FLORIDA FOOTBALL: What I See Ahead In Lexington

It may be the Bluegrass of Kentucky but right now I’m seeing green for Napier’s team.

I don’t know exactly why I feel this way, but Saturday in Lexington, Florida has a chance to relaunch its football program into to the proper groove. It’s possible -- and even probable -- that this will happen. In game where the home team is only favored by a field goal, that tells you the wise guys in Vegas think these two opponents are evenly matched.

Go ahead you non-believers, hit me up with that “Sunshine Pumper” tag.

For almost 50 years I’ve been picking Florida football games with my gut. And I’ve been right more times than not.

Once I even wrote about the time I was not able to discern the 1994 Florida-FSU winner and as I was walking out the door of my Ocala home on the way to Tallahassee, I couldn’t come up with one. “Honestly, I feel this game could be a tie,” I said, deciphering it with my magical powers. Final score: Florida 31, FSU 31. AKA “The Choke at Doak.” An infamous day in Gator football history.

So much for Harry Potter magic, although the Gators could use a little of that Saturday at noon in Lexington, too.

Now that they’re finally ranked, an SEC victory on the road might spike the Gators into the Top 20. Why do I feel the odds of these things happening are very good? I've just got that feeling. Now you’ll want some analysis and some analytics, but I don’t have any, unless I steal them from somewhere else.

It may be the Bluegrass of Kentucky but right now I’m seeing green grass ahead for Napier’s team. Here, let me give you a few reasons.

Despite not being able to punch the ball in the end zone against Charlotte, I see a solid running game and excellent quarterback play. I also see the emergence of other offensive players, like young wide receivers who can be penciled in as future contributors or even stars.

I see a solid, reliable field goal kicker who can be counted on in tight games like this one might be.

I see an offensive line that will be back together after missing three starters in a lackluster showing vs. Charlotte. Which is what we saw, along with uninspired play-calling red zone ineptitude.

I see some really good players developing on defense and a young DC who seems like a worthy ringmaster that has their attention. And a head coach who knows how to fix what’s broken.

And let’s get this on the table: Mark Stoops may have finally beaten Florida, but Nick Saban he is not.

There is this matter of seeing Napier’s team perform in synchronization on the road, something that Dan Mullen’s 2021 team could not do the last time Florida went to Kentucky, suffering 15 penalties on the offensive line and a ton of false starts.

“I think that was a part of last year, playing on the road,” Napier said in his Monday presser. ”I think we played at Tennessee early last year on the road, and we procedurally were pretty good. I think, as a result of the conversations about the year prior. So that's in the past. I think we've resolved that for the most part. Obviously it's part of playing on the road in this league. It's going to be challenging. We've got to do a good job with the nonverbal count. I think, for the most part, when we've done that, we've done a decent job.

“But those are some of the challenges that are an issue with going on the road. You see it every week in college football. It's like every game you turn on where -- I mean, look at the teams that have to play here. I'm hopeful that the things that we've done in training camp and the things that we do throughout the week can replicate that for the players. If not, we've got to evaluate our process and think about what we can do better for the players.”

Let’s flash back to some impressive things we saw in the game at The Swamp.

First off, the Ricky Pearsall catch was something to behold, like a Monet or Picasso in motion, pulling down that one-handed pass and latching onto the football as if were a magnet and somehow remaining in control despite being blasted by three Charlotte defenders. I’ve seen some remarkable catches on Steve Spurrier-Florida Field over the past 50 years, but none better.

Mertz on Finebaum Monday

Then the evolving leadership of Graham Mertz. Watching him on the Paul Finebaum Show Monday, Mertz looked poised, confident and competent, giving off a vibe that Gator fans could be proud of. It’s darn near time for some of his detractors to cue up the crow sandwich. Clearly this young man's skill and talent has been disrespected.

"Graham's made our team better," declared Napier. "His work habits, his attitude, his practice approach, the way he prepares, his leadership. I think this guy has done a really good job for our team.

"He's playing at a high level. We need to keep him cleaner. He got hit a few too many times on Saturday, but the ball's going where it's supposed to go. The guy's been really accurate.

And Saturday -- look, I think, if you charted the incompletions, some of those are bad design and some of those are drops, so I think -- or maybe he's throwing it away because of the rush. So he's playing really efficient for us right now."

On the road in Commonwealth Stadium is hardly more daunting than taking snaps in The Shoe in Columbus or The Big House in Ann Arbor. I truly think that if it comes down to Mertz making a play to win against Kentucky, he's good to go. And that's why I think the Gators will come away from Lexington with yet another W -- and if you're keeping score, that would be No. 4.