Pre-Game Analysis: Florida Gators (3-1, 1-0) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (4-0, 1-0)

Can Billy Napier match Mark Stoops fire and leave Lexington with a win?

Photo Chris Spears

By Loren Meadows, GatorBaitMedia.com, Football Analyst

The Florida Gators will travel to Lexington Saturday to play the Kentucky Wildcats in a game which is now close to even in the betting line. The noon kickoff will be the first day game in the series since 2020. Florida’s last trip to Lexington in 2021 was marred in multiple procedural penalties that had a huge impact on the outcome of the game. The Gators fell to Kentucky in 2022, losing back to back games in the series for the first time since the 1976 and 1977 seasons. Last year’s contest l was a sloppy slugfest with both teams combining for three turnovers -- the biggest being an ill-advised throw by Anthony Richardson that Kentucky defensive back Keidron Smith returned 65 yards for what would be the deciding score.

With Richardson and (Kentucky quarterback) Will Levis off to the NFL the focus is now on transfers Florida’s Graham Mertz and Kentucky’s Devin Leary (NC state) who now lead their respective teams. Mertz has been as efficient as any quarterback in the SEC, while Leary has been up and down in his first year under new (for the second time) offensive coordinator Liam Cohen.

With both defenses playing well early in the season this could mirror the Tennessee game --the quarterback that plays the best could rule the day. The Gators have an opportunity for a second signature win in the Billy Napier era while Kentucky will look to take its third straight win in this series,

Kentucky Offense:

Key Players: #13 QB Devin Leary (6-1, 217, Sr.), #1 RB Ray Davis (5-10,216, Sr.), #4 RB JuTahn McClain (5-9, 198, Sr.), #6 WR Dane Key (6-3, 195, So.) #7 WR Barrion Brown (6-1, 166, So.), #9 WR Tayvion Robinson (5-11, 194, R-Sr.), #85 TE Jordan Dingle (6-4, 238, So.)

Quarterback Devin Leary arrived in Lexington from North Carolina State as the Wildcats' best option at quarterback since Andre Woodson. So far, the results have been mixed as Leary has thrown for nine touchdowns against five interceptions. Regardless of who is behind center Kentucky has made its living on the running game under Mike Stoops. Stoops and company hang their hat on a physical running game highlighted by physical play up front and a diverse complement of running backs. The offensive line is in the process of a remodel with top offensive lineman Kenneth Horsey doubtful for the game, but the Wildcats have two home run type backs with Vanderbilt transfer Ray Davis and Jutahn McClain. Davis Vanderbilt in rushing a year ago and found success against the Gators last season rushing for 122 yards on 30 carries. McClain has the ability to go the distance and opened the scoring against Vanderbilt with a 56-yard TD run.

Where the offense stands out for Kentucky is with a trio of receivers that could be the best group in school history. Dane Key, Barrion Brown and Tayvion Robinson offer Leary three targets that are a threat at all three levels in the passing game. Key is a big body with a large catch radius while Brown and Robinson are excellent route runners with excellent run after the catch ability. Robinson offers versatility as a ball carrier and both he and Brown can be effective in the return game. This is a unit with three legitimate athletes that will certainly play on Sundays.

Offensively Kentucky could possibly be the toughest test to date for the Gators. Kentucky will employ a number of different formations to force the Gators to keep coverage and fronts basic and give Leary a clear picture of the Gator defense. The Florida secondary faced a tough task against the passing game of Tennessee two weeks ago and Kentucky could be a much taller order. It would not be a total surprise if Kentucky would utilize the same strategy as Utah and go for the gut punch with a deep shot right from the start. Unlike Joe Milton, Leary is a more stationary target and this is where the Florida defense could flourish. If Davis and McClain can be kept in check early Florida could get exotic with its pass rush and force Leary to throw his sixth interception after only throwing five total for North Carolina State in 2022.

Kentucky Defense:

Key Players: #0 DL Deone Walker (6-6, 348, So.), #34 LB Trevin Wallace (6-2, 241, Jr.) #13 LB JJ Weaver (6-5, 244, Sr.), #54 LB D’Eryk Jackson (6-1, 245, Sr.), #25 DB Jordan Lovett

(6-2, 195, So.), #31 DB Maxwell Hairston (6-1, 181, So.) #4 Jalen Geiger (6-1, 199, Sr.)

The Kentucky defense is a clear representation of what Kentucky has been under Mark Stoops and defensive coordinator Brad Smith. The Kentucky defense has been very solid particularly against the run where they currently lead the SEC allowing just 77 yards per game. Arguably the most talented player on the entire roster could be defensive tackle Deone Walker, a Freshman All-American who is an NFL-caliber prospect. At linebacker the Wildcats lost stalwarts Deandre Square and Jaquez Jones but so far Trevin Wallace and returning starter D’Eryk Jackson have been more than serviceable. At outside linebacker JJ Weaver should be a household name to Gator fans as he has been a key figure in the last three games against the Gators. Weaver was the Wildcats leading tackler in the game a year ago with a game-high nine tackles.

The Wildcats return only one full-time starter in a secondary that has been up and down to start the season. The Wildcats currently rank 94th nationally in pass defense but average at least one interception in every game this season. Cornerback Maxwell Hairston emerged last week as his two interception (one for a touchdown) performance against Vanderbilt earned him both SEC Defensive and Bronco Nagurski Player of the Week honors. Along with Hairston, free safety Jordan Lovett returns in the secondary as well as the steady Jalen Geiger who left last year’s game on the first series with a season-ending knee injury. Geiger has begun to ease back into his role and could help steady a secondary that is continuing to round into form.

This matchup is another that will be played in a phone booth. Florida wants to control the clock and play on Kentucky’s side of the line scrimmage. Kentucky’s defensive front lives off their ability to return the favor. With the return of Florida center Kingsley Eguakun and right guard Micah Mazzccua the Gators will have a the same unit that was able to rush for over 180 yards against a solid Tennessee front. Eguakun was a clear difference maker in that game and his matchup with both Walker and nose guard Josaih Hayes could prove to be the difference.

The Skinny: The. Gators have been anything but road warriors under Billy Napier. In fact when they travel the Gators have looked like a totally different team. The SEC is a two-prong league. Teams win when they are solid in the trenches and when they can load up their packs, go on the road and take care of business in some of college football’s most hostile environments. While Saturday's game takes place in the middle of the day, that is plenty of time for the bourbon to flow freely in the Bluegrass State. It will still be loud. The monkey has long been off the Wildcats back when it comes to the Gators and this is a game Kentucky has circled as a win for the last 4 years. The Gators however continue to play the complimentary football that Coach Billy Napier consistently preaches and they have a signal caller that plays the type of football that lends itself to solid results at home or on the road. This will be by far the best defensive front the Wildcats have faced this year and Cam Jackson, Caleb Banks, Princley Umanmielen and company continue to improve under Austin Armstrong. Without its best lineman the “Great Blue Wall” is not the same. Mark Stoops has been able to motivate his team to match and surpass the intensity of the Gators in the past two contest. Can Coach Napier match his fire? The answer is yes. Florida sticks to the script. The Gators run the ball, play good defense, and go home.

Prediction: Florida Gators 24 Kentucky Wildcats 20