Gator Football: Billy By The Numbers

Junne 28, 2023

A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:

Pro Football Focus, which is all about the analytics, ranks Florida No. 20 in its preseason football poll, quite a contrast from Lindy’s (32) and Athlon (49). A lot of people will find the PFF rankings quite generous, but a study of how Billy Napier improved Louisiana from year one (2018) to year two (2019) would lead us to believe dramatic improvement for the Gators might not be such a far fetched notion.

Louisiana went from a 7-7 team that won games it shouldn’t have and lost games it should have won to a 10-3 team in 2019. Florida went 6-7 in Napier’s first year on the job. With a break or two, the Gators could have won 10 games. By the same token, a break or two the other way and Florida could have been 3-9. The similarities between the first year at Louisiana and Florida are quite remarkable.

Take a look at a few key statistics to see how the Ragin Cajuns improved in Napiers second year on the job.

Rushing offense 2018: The Ragin Cajuns averaged 218.71 yards per game (22nd nationally), 5.54 per carry (14th nationally). Trey Ragas gained 1,181 yards (8 TDs), Elijah Mitchell 977 (13) and Raymond Calais 754 (7 and 9.31 per carry).

Rushing defense 2018: Louisiana gave up 219.07 yards per game on the ground (112th nationally), 4.96 per carry (104th nationally).

Passing offense 2018: Louisiana averaged 205.6 yards per game (93rd nationally) and 8.3 per attempt, with 27 TDPs, 14 picks. Andre Nunez threw for 2,272 yards, 20 TDPs, 12 picks.

Passing defense 2018: Opponents averaged 216.8 yards per game (55th nationally) and 8.7 per attempt for 22 TDs and only eight picks.

Third down conversions 2018: Louisiana converted 46.96 percent on third downs, which ranked 14thnationally.

Third down defense 2018: Opponents converted 45.21 percent of their third downs, which ranked 113thnationally.

The year two bump

Rushing offense 2019: The Ragin Cajuns averaged 257.43 yards per game, 6.28 per carry, an average increase of 38.72 yards per game. Mitchell ran for 1,147 yards (16 TDs), Calais 886 (6), Ragas 820 (11) and newcomer Chris Smith 334 (4 TDs and 10.44 per carry).

Rushing defense 2019: The Cajuns allowed 174.07 yards (82nd nationally) and 4.47 per carry (83rdnationally), a decrease of 83.36 yards per game.

Passing offense 2019: Louisiana averaged 236.7 yards per game (62nd nationally) and 8.0 per attempt, good for 27 TDPs and only four picks. The same number of touchdown passes as 2018 with 10 fewer picks.

Passing defense 2019: Opponents threw for 197.7 yards per game (21st nationally) and 6.8 per attempt, with only 11 TDPs and 10 picks.

Third down conversions 2019: The Cajuns converted 47.62 percent of their third downs, which ranked 11thnationally.

Third down defense 2019: Opponents converted only 36.17 percent on third down, a decrease of 9.04 percent, 39th nationally, an improvement of 74 places in the rankings.

Billy Donovan used to say another year older doesn’t make you another year better. He was talking basketball, of course, but the same concept applies to football. Just because the Gators return a lot of very good football players from 2022 doesn’t mean they will be better, but look at what the Gators did in 2022. Modest improvement suggests the Gators will be a better team in 2023. What happens if the improvement is more than simply modest?

Florida by the numbers in 2022

Rushing offense: The Gators averaged 200.23 rushing yards (5.51 per carry). The yards per game ranked 24th nationally while the yards per carry ranked seventh. Montrell Johnson Jr. ran for 841 yards (10 touchdowns, 5.43 per carry), Trevor Etienne ran for 719 (6 touchdowns, 6.09 per carry) and Anthony Richardson ran for 654 (9 touchdowns, 6.35 per carry).

Rushing defense: The Gators allowed 175.23 yards per game and 4.49 per carry. Opponents scored 29 touchdowns on the ground. The Gators ranked No. 100 against the run and No. 95 per carry.

Passing offense: Florida averaged 223.8 yards per game and 8.0 per attempt for 18 touchdowns with nine interceptions. The Gators were 79th nationally in yards per game, 37th yards per attempt. Richardson threw for 2,549 yards (8.0 per attempt) and 17 touchdowns with nine interceptions.

