Napier has faith but will the Gators win more games in 2024?

Billy Napier believes in this Florida team (Photo by Brenden Martin)

“To have faith is to be sure of things we hope for, to be certain of the things we cannot see.” – Hebrews 11:1, Good News Translation

At SEC Media Days in Dallas Wednesday, Billy Napier paraphrased that verse, telling media gathered from every corner of the country, “In Hebrews it says, Faith is the assurance of things hoped for. I’ve got all the faith in the world in the people in our building.”

The Napier critics – and there is no shortage of them after consecutive losing seasons and a season three going against the toughest schedule in the nation – may choose to dwell on the words “things hoped for.” As in, hoping the Gators get enough wins to douse the coals threatening to burst into flames after going 11-14 in seasons one and two.

Critics seem to think Billy is on a rather short leash in 2024, which isn’t true. Now, if 2024 is a bust and Napier hasn’t turned things around by the end of 2025 he might not wish to invest long term into Gainesville real estate. Make no mistake about it, however, the people who write and sign the checks at the University of Florida are determined to give Billy Napier the time he needs to solidify the football program’s foundation, which has eroded considerably since Urban Meyer retired after the 2010 season. In the l3 years since Urban walked away, the Gators are 98-66, the 39th best record in college football. From 1990-2010, the Gators were 210-57-1, the best record in all of college football.

Expectations at UF are the Gators of 1990-2010, not the ones who have endured five losing seasons in the last 13 years. To get back to that point where you could pencil Florida in for a minimum of 9-10 wins and a top ten ranking every year, the revolving door of coaches has to stop. Steve Spurrier coached from 1990-2001 and Meyer from 2005-10, combining for 187 wins and only 37 losses (1 tie), eight Southeastern Conference championships and three national titles.

The other five coaches – Ron Zook (2002-04), Will Muschamp (2011-14),  Jim McElwain (2015-17), Dan Mullen (2018-21) and Napier (2022-present) – have gone a combined 121-81without a single SEC or national championship.

Obviously, Florida fans are getting restless, but the administration is determined to stop the revolving door of coaches. So, Napier is reasonably secure heading into 2024. The reason he has faith that this will be the year when the Gators chart a new path has everything to do with leadership and experience.

“I like our team,” Napier said Wednesday. “I believe in our team. When people ask me why, it's about experience. It's about production. We've got 463 starts on this team, 17 starters returning. We've got 41,000 snaps coming back this year, and we're fourth in our league in returning production. We've got competitive depth for the first time.”

A year ago, the Gators were one of the least experienced teams not just in the Southeastern Conference but in the entire country. Now, a year older doesn’t necessarily make you a year better, but when it comes to football, there is no substitute for experience. Basketball is a 31-game regular season with a post season that can be 10 or more games counting the conference and NCAA tournaments. You can scrimmage every single day. Baseball plays a 55-game regular season and the team that wins the NCAA title often plays 70 or so games. Baseball allows exhibition games in the fall and players can get in hundreds of practices to hone their skills.

No such luck with football. There are 12 games in the fall and with the expanded playoff that goes from four to 12 teams this year, the two teams that play for the national championship will play 17 games. A team gets 20 practices in August leading up to the season and 15 in the spring. During the season teams are limited to 20 hours of practice a week and most coaches only hit once a week. There are only a few opportunities each year to move past youthful mistakes and transform into a confident been there, done that player.

A year ago, the kids took their lumps. A year later, the kids who looked dazed and confused in 2023 will have a chance to show just how much they have matured in a year and they will be supplemented by a transfer portal class that might be one of the most underrated in all the country plus a group of talented freshmen, many of whom will have a chance to contribute right away.

It is all part of a rebuilding process that has taken awhile longer than perhaps even Napier expected when he left Louisiana for the UF job in December of 2021. There were far too many holes in the 2022 roster and while there were fewer holes to fill in 2023, the Gators still had to rely on too many inexperienced kids who had to play against grown men like the ones they faced against Georgia in Jacksonville.

More experience has Napier far more confident in the team he will put on the field this season than he was in either 2022 or 2023.

“We're in year three, our roster has stabilized,” he said. “We've got credible leadership at the player level. The discipline and accountability of this team is at an all-time high, and I think some of the adjustments that we made in the off-season have proved to be effective.”

Among the adjustments was gutting his defensive staff to bring in Gerald Chatman from Tulane to coach the line, Ron Roberts from Auburn to be the co-defensive coordinator and inside linebackers coach, and Will Harris from the Los Angeles Chargers to coach the secondary. With the NCAA rules about the size of coaching staff thrown out the window, Napier can put to work on the field many from his army of analysts such as third-year quarterbacks analyst Ryan O’Hara, former Central Michigan head coach and long time offensive guru Dan Enos and special teams demon Joe Houston, who spent the last four years working for Bill Belichick with the New England Patriots.

There is also a new strength and conditioning coordinator. Tyler Myles, who Napier says has changed the complete approach to training, is credited with 500 pounds of new lean muscle on the team and 500 pounds of lost weight.

“Our team looks different,” Napier said. “All the numbers, the metrics, the speeds, the strength improvement, not to mention the culture.”

It will be a significant achievement if the Gators look the part of muscular, grown men when they take the field. That hasn’t happened in awhile. There is that old saying looks like Tarzan, game like Jane. We can only hope the Gators not only look but play like Tarzan, but looking like grown men is a good place to start.

Another reason Napier believes this team will be better is because of improved leadership. He pointed to a couple of Saturdays in the offseason and the Fourth of July as living proof that he has leaders who teammates are more than willing to follow.

“Go back to January, I'm taking the boys to the office,” Napier said. “Sammy and Charlie are with me. It's Saturday, it's January, it's February, we walk around the corner, we've got 70 guys in the weight room on a Saturday doing extra work. I used to play for an old coach that said champions do extra. I'm going to tell you, this group, that has continued. It's been consistent … Just a few weeks ago, Fourth of July, we have 53 guys that are in there on Saturday doing extra work.”

There is that matter of the schedule, toughest in the nation per every credible analyst in the country. Of the 12 teams the Gators play, 11 are members of the four power conferences and 10 played in bowl games. Florida’s 11 Division I opponents went a combined 100-45 including 13-1 records by Georgia and Florida State, 12-2 by Texas, 11-2 by Ole Miss and 10-3 by LSU.

The schedule was tough last year, tough the year before, also. Eight Southeastern Conference games plus Miami, FSU and UCF. There is no room to breathe. Every weekend will have somewhat of a playoff feel to it.

For the past two seasons, the Gators have made a habit of playing both the good teams and the bad teams on their schedule tough. They have also made a habit of almost inventing ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Far too many winnable games have turned into losses because of a botched play here or a missed assignment there.

Napier seems to think that perhaps this year’s team has turned the page on the close call losses, which has plenty to do with his Biblical analogy. For the Gators to take the next step and turn missed opportunities into enough wins to calm anxious masses of UF fans, it will take a shared faith by his entire coaching staff and roster of players. Faith that is the confidence that wins hoped for in the past will turn into tangible wins on the field in 2024.