Prediction: UF will finish 3rd in the SEC East

The media came out with their preseason ballots in Nashville this past week and, as expected, everyone has the Southeastern Conference coming down to an Alabama-Georgia showdown to win the championship. As expected, the media had the Florida Gators way down the pack at fifth in the SEC East. Georgia is clearly head and shoulders above everyone else in the East, but are Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky that much better than Florida? Over in the West, it’s the Nick Saban Revenge Tour with everyone else hoping to finish second.

SEC Media predictions

SEC East: 1. Georgia; 2. Tennessee; 3. South Carolina; 4. Kentucky; 5. FLORIDA; 6. Missouri; 7. Vanderbilt

SEC West: 1. Alabama; 2. LSU; 3. Texas A&M; 4. Ole Miss; 5. Arkansas; 6. Auburn; 7. Mississippi State.

Now, here are my thoughts team-by-team.

East

1. Georgia

The schedule: 9/2 UT-Martin; 9/9 Ball State; 9/16 South Carolina; 9/23 UAB; 9/30 at Auburn; 10/7 Kentucky; 10/14 at Vanderbilt; 10/28 FLORIDA in Jacksonville; 11/4 Missouri; 11/11 Ole Miss; 11/18 at Tennessee; 11/25 at Georgia Tech

Georgia handled the pressure of repeating quite well last year. The pressure will be double this year as the Bulldogs try to make it three in a row. The schedule is largely cupcake but even if the Bulldogs played a decent schedule, they’ve got the talent and depth to handle it. A waltz through September will let Carson Beck get his feet wet at QB. Florida in Jacksonville could be tougher than expected. Ole Miss the week before the roadie to Tennessee could cause problems the next week in Knoxville. Prediction: Georgia won’t lose a game until it meets Alabama for the SEC championship.

2. Tennessee

First month: 9/2 Virginia in Nashville; 9/9 Austin Peay; 9/16 at FLORIDA; 9/23 UT-San Antonio; 9/30 South Carolina; 10/14 Texas A&M; 10/21 at Alabama; 10/28 at Kentucky; 11/4 UConn; 11/11 at Missouri; 11/18 Georgia; 11/25 Vanderbilt

We will get our first chance to see how good the Vols are going to be September 16 in Gainesville, where they haven’t won since Ron Zook’s second year on the job in 2003. Strange things happen in Gainesville (see the Heave to Cleve in 2017). If Joe Milton doesn’t get off to (a) a great start and (b) beats Florida and South Carolina in the month of September, then UT fans will be (c) screaming for freshman Nico Iamaleava to start against the Aggies on October 14. The Vols sneaked up everyone last year. This year, the pressure is on. Prediction: Iamaleava will be the starting QB by mid-October. This is an 8-4 team, 9-3 at best.

3. FLORIDA

First month: 8/31 at Utah; 9/9 McNeese State; 9/16 Tennessee; 9/23 Charlotte; 9/30 at Kentucky; 10/7 Vanderbilt; 10/14 at South Carolina; 10/28 Georgia in Jacksonville; 11/4 Arkansas; 11/11 at LSU; 11/18 at Missouri; 11/25 Florida State

It’s no secret what the Gators are going to do this year. They’re going to line up, knock people off the ball and control the clock. As good as the offensive line was last year, it is going to be better this year. Count on it. As bad as the defense was last year, it can’t get any worse. So, here’s the Florida formula that Billy Napier will use to win eight games in season two. Grind away with the running game, throw over the top when the box is loaded and when the defense goes on the field, bring every exotic blitz you can think of to create havoc. Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne will be as good a 1-2 running back punch as there is in the country and Teradja Mitchell will show everyone on defense why he was a captain at Ohio State last year. Prediction: This is a 7-8 win team.

4. Kentucky

First month: 9/2 Ball State; 9/9 Eastern Kentucky; 9/16 Akron; 9/23 at Vanderbilt; 9/30 FLORIDA; 10/7 at Georgia; 10/14 Missouri; 10/28 Tennessee; 11/4 at Mississippi State; 11/11 Alabama; 11/18 at South Carolina; 11/25 Louisville

Take a look at those first four games and you see why Kentucky was so adamantly opposed to a 9-game SEC schedule. UK should be two-thirds of the way to bowl eligibility before Florida comes to town. Do you understand now why Mark Stoops stays at UK even though every single year he can leave for jobs where he could actually win a championship? When you can go 6-6 every year and you won’t get fired, you stay put. Prediction: After a 4-0 start, the Wildcats will go 3-5 the rest of the way.

