College Football State Of The Union

How soon before the rats start leaping off this sinking ship? And who goes first?

There is a scene in the 1988 Barry Levinson film “Rain Man” in which Charlie Babbitt (played by Tom Cruise) hands over his autistic savant brother Raymond (played by Dustin Hoffman) to Dr. Gerald Bruner, who runs an institution in Cincinnati where Raymond has been a patient for several years. As he regains custody, Dr. Bruner promises to put Raymond in some clothes from K-Mart, at which time Charlie says, “Tell him Raymond.” Raymond’s reply: “K-Mart sucks!”

For all practical purposes, that movie put K-Mart on life support. Once a huge discount retail chain, only three K-Marts remain in existence.

That scene from “Rain Man” pretty much tells the tale of the current Pac-12 Conference. It sucks and it’s on life support. About the only thing that can save the Pac-12 from going under is a miracle of the receding tsunami that was all set to wash away Tumaco, Colombia in 1906. A priest performed the sacraments as the tsunami approached and miraculously, the waters receded, sparing a city of more than 100,000.

Right now, only the bravest of the brave think the Pac-12 is going to survive. Paul Finebaum predicts there will be no such conference in existence by 2026. Finebaum might be an optimist. The league might be as good as dead and buried by the end of this month unless commissioner George Kliavkoff can deliver on his promise for a media rights deal and then follow it up by expanding by at least two teams.

Here is what Finebaum has to say about that: “If you’re a member of the Pac-12, I mean you’re literally going to the dollar store looking for other schools … but why would you want to be in that league if you could get out?”

Translation: "K-Mart sucks!"

Indeed. A conference whose membership included Southern Cal, which has won 111 NCAA titles and 11 national championships in football (8 since the AP poll began), and UCLA, which has won 121 NCAA titles including one football and 11 basketball titles, wants to replace those two with San Diego State and SMU? That is like replacing a matching pair of Ferraris for a couple of used Yugos only driven to church on Sunday by twin sisters.

The Pac-12 holds its media day starting on July 21. Can commissioner George Kliavkoff put a deal together by the end of the month? Optimistic outlets on the Left Coast believe the 10 schools that remain in the league are willing to wait a year, banking on the guarantee of College Football Playoff money to bring in a decent contract while making the Pac-12 a more attractive landing spot for expansion. But, as Finebaum points out, who will want to join the league? And, are the four northern schools (Washington, Oregon, Stanford, California) that want Big Ten money willing to wait for a contract that some experts say will be worth less than $20 million per school? The four southern schools (Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado) can join the Big 12 for nearly what they’re making now in the expiring Pac-12 deal. That Big 12 offer isn’t going to be on the table much longer.

How soon before the rats start leaping off this sinking ship? And who goes first? The schools up north or the four down south?

Once the first school bolts the Pac-12, others will follow and that will set off a chain reaction that will change the landscape of college football. Some of the changes will be cosmetic in nature, but some of them will nose dive conferences and schools, taking down decades of traditions with them.

Here is a look at Division I football conference-by-conference. Which conferences are strong? Which are vulnerable?

The Power 5

1. Southeastern Conference

This is easily the most powerful league in all of college sports. It has the most rabid fan bases, the best facilities, nationally prominent teams in every single sport and best of all, it has the single most powerful individual in all of college sports – maybe in all of sports period – in Greg Sankey. Sankey tries to downplay the label, but it’s senseless to argue. He is the smartest guy in any room and because of this, if and when Division I football begins the mass exodus from the NCAA, Sankey will be one of the architects of the new organization.

Texas and Oklahoma will join the SEC on July 1, 2024, so this is their last year in the Big 12. When they join the SEC, the already most powerful conference adds two schools that have won a combined 11 national championships in football (Oklahoma 7, Texas 4). They join a conference that has won 43. Texas and Oklahoma bring 88 non-football national championships to the league (SEC has won 214). In the 2022-23 year alone, the SEC won eight national titles (Georgia football, Arkansas men’s and women’s indoor track, Florida men’s golf and men’s outdoor track, LSU women’s basketball and baseball, Vanderbilt bowling). Oklahoma won NCAA titles in softball and women’s gymnastics, while Texas won for women’s outdoor track.

Football pays the freight and is the reason ESPN signed a 10-year contract that assures the current SEC schools at least $17 million a year more. That deal will be renegotiated before Texas and Oklahoma join the league and by the time the ink dries you can bet the farm every school in the SEC will be taking in anywhere from $85-100 million a year in media rights money.