Passing defense: The Gators gave up 235.8 yards per game and 7.7 per attempt while allowing 17 touchdowns and picking off nine passes. The Gators were 83rd against the pass and 99th in yards per attempt.

Third down conversions: The Gators were good on third down 40.48 percent of the time, which ranked 50thnationally.

Third down defense: The Gators allowed opponents to convert 49.71 percent of the time on third down, which was 129th out of 131 Division I teams.

An early look at Florida baseball 2024 as of June 28, 2023

Per NCAA rules, each Division I baseball program has 11.7 scholarships that can be distributed among 27 players. Each team is allowed 35 players on the roster, which means a minimum of eight who receive no scholarship aid. It creates a good bit of anxiety for both coaches and players this time of the year. The portal is open so coaches will be looking for help in critical need positions while kids will have to decide between patience and opportunities to play somewhere else. With the second semester of summer school about to open there is very little time to mull things over. Decisions have to be made in a hurry.

In the case of the Florida Gators, two players have exhausted their eligibility, five have already entered the portal and four with eligibility (Wyatt Langford, Brandon Sproat, Hurston Waldrep and Josh Rivera) are sure to be drafted. Infielder Colby Halter is draft-eligible but expected to return, especially if he has a chance to move to shortstop, his natural position.

Here is a rundown of the roster:

Goners: OF Richie Schiekofer (GR); C BT Riopelle (SR); OF Tucker Talbott (SR); SS. Josh Rivera (JR, Draft); P Brandon Sproat (JR, Draft); P Hurston Waldrep (JR, Draft); OF Wyatt Langford (JR, Draft); P Carsten Finnvold (RSO, Transfer); P Anthony Ursitti (RSO, Transfer); C Rene Lastres (RFR, Transfer); C Salvatore Alvarez (FR, Transfer); P Yoel Tejeda Jr. (FR, Transfer)

Returning infielders (4): Colby Halter (JR); Dale Thomas (JR); Deric Fabian (SO); Cade Kurland (FR)

Returning outfielders (6): Tyler Shelnut (JR); Ty Evans (SO); Matt Prevesk (SO); Michael Robertson (RFR); Erik Blair (FR); Max Brown (FR)

Returning catchers (1): Luke Heyman (FR)

Returning pitchers (14): Clete Hartzog (JR); Ryan Slater (RSO); Tyler Nesbitt (RSO); Nick Ficarrotta (RSO); Blake Purnell (RSO); Jac Caglianone (SO); Brandon Neely (SO); Phil Abner (SO); Fisher Jameson (SO); Pierce Coppola (RSO); Sam Sloan (RFR); Cade Fisher (FR); Jake Clemente (FR); Chris Arroyo (FR)

Incoming freshmen (17): P Liam Peterson; P Steve Echavarria; P Luke McNellie; P Christian Rodriguez; P Reilly Witmer; P Grayson Smith; P Frank Menendez; SS Stone Russell; OF Blake Brookins; P Alex Philpott; P/1B Caden McDonald; IF Sammy Mummau; P Jacob Gomberg; P Hunter Jones; SS John Martinez; P Robert Satin; OF Hayden Yost

Transfers (3): INF Colby Shelton (from Alabama); P Kelly Austin (from UCLA); C Tanner Garrison (from Coastal Carolina)

Poll-iticks: Final college baseball polls

(SEC schools bold face)

D1Baseball: 1. LSU 54-17; 2. FLORIDA 54-17; 3. Wake Forest 54-12; 4. Stanford 44-20; 5. TCU 44-24; 6. Virginia 50-15; 7. Tennessee 44-22; 8. Oral Roberts 52-14; 9. Southern Miss 46-20; 10. Alabama 43-21; 11. Indiana State 45-17; 12. Oregon 41-22; 13. South Carolina 42-21; 14. Texas 42-22; 15. Duke 39-24; 16. Arkansas 43-18; 17. Kentucky 40-21; 18. Clemson 44-19; 19. Vanderbilt 42-20; 20. Miami 42-21; 21. Coastal Carolina 42-21; 22. Campbell 46-15; 23. Oregon State 41-20; 24. East Carolina 47-19; 25. Dallas Baptist 47-16

