Pre-Game Analysis: Florida Gators v. Tennessee Volunteers

The Florida Gators under second-year head coach Billy Napier find themselves at a crossroads that could define not only the rest of the 2023 but possibly define seasons to come.

By Loren Meadows, GatorBairMedia.com, Football Analyst

Billy Napier - Photo Credit Chris Spears

The Florida Gators under second-year head coach Billy Napier find themselves at a crossroads that could define not only the rest of the 2023 but possibly define seasons to come. While Billy Napier’s “organization” has flourished in terms of infrastructure, recruiting, and public relations, the Gators have found themselves on the short end of the stick when it comes to what historically have been some of Florida’s greatest games. In 2022 Napier was the first Gator first year coach to lose to all four rivals in a season. One of those losses was a 38-33 loss to the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville. While the Gators managed to press the game until its last play there were several head-scratching decisions made by both players and coaches alike (particularly coaches) that left many to question the “organization’s” readiness to play bigtime football in big time games.

With a 6-7 finish in 2022 and the aforementioned 0-4 record against their rivals the Napier led Gators welcome a Tennessee team that has not one in Gainesville since 2003 and seem to be dealing with their own issues after a lackluster showing against Austin Peay a week ago. The Volunteers held a private (but made public), “players only” meeting to clear the air as they prepared for the Gators while Coach Napier and crew cleared the stench of the Salt Lake in dominating McNeese. What is now before us is what will Florida and Tennessee look like Saturday night? Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has registered enough notches on the belt to keep the Volunteer faithful happy and engaged for the next twelve weeks. Coach Napier however is a guy that everyone likes while the on-field product has left a fragrance of inconsistency. Is this the week the Gators put it all together and plant a foot hold back in the SEC hierarchy or will Tennessee grab a generational win in The Swamp and takedown the Gators in consecutive years for the first time since 2004.

Tennessee Offense:

Key Players: #7 QB Joe Milton III (6-5, 235, R-Sr.), #0 RB Jaylen Wright (5-11, 210, Jr.), #2 RB Jabari Small (5-11, 213, Sr.), #9 WR Ramel Keyton (6-3, 197 Sr.), #10 WR Squirrel White (5-10, 165, So.), #15 WR Bru McCoy (6-3, 220, R-Sr.), #70 OL Andrej Karic (6-6, 310, Jr.), #74 OL John Campbell Jr. (6-5, 320, R-Sr.), #63 OL Cooper Mays (6-3, 305, Sr.)

The Tennessee offense runs at breakneck speed averaging 76 offensive plays which is 25th nationally. The Volunteers force you to cover and defend all 53 1/3 of the football field in an attempt to stress the eye discipline and width of the defense. While flashy, the spread offense features tenants of the read option and power running game combined with a quick screens and multiple formations that threaten the ability of the defensive secondary to provide adequate run support. At the center of all the attention has been 6th year senior Joe Milton III. The Pahokee, FL native has garnered attention for his physical stature and equally impressive arm strength. Milton has been consistent but not stellar in his return to the starting lineup and has yet to throw an interception this season. While there may be doubts about his ability as a passer Florida will definitely have to account for Milton’s ability to stress the defense with his legs. Milton struggled in his first trip to The Swamp in 2021 and it will be key for the Gators to generate pressure with multiple looks to confuse Milton.

The running game is bolstered by the two head monster of Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright. Almost interchangeable Small and Wright have an equal amount of touches with Wright averaging over nine yards per carry. At receiver the Volunteers are dealing with the loss of both Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt to the NFL. The most talented of the group Bru McCoy is currently third on the team in receptions but torched the Gators a year ago with 5 catches for 102 yards and a touchdown. In the slot the speedy Squirrel White is effective as both a receiver and returner with a sub-11 and sub-22 second speed in the 100- and 200-yard dashes respectfully. The Tennessee offensive line has been retooled losing two starters to the NFL. Transfer’s Andrej Karic (Texas) and John Campbell Jr. (Miami) now man the left side of the offensive line while Cooper Mays should make his 2023 debut returning from a minor procedure during the summer.

The Gators have been stout against the run so far this season giving up 75.5 yards per game. If Florida can limit production on early downs forcing Milton to throw through tight windows could be key for the Gator defense.

Florida Edge Rusher Tj Searcy - Photo Credit Chris Spears

Tennessee Defense:

Key Players: #6 LB Aaron Beasley (6-1, 225, Sr.), #9 DE Tyler Baron (6-5, 260, Sr.), #21 DT Omari Thomas (6-4, 320, Sr.), #DE James Pearce Jr. (6-5, 242, So.), #2 S Jaylen McCullough (6-0, 206, Sr.), #1 CB Gabe-Juedy Lally (6-2, 190 R-Sr)

A year ago the Tennessee run defense was second in the SEC and fifth in third down defense. On the flip side the Volunteers ranked 12 in the SEC in pass defense. Gabe Jeudy-Lally (BYU) was added through the transfer portal and Jaylen McCullough returns as to steady the back end. The defensive front seven is experienced and stout with Aaron Beasley as the leading tackler of the unit. The defensive line has already registered 11 sacks in two games with Baron and Pearce registering three each. Florida will have to pick its spots in the run game as that is where the unit has found its mark. Florida seemed to find success offensively in the screen game a week ago and could commit to that early to force the Tennessee front to chase the Gators. Omari Thomas is a solid SEC defender but the return of Kingsley Eguakun should help the Gators with the inside zone play. The matchup between Eguakun and Thomas could be an interesting matchup for those who like the action in the trenches. Tennessee like the Gators have the ability to diversify based upon the looks the get from the opposing offense. The cat and mouse game between Coach Napier and Tennessee defensive coordinator Tim Banks will be key as the Gators did gain almost 600 yards of total offense last year despite the loss.

Florida Running Back Montreal Johnson Jr. - Photo Chris Spears

The Skinny: This Florida-Tennessee. “FLORIDA-TENNESSEE!!!” This rivalry defined the SEC in the 90’s and college football needs it to get back to that again. Coach Billy Napier has preached the virtues of composure, poise, attention to detail, character, and leadership. All of the things the Gators represented when the rivalry was at its height. It is time that the on the field product matches the narrative. Tennessee is a program that feels they have surpassed the Gators in the race to rebuild after an 11-wins season and an Orange Bowl win a year ago. The cast of characters however is a little different and the place where the match takes place is not Knoxville. The Gators still possess the air of invincibility when the volunteers visit The Swamp and it will be that air plus the humidity that get Coach Napier his first signature SEC win. Joe Milton III unfortunately has never quite lived up to the expectations that made him a highly touted recruit from “The Muck” and a loss Saturday won’t help. The better quarterback wins the day Saturday. Mertz passes for two, Austin Armstrong is the true MVP as the Gators pickoff Milton twice on their way to the upset.

Prediction: Florida Gators 27 Tennessee Volunteers 21