For all the talk about the SEC expanding beyond 16 teams, the only potential new member that could move the television needle is Notre Dame and the Irish are perfectly content as an independent with their new NBC deal that will bring in $60 million or more. Contractually, Notre Dame can’t join any conference but the ACC until the current ACC media deal expires. Given the choice of independence or the ACC, Notre Dame will remain independent.

As for Clemson, Florida State, Miami and North Carolina, all of whom want out of the ACC, none of them move the TV needle even a fraction.

2. Big Ten

The additions of Southern Cal and UCLA seemed like a good idea at the moment when former commissioner Kevin Warren raided the Pac-12 for its two bell cows, but was it? The logistical nightmare is one that needs a solution in the worst way and that so-called brilliant $7 billion TV deal that involves Fox, CBS and has the look of a slice of Swiss cheese. There are holes, big ones, not the least of which is that teensy matter of the conference championship game rights being sold to NBC. Only problem is, there is a valid contract with Fox. Oops.

So, now we have a 16-team league that stretches from sea to shining sea. It’s more than 2,700 miles from Rutgers to Southern Cal, 2,243 miles from Ohio State to UCLA. Football isn’t a travel problem for teams since they only play once a week, but it’s a nightmare for fans and other sports. UCLA and Southern Cal have no rivals in the Big Ten, which will be an issue for television. Imagine you’re an ad exec trying to sell sponsorships of a Maryland-UCLA game? Maryland doesn’t move any television needles in any sport. You’d be surprised how little impact UCLA basketball has. And how about those November night games up in the Frost Belt? Don’t you know Southern Cal can hardly wait for that game in Minnesota (Gophers play outdoors).

Fox gets the noon game Eastern time so a Southern Cal or UCLA home game on Fox will have a 9 a.m. Pacific time start? That is going to go over like a fart in an elevator.

The Big Ten may be left with only one choice to find a way to make things work and that is to expand. Again. Washington, Oregon, Stanford and California are quietly on their hands and knees begging to secede from the Pac-12 to join the Big Ten. That’s a move that won’t bring in any money for the Big Ten, but it probably will be necessary to give Southern Cal and UCLA some Left Coast rivals to solve some of the logistic issues. Probably the only question is will there still be a Pac-12 when the Big Ten makes its move?

3. Big 12

Since becoming the new commish, Brett Yormark has sealed a media deal with Fox and ESPN that will pay $31 million a year. It’s an expandable deal if the Big 12 brings in the right schools and the likely culprits are Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. Arizona and Colorado have been actively involved in discussions with Yormark. Both have said they’d like to stay in the Pac-12, but if they’re confident the Pac-12 will survive, then why are they talking to the Big 12? They’re not and for good reason. The Pac-12 is on life support and the plug is about to be yanked out of the wall. When – not if – Arizona and Colorado leave for the Big 12, Arizona State and Utah will be doing their don’t let the screen door hit you in the butt routines to escape while the escaping is good.

The addition of these four schools to the Big 12 won’t cause Fox and ESPN to up the ante considerably for each school, but a $40 million a year deal is entirely possible.

With the additions of BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston, the Big 12 already has the look of a very good football conference. Add the four schools from the Pac-12 and it looks even better, not to mention the fact that the nation’s best basketball league will improve.

There is a Plan B in case the Pac-12 gets a walls of Jericho tumbling down miracle. That may involve bringing in UConn and either Memphis or South Florida for a 14-team league. The important thing to know is the Big 12 has contingency plans for everything and will emerge as the third best football league in the country and will become an even better basketball league.

4. Atlantic Coast Conference

Little Jimmy Phillips didn’t write the dumbest media contract in the history of college sports but he inherited it. As a result, he has half the members of his league hiring any and every lawyer they can to see if there is a way out of a league with an ironclad media deal with ESPN that will pay its members less than half what they could make in the SEC or Big Ten. To leave the ACC will require a $120 ransom. Nobody has that kind of spare change nor are the SEC or Big Ten begging any ACC schools to join. So, it’s a dilemma for Florida State, Miami, Clemson, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia and Virginia Tech. They all want more money, but where to get it?

The ACC’s media deal with ESPN doesn’t expire until 2036. ESPN sees no reason to renegotiate, especially considering the overall state of mediocrity among the league’s 14 football programs. A lack of intense rivalries makes it all but impossible for ACC games to knock the SEC games out of their ideal 3:30 or 7 p.m. slots. The only advantage the ACC has is its champion will likely breeze through the conference schedule and won’t be as beaten up at playoff time as their cousins in the SEC, Big Ten or Big 12.