5. South Carolina

First month: 9/2 North Carolina in Charlotte; 9/9 Furman; 9/16 at Georgia; 9/23 Mississippi State; 9/30 at Tennessee; 10/14 FLORIDA; 10/21 at Missouri; 10/28 at Texas A&M; 11/4 Jacksonville State; 11/11 Vanderbilt; 11/18 Kentucky; 11/25 Clemson

Games are won in the trenches in the Southeastern Conference and that’s where South Carolina is going to struggle. Spencer Rattler has an NFL arm but he’ll have a sieve protecting him. The D-line couldn’t stop the run last year. It won’t stop anybody this year either. Game one against North Carolina and game three at Georgia are going to define the season for the Gamecocks. Prediction: Anything better than a 6-6 season will have Shane Beamer in the hunt for SEC coach of the year.

6. Missouri

First month: 9/2 South Dakota; 9/9 Middle Tennessee; 9/16 Kansas State; 9/23 Memphis in St. Louis; 9/30 at Vanderbilt; 10/7 LSU; 10/14 at Kentucky; 10/21 South Carolina; 11/4 at Georgia; 11/11 Tennessee; 11/18 FLORIDA; 11/25 at Arkansas

The defense should be very, very good if Eli Drinkwitz can keep everybody healthy because the depth behind the starters is iffy. Over on the offensive side of the football, the skill people are good but there are way too many questions in the trenches. The November schedule is absolutely brutal, too. Prediction: This is a 4-win team but five is possible if the Tigers can spring an upset along the way. Sixth in the East.

7. Vanderbilt

First month: 8/26 Hawaii; 9/2 Alabama A&M; 9/9 Wake Forest; 9/16 at UNLV; 9/23 Kentucky; 9/30 Missouri; 10/7 at FLORIDA; 10/14 Georgia; 10/28 at Ole Miss; 11/4 Auburn; 11/11 South Carolina; 11/25 Tennessee

Vanderbilt will be a better football team than last season because Clark Lea is a very good football coach. The record won’t show the progress, however. At Vandy, only those who take mind-altering drugs envision championships. Getting to six wins and going to a bowl game in an exotic locale such as Shreveport or Birmingham? That can be done. Just not this year. Vanderbilt will be a tough out for most everyone on the schedule. Prediction: A 4-8 record is likely. Clark Lea could be coach of the year if he wins five. Seventh in the East.

West

1. Alabama

First month: 9/2 Middle Tennessee; 9/9 Texas; 9/16 at South Florida; 9/23 Ole Miss; 9/30 at Mississippi State; 10/7 at Texas A&M; 10/14 Arkansas; 10/21 Tennessee; 11/4 LSU; 11/11 at Kentucky; 11/18 Chattanooga; 11/25 at Auburn

Nick Saban hears all those “experts” saying his career has peaked all because (a) Georgia has won the last two national championships and (b) he goes into the fall without an established starting quarterback. The defense will be nasty. The O-line will be dominant. There are plenty of good running backs and the wide receivers will be better than anyone expected. Tennessee and LSU are at home. Revenge games. Prediction: Reports of Nick Saban’s demise are greatly exaggerated. The Revenge Tour will be a 12-0 regular season and a win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

2. LSU

First month: 9/3 Florida State in Orlando; 9/9 Grambling; 9/16 Mississippi State; 9/23 Arkansas; 9/30 Ole Miss; 10/7 at Missouri; 10/14 Auburn; 10/21 Army; 11/4 at Alabama; 11/11 FLORIDA; 11/18 Georgia State; 11/25 Texas A&M

That first game against Florida State will tell a lot about LSU. If the Tigers drop the hammer on FSU, they will be favored by double digits to win every game leading up to that November 4 showdown in Tuscaloosa against Alabama. Brian Kelly knows the Tigers have to do a better job of protecting QB Jayden Daniels this year (45 sacks allowed in 2022) and someone other than Daniels has to be able to run the football. Over on the defensive side they’ve got to get off the field better on third down. Harold Perkins Jr. is being hyped as the greatest pass rusher since Derrick Thomas used to terrorize QBs in the SEC. He needs to live up to the hype for LSU to have a chance to win the SEC West for a second straight year. Prediction: Kim Mulkey and Jay Johnson won national championships in their second years at LSU. The pressure is on Brian Kelly. A 10-2 regular season. Close but no cigar.

