Florida-Georgia 2023: There's a full moon next Saturday

Time warp Saturday. Take a little stroll down memory lane. The day was November 3, 2002 and the Georgia Bulldogs were riding high, having just blown the doors off a Kentucky team by 28 that the Gators had beaten only because Keiwan Ratliff did a fourth quarter pick six of the Pillsbury Throwboy (Jared Lorenzen) and sealed the win with a pick two (ran back a two-point conversion).

In addition to being unbeaten and ranked fifth in the nation, the Bulldogs had one other reason to be confident. Longtime nemesis Steve Spurrier was coaching in the NFL and Ron Zook was coaching the Gators. Florida was 5-3, it’s last loss a 36-7 destruction at The Swamp by Nick Saban and Alabama. There were rumors floating that UF quarterback Rex Grossman had tendonitis in his right arm. Georgia fans were already adding another notch to their belts and plotting their first national championship since Vince Dooley outbid Southern Cal for Herschel Walker.

What could possibly go wrong?

Well, a couple of things went wrong. First off, Florida’s defense elected to show up unexpectedly. The Gators held Georgia’s vaunted offense to 294 yards. David Greene, who was getting some Heisman love, went 11-29 141 yards. DJ Shockley completed a pass to Florida safety Guss Scott, who took it to the house in the second quarter. Yes, Grossman had a sore arm, so rather than a vertical passing game, the Gators went horizontal. Most of Grossman’s passes went fewer than five yards past the line of scrimmage as he completed 36-46 for 339 yards and two TDs, both to his tight ends. Aaron Walker caught a 5-yarder in the second quarter and the game-winner went 10 yards to Ben Troupe in the fourth quarter.

Florida held the football for 33:19, which factored in a fresh fourth quarter defense when Georgia’s deepest penetration into Florida territory was the UF 47.

Final score: FLORIDA 20, No. 5 Georgia 13

The Gators went on to finish the season 8-5. Georgia won five in a row including a 26-13 thrashing of Florida State in the Sugar Bowl. At 13-1 Georgia finished third nationally behind national champ Ohio State and No. 2 Miami. Most experts agree that had Georgia beaten Florida, the Bulldogs would have played Miami for the national championship.

So here we are 21 years later. When the Gators play Georgia in Jacksonville a week from today, they’ll be unbeaten (7-0), favored by at least two touchdowns and everybody’s favorite to at least make the national championship game for a shot at a third consecutive national title.

Florida doesn’t have a chance. At least that’s what every expert with a keyboard or a mic in his face will tell you, and maybe they’re right. Georgia has depth, experience and the momentum of a 23-game winning streak in its favor. The Bulldogs are brimming with confidence, too. Unlike the stretch from 1990-2010 when Florida went 18-3 against Georgia (Spurrier 11-1, Zooker 2-1, Urban Meyer 5-1), the Bulldogs have owned the Gators in recent years (8-4 since 2011).

Florida is in the second year of Billy Napier’s total team makeover. The Gators went 6-7 last year and thanks to consecutive wins over Vanderbilt and South Carolina, they’re 5-2 heading into this one. Florida is better defensively than last year when Georgia dominated the fourth quarter with two TDs for a 42-20 win. The Gators get off the field on third down (12th nationally, 129th last year) and they give up far fewer chunk plays. Florida’s run defense is 50 yards better than a year ago.

The Florida offense keeps getting better. Graham Mertz completes passes (76.3 percent), doesn’t throw interceptions (two and both were tipped) and he’s as tough as it comes. He’s got a serious deep threat in Ricky Pearsall who now has help from Tre Wilson and Arlis Boardingham. If the O-line can create some creases for Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne and give Mertz a split second to throw, maybe the Gators will show they can move the football against Georgia.

Maybe. Lots of maybes here. Georgia never expected to lose in 2002 when the Bulldogs seriously outmanned the Gators. They won’t be expecting to lose next Saturday either. For all practical purposes, Georgia should win this football game, but it would be wrong to say Florida doesn’t have a chance. It’s Florida-Georgia and strange things have been known to happen.

One other thing. There’s a full moon next Saturday.

Just saying.