The ACC could increase its revenue if it could somehow entice Notre Dame to become a football playing member. Notre Dame has a sweetheart deal in which it’s an ACC member in all sports men or women except for football. The Irish simply have to play five ACC football opponents a year, which will usually mean five wins. Notre Dame would move the ACC television needle considerably but not enough to raise the ACC media payout by an additional $20 million a year. Notre Dame isn’t going to take a paycut to leave independence for the ACC.

For the ACC to expand the other likely target would be West Virginia, which might be willing to bolt the Big 12 for the ACC due to geographic concerns. WVU fans would probably rather travel to Charlottesville, Blacksburg or Pittsburgh rather than Waco or Lubbock, but West Virginia doesn’t move the TV needle. And who would join the ACC with the Mountaineers? UConn would crawl backwards to Greensboro for an invitation. Geographically it would make sense and it would make sense for men’s and women’s basketball, but not for football.

Basically, the ACC is stuck where it is with a bad media deal, too many unhappy members and no expansion opportunities that make any sense.

5. The soon to be extinct Pac-12

As stated above, if there is no television deal in place by the end of the month, gravestones should be chiseled for the late, great Pacific 12 Conference with an epitaph that reads, “K-Mart sucks!”

6. American Athletic Conference

Losing Cincinnati, UCF and Houston to the Big 12 cost the AAC its three most viable members but it added UT-San Antonio, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, UAB and Charlotte from Conference USA, expanding the league to 14 teams. This is a shaky hold on the No. 6 spot because the Sun Belt continues to improve its football presence at a rapid pace. Tulane helped the league image immensely by beating Southern Cal in the Cotton Bowl. The AAC has a presence in major television markets (Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tampa-St. Petersburg, South Florida, Charlotte, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Memphis and Washington DC) but the football doesn’t have high profile teams to land anything better than the current media deal that pays $6.94 million per school.

Of major concern is the loss of a couple of programs to other leagues. Memphis wants the Big 12 and it’s a possibility if the four southern schools in the Pac-12 elect to stay put. SMU is hoping for an invitation to the Pac-12 but would welcome an invitation to join the Big 12 where it could reinstate old rivalries from Southwest Conference days.

7. Mountain West

San Diego State wants to join the Pac-12. UNLV would be happy with an invitation to join either the Pac-12 or the Big 12. Boise State wants to join the Big 12. Air Force thinks it would be a natural fit since it’s just 476 miles as the crow flies from Lubbock and has had a longstanding rivalry with BYU. Fresno State looks in the mirror and does a Nancy Kerrigan (“Whyyyyyy meeeee!”) impersonation because neither the Big 12 or Pac-12 have extended an invitation nor will they.

This is a low profile league that doesn’t move anyone’s television needle. The current media rights deal pays the 12 schools in the league $4 million a year, tip money in the SEC and Big Ten. If the Pac-12 blows up, as everyone expects, Oregon State and Washington State will be looking for a league to join. Neither one will be in a position to be choosy.

8. Sun Belt

The Fun Belt, as it’s known, keeps improving its brand of football, to the point that it may surpass the American and Mountain West within a year or two from a competitive aspect. There isn’t much demand for Fun Belt games on television, in part because the league is in only two major markets (Atlanta and Norfolk-Virginia Beach) and none of the schools are high profile. Currently, the Fun Belt media deal pays $500,000 per school per year which has a lot to do with scheduling paycheck games. What the Fun Belt has to hope for is that its annual champion can be one of the six highest ranked conference champions, therefore earning a berth in the College Football Playoff. What would be a disaster would be for the extinction of a lot of lower ranking bowl games which provide exposure and income.

The trickle-down effect of other conferences expanding could cost a team or two in the future but right now finding a way to generate more than $500,000 per school annually is a bigger concern.

9. Mid-American Conference

There was a time when the MAC was the top non-power conference but that was then, this is now. Now the league lags way behind. Facilities are poor. Good players tend to go south where the weather, facilities and football are much better. There isn’t a big enough footprint outside of Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Illinois so the television market isn’t going to expand. The league is halfway through a media deal that pays each school $800,000 per year and there is no rush to renegotiate. When leagues expand, they don’t try to poach anyone from the MAC although the MAC did try to land Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee from Conference USA when that league lost most of its membership to the American and Sun Belt.

10. Conference USA

This is a 9-team league of Division I stragglers plus former D1AA members Jacksonville State and Sam Houston. In another year, Kennesaw State will be departing D1AA for CUSA. CBS Sports Network will be paying each school $200,000. The AD at every CUSA school has let it be known it will take a significant beating for a paycheck. That’s the future of this conference. Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee would kill to get a call from the Fun Belt.