Baseball America: 1. LSU 54-17; 2. FLORIDA 54-17; 3. Wake Forest 54-12; 4. TCU 44-24; 5. Tennessee 44-22; 6. Stanford 44-20; 7. Oral Roberts 52-14; 8. Virginia 50-15; 9. Texas 42-22; 10. Duke 39-24; 11. Indiana State 45-17; 12. Southern Miss 46-20; 13. Oregon 41-22; 14. Vanderbilt 42-20; 15. Clemson 44-19; 16. Arkansas 43-18; 17. South Carolina 42-21; 18. Alabama 43-21; 19. Kentucky 40-21; 20. Coastal Carolina 42-21; 21. Miami 42-21; 22. Campbell 46-15; 23. Oklahoma State 41-20; 24. East Carolina 47-19; 25. Dallas Baptist 47-16

Collegiate Baseball: 1. LSU 54-17; 2. FLORIDA 54-17; 3. Wake Forest 54-12; 4. Texas Christian 44-24; 5. Oral Roberts 52-14; 6. Tennessee 44-22; 7. Virginia 50-15; 8. Stanford 44-20; 9. Indiana State 45-17; 10. Southern Miss 46-20; 11. Texas 42-22; 12. Alabama 43-21; 13. Oregon 41-22; 14. South Carolina 42-21; 15. Duke 39-24; 16. Kentucky 40-21; 17. Clemson 44-19; 18. Arkansas 43-18; 19. Miami 42-21; 20. Vanderbilt 42-20; 21. Coastal Carolina 42-21; 22. Oregon State 41-20; 23. Dallas Baptist 47-16; 24. Iowa 44-16; 25. Campbell 46-15

USA Today/Coaches: 1. LSU 54-17; 2. FLORIDA 54-17; 3. Wake Forest 54-12; 4. Tennessee 44-22; 5. Stanford 44-20; 6. Virginia 50-15; 7. TCU 44-24; 8. Oral Roberts 52-14; 9. Southern Miss 46-20; 10. South Carolina 42-21; 11. Arkansas 43-18; 12. Texas 42-22; 13. Kentucky 40-21; 14. Indiana State 45-17; 15. Vanderbilt 42-20; 16. Duke 39-24; 17. Alabama 43-21; 18. Clemson 44-19; 19. Oregon 41-22; 20. Coastal Carolina 42-21; 21. Miami 42-21; 22. Campbell 46-15; 21. Miami 42-21; 23. East Carolina 47-19; 24. Dallas Baptist 47-16; 25. Oregon State 41-20

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The NCAA just doesn’t get it. After losing nearly every major court case – can anyone recall a landmark case they won? – in the last 30 years, one would think the NCAA would conclude that maybe, just maybe it shouldn’t get seriously involved in things that are almost certain to wind up in court. One would think.

Well, one would be wrong.

In its infinite wisdom, the NCAA, led by none other than Charlie Baker, who once played JV basketball at Harvard, has issued a statement that schools are bound to follow NCAA rules and regulations on NIL and disregard state laws that might run contrary.

In a statement released by NCAA executive vice president Stan Wilcox – yes, the same Stan Wilcox who is the single most inept athletic director in Florida State University history – stated: “The Association has been clear and maintains that schools must adhere to NCAA legislation (policy) when it conflicts with permissive state laws. In other words, if a state law permits certain institutional action and NCAA legislation prohibits the same action, institutions must follow NCAA legislation.”

The NCAA lost the NIL case in the United States Supreme Court. It was Supremes 9, NCAA Dummies 0. The NCAA had no backup plan in case of the inevitable loss and now we have total chaos, to the point the NCAA is wandering the halls of Congress, hat in hand, begging for federal laws since those marvelous academics who run the organization either forgot or were too cowardly to come up with a few rules to keep NIL in check.

The NCAA has no rules and now they’re saying that if they do come up with some, they take precedent over state laws? Can you sense Charlie Baker and the other pencil-necked geeks wasting millions upon millions fighting in court and – as usual – getting creamed.

Henry Ford is credited with saying, “If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always gotten.” The NCAA can’t help itself. It will go to court. It will lose. Big time.

It was Albert Einstein who once said, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” He wasn’t talking about the National Collegiate Athletic Association when he said it. But he could have been.