The SEC Soothsayer

No. 17 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) at No. 11 Alabama (6-1, 4-0, SEC): For Tennessee, this is the season. Win it and the Vols are still in the hunt to unseat Georgia at the top of the SEC East. Lose it and they can kiss any championship hopes good-bye. Of course, to beat Alabama, formidable in Tuscaloosa no matter who’s playing quarterback, the Vols have to rely on Joe Milton III to play like he actually knows what he’s doing. The expectation of Tennessee beat writers is that this is Milton’s last stand. Play well and he starts next week. Play poorly and lose and next week Josh Heupel turns it over to the QB of the future, freshman Nico Iamaleava. Expect Heupel to dumb it way, way down for Alabama. Run, run and run some more, and let the defense win it. Meanwhile, Alabama needs a win to avoid doing something that hasn’t been done since Nick Saban’s first year on the job in 2007, which is lose two games prior to November 1. There’s an open date next week so this is the last stand. Beat Tennessee and the Crimson Tide goes into the LSU game with only one loss on the agenda overall, zero in the SEC. The Vols aren’t the only ones who wonder which QB will show up, but Jalen Milroe has played well enough to win four straight games and there are signs he’s actually getting better. In Neyland, everything would favor a Tennessee win, but this isn’t Neyland, which might have something to do with Alabama as a 9-point favorite. At Bryant-Denny, it’s Alabama all the way although close enough to make the faithful sweat. The Sayer says sooth!: Alabama 21, Tennessee 10

No. 13 Ole Miss (5-1, 2-1 SEC) at Auburn (3-3, 0-3 SEC): Some folks are calling this a trap game for the Rebels, largely because Ole Miss hasn’t beaten Auburn back-to-back in 71 years. Auburn is a better team at Jordan-Hare but the Tigers have the most inept offense in the SEC and they’re going against a team that is capable of winning any game they play in shootout form. The only chance Auburn has is if Ole Miss leaves its offensive game back in Oxford and somehow Payton Thorne figures out how to complete a pass longer than six inches. Meanwhile, Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss find themselves very much in the SEC West championship hunt. The Rebels are only one game behind and Alabama has back-to-back-to-back with Tennessee, LSU and Kentucky. There may not ever be a time when Ole Miss is this close to grabbing the brass ring than right now, so first and foremost, the Rebels have to show up in beast mode against Auburn. The week off got Ole Miss healed up and there was some tinkering on the offensive line to gear things up now that Quinshon Judkins seems to have awakened from a lengthy slumber. If he’s running anything close to the way he was doing the last half of last year, the Rebels are going to have a chance to do the unthinkable. Of course, that will require a little help from their friends (Alabama opponents). Meanwhile, they’re taking care of business at Jordan-Hare.The Sayer says sooth!: Ole Miss 37, Auburn 20

Army (2-4) at No. 19 LSU (5-2): The goal for LSU is to get the starters some work, then get them off the field injury-free, after which let Garrett Nussmeier get in more work than he’s had all season. LSU could win this game with its second teamers. The Tigers are 31-point favorites and there is a really good chance they cover by halftime. If Jayden Daniels is in the game behind the first 20 minutes it’s only to pad his stats to keep him in the Heisman running. Those two losses are seriously hurting his cause. Daniels has 22 TDPs and four rushing TDs. Figure he’s good for any combo of five Saturday before he departs for good. The Sayer says sooth!: LSU 49, Army 7

South Carolina (2-4, 1-3 SEC) at No. 20 Missouri (6-1, 2-1 SEC): Missouri has replaced Kentucky as the new media darling. Okay, the Tigers played LSU tough and then they beat a Kentucky team that took a 38-point whomping by Georgia. Everybody thinks the Tigers are good, but they still have that 3-game gauntlet of Georgia, Tennessee and Florida. Meanwhile, there is South Carolina, which has the worst defense in all of Division I, but has a quarterback in Spencer Rattler who could heat up any defense in the country if given the time to throw. The Gamecocks played Georgia within 10 in Athens and had North Carolina on the ropes until the pass protection broke down for good late. Mizzou was torched by Jayden Daniels of LSU a couple of weeks ago. Can Rattler heat it up and help the Gamecocks score the upset? The folks in Las Vegas give the Gamecocks a puncher’s chance because the line is only 7.5 points. The Sayer says sooth!: South Carolina 38, Missouri 37

Mississippi State (3-3, 0-3 SEC) at Arkansas (2-5, 0-4 SEC): The one certainty of this game is one of the two teams will avoid an oh-fer the SEC season. Some folks seem to think that the losing head coach will not be gainfully employed at the end of the season, but there is a lot of football to be played and way too soon to be contemplating who stays and who goes. This could actually turn out to be a very entertaining game. If Will Rogers is healthy and Mississippi State can give him some protection, he could light up the Arkansas secondary. If Arkansas can run the ball a little bit, it will take the pressure off KJ Jefferson, who might be the most physically gifted quarterback in the Southeastern Conference. In Starkvegas, Mississippi State would get the nod because a zillion cowbells can seriously affect a visitor with a shaky offensive line. In Fayette-Nam, the odds favor the Hogs. The Sayer says sooth!: Arkansas 31, Mississippi State 28