3. Ole Miss

First month: 9/2 Mercer; 9/9 at Tulane; 9/16 Georgia Tech; 9/23 at Alabama; 9/30 LSU; 10/7 Arkansas; 10/21 at Auburn; 10/28 Vanderbilt; 11/4 Texas A&M; 11/11 at Georgia; 11/18 Louisiana-Monroe; 11/23 at Mississippi State

This is the team absolutely NOBODY wants to play. Lane Kiffin has skill people running out the wazzoo including the best running back in the country in Quinshon Judkins. He’s got a beastly offensive line that gave up only 16 sacks last year while paving the way for 256 yards a game on the ground. He’s got two quarterbacks who could start for at least 10 of the 14 SEC teams. What scares everyone isn’t the offense, however. You know what you’re facing there. What scares everyone is the defense. What if the Rebels can actually get some stops? Yikes. Prediction: The Rebels will win at least eight games, nine if they can get a few defensive stops. They’re going to scare the hell out of everybody they play.

4. Texas A&M

First month: 9/2 New Mexico; 9/9 at Miami; 9/16 Louisiana-Monroe; 9/23 Auburn; 9/30 Arkansas in Arlington, TX; 10/7 Alabama; 10/14 at Tennessee; 10/28 South Carolina; 11/4 at Ole Miss; 11/11 Mississippi State; 11/18 Abilene Christian; 11/25 at LSU

From a pure talent standpoint, the Aggies have a roster capable of winning championships, but there are way too many questions starting with Jimbo Fisher’s relationship with offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. If they can get along, the Aggies might be very, very good. After all, they were so close last year when five of their seven losses were by six or fewer points. Will Petrino make enough of a difference that those close losses become wins? Or will this wind up in divorce court? If it does, then Jimbo will get a rather hefty alimony settlement himself at the end of the year. Back-to-back Arkansas and Alabama will tell us plenty. Prediction: The Aggies will go 8-4, Petrino will get fired and Jimbo will survive for one more year by the skin of his teeth.

5. Auburn

First month: 9/2 UMass; 9/9 at California; 9/16 Samford; 9/23 at Texas A&M; 9/30 Georgia; 10/14 at LSU; 10/21 Ole Miss; 10/28 Mississippi State; 11/4 at Vanderbilt; 11/11 at Arkansas; 11/18 New Mexico State; 11/25 Alabama

Hugh Freeze is back, his sins cleansed at Liberty. All the things that got him in trouble with the NCAA at Ole Miss are now legal and Auburn has far deeper pockets than Ole Miss. So, the long term future looks very good for a coach who’s the only currently active coach in the country with back-to-back wins over Nick Saban. The immediate future? Well, it may take awhile for Hugh to get the Tigers elevated to a championship level, but one thing you can count on: He will make it interesting in the interim and that includes this season. That stretch of Texas A&M< Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss won’t do Auburn any favors. Prediction: There are at least six wins on this schedule, maybe seven.

6. Arkansas

First month: 9/2 Western Carolina in Little Rock; 9/9 Kent State; 9/16 BYU; 9/23 at LSU; 9/30 Texas A&M in Arlington, TX; 10/7 at Ole Miss; 10/14 at Alabama; 10/21 Mississippi State; 11/4 at FLORIDA; 11/11 Auburn; 11/18 Florida International; 11/25 at Missouri

K.J. Jefferson might be the best quarterback in the SEC and Raheim Sanders ranks right there with Quinshon Judkins as the best running back. Arkansas is going to score points this year, but the Hogs are like Ole Miss in this respect: Can they actually stop anyone else from scoring? And, who’s going to get to opposing QBs now that all their best pass rushers have graduated? There is a new offensive coordinator (Dan Enos) and a new defensive coordinator (Travis Williams). They also have a 4-game gauntlet of LSU, Texas A&M Ole Miss and Alabama that could sink the season before the midway point. Prediction: The Hogs will struggle to win six games. Five is more likely.

7. Mississippi State

First month: 9/2 Southeastern Louisiana; 9/9 Arizona; 9/16 LSU; 9/23 at South Carolina; 9/30 Alabama; 10/7 Western Carolina; 10/21 at Arkansas; 10/28 at Auburn; 11/4 Kentucky; 11/11 at Texas A&M; 11/18 Southern Miss; 11/23 Ole Miss

Mike Leach is gone, replaced by Zach Arnett, a coach who everyone believes has a bright future, but it takes someone really special to win at Mississippi State. Dan Mullen and Leach did it because they could outscheme people with their offenses. Arnett is a defensive coach and he’s turning Mississippi State conventional on offense. We’ll see how that works. He’s got a stud QB in Will Rogers, but Rogers was a perfect Air Raid fit. Will he be as good in a conventional offense? Prediction: Four wins at the most. Three is more likely.