 Iowa State-15 Tennessee State winner

Kentucky (21-13) got a potentially troublesome first round matchup with Santa Clara (26-8) of the West Coast Conference. The Broncos can match Kentucky’s size and in Christian Hammond, they have one of the better 3-point shooters in the tournament. If the Wildcats get past Santa Clara, Iowa State and matchup nightmare Milan Momcilovic (17.1 points, 49.6 percent on threes) await. Kentucky is capable of winning both these games, but it’s been a roller coaster of a season and you don’t know which Kentucky team will show up.

Prediction: Two-and-through. The Wildcats will eke by Santa Clara and will be sent packing by Iowa State.

GEORGIA (8 Midwest)

First round: vs. 9 St. Louis

Second round: vs. 1 Michigan-16 UMBC/Howard  winner

If you’re looking for a first round track meet, then this is your game. Georgia (22-10) is fifth nationally in scoring (89.8 per game) and Saint Louis (28-5) is tenth (87.2). The Billikens can score and they’re one of the best passing teams in the country. Georgia’s key to success will be keeping center Somto Cyril out of foul trouble. If he blocks shots and rebounds, Georgia can win. Second round? Georgia and Michigan share a common opponent – Auburn. Georgia beat Auburn by four in overtime. Michigan beat Auburn by 40.

Prediction: Two-and-through. Georgia wins one, then gets its doors blown off by Michigan.

TEXAS A&M (10 South)

First round: vs. 7 Saint Mary’s

Second round: vs. 2 Iowa State-15 Tennessee State winner

The Aggies (21-11) play what head coach Bucky McMillan calls mother-in-law defense, which is to say they full court press and try to be annoying. The only problem is if they can’t turn opponents over and have to play in the half court they’re vulnerable. First round opponent Saint Mary’s (27-5) rarely turns it over, shoots the 3-pointer well, and has a huge front line that rebounds and controls the paint. Should the Aggies get by Saint Mary’s and its stud power forward Paulius Marauskas (18.8 points, 7.7) rebounds, Iowa State (27-7) lurks. Bad draw for Bucky Ball.

Prediction: One-and-done.

MISSOURI (10 West)

First round: vs. 7 Miami

Second round: vs. 2 Purdue-15 Queens winner

Missouri (20-12) got blown out by Kansas, Illinois and Alabama. The Tigers’ win over Florida is more about what Florida didn’t do than what Mizzou did to win the game. The first round matchup with Miami (25-7) because Miami struggles against teams with size and that’s what Missouri has in abundance. But whether or not it’s a good first round, Big Ten champ Purdue (27-8) awaits.

Prediction: One-and-done likely but two-and-though just in case the Tigers score a first round surprise.

TEXAS (11 West)

Tuesday play-in: vs. North Carolina State

First round: (If Texas wins) vs. 6 BYU

Second round: vs. 3 Gonzaga-14 Kennesaw State winner

Texas (18-14) barely got in the field and suffers the indignity of a first round game with North Carolina State (20-13). Fortunately for the Longhorns, who have lost three straight, North Carolina State was worse down the stretch losing six of its last eight. Get by the Wolfpack and BYU (23-11) and its stud freshman AJ Dybantsa stands in the way. The Longhorns won’t make it to Saturday and Gonzaga (30-3).

Prediction: A play-in win and a rapid exit.