SEC Media Days: The Gators Got no Respect

Perhaps they should be called the Dangerfields, because just like the late, great Rodney Dangerfield, the Florida Gators got no respect from media that gathered in Dallas from across the southeast and the nation last week. When SEC Media Days finished up and the ballots were counted, Florida was predicted to finish 12th in the 16-team league. From the standpoint of media, expectations for Florida are the lowest they’ve been since Charley Pell’s first year on the job in 1979. The Gators lived up to their lack of hype by finishing 0-10-1. This Florida team isn’t going to go winless even against the toughest schedule in the country, but they aren’t going to finish 12th in the SEC, either.

Here is my predicted order of finish followed by the media predictions and my commentary:

1. Texas

2. Georgia

3. Ole Miss

4. Alabama

5. Missouri

6. LSU

7. Tennessee

8. FLORIDA

9. Oklahoma

10. Auburn

11. Kentucky

12. Texas A&M

13. South Carolina

14. Arkansas

15. Mississippi State

16. Vanderbilt

The SEC Media Predicted Order of Finish

Carson Beck (15) will lead a Georgia offense that returns nine starters (Photo by Chris Spears)

1. Georgia: Georgia is the media’s favorite to hoist both SEC and national trophies high, largely due to nine returning starters on offense including QB Carson Beck. The Bulldogs should score points and they will be very good defensively, but there is that teensy matter of the schedule. Georgia hasn’t won a road game against a top 10 ranked opponent since 12th-ranked Kentucky in Lexington in 2018. This year Georgia gets Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss on the road and all three should be ranked in the top five.  

Prediction: Georgia is going to make the College Football Playoff but the Bulldogs won’t have the advantage of the usual easy SEC road schedule. Don’t be the least bit surprised with two or three regular season losses. The SEC is that tough this year.

2. Texas: The Longhorns made the College Football Playoff and were within six points of making it to the championship game so expectations are through the roof. Four starters on the O-line, QB Quinn Ewers and seven returning starters on defense will do that for you. Instead of getting a tough schedule for the first time through the SEC, the Longhorns must think they were handed the keys to the kingdom. They get Georgia, Florida and Kentucky at home. There is the usual game with Oklahoma in Dallas and the Aggies in College Station, but the other roadies are at Vandy and at Arkansas.

Prediction: This is a schedule made for a championship. Georgia at home. No Alabama, no Ole Miss. Texas makes the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff.

3. Alabama: Kalen DeBoer is 104-12 as a head coach. Sure, he’s never coached in the SEC, but winners win and this is Alabama we’re talking about. He turned Michael Penix Jr. into a first round draft pick and Penix may not be anywhere as gifted as Jalen Milroe. Remember the name Justice Haynes. He will be the next great Alabama running back. The defense will be stout.

Prediction: It’s hard to imagine anything less than 10 wins even in a year in which the head coach is trying to fill the shoes of the greatest of all time, Nick Saban.

4. Ole Miss: Imagine Lane Kiffin with a defense that gets off the field on third down, giving him more plays and possessions. Well, the Rebels might have one of the most improved defenses in the country this year, which is scary when you consider just how good the offense is going to be. Ole Miss finished 65th nationally in total defense a year ago. With Walter Nolen, Chris Paul Jr. and a secondary rebuilt through the portal, Ole Miss should have a top 20 unit. Offensively, Jaxson Dart has the best receivers in the SEC to throw to in Juice Wells, Tre Harris and TE Caden Prieskorn plus so many good running backs that the loss of Quinshon Judkins will be negated. Two tough roadies in LSU and Florida, but Oklahoma and Georgia are homers.

Prediction: It will be difficult for the Rebels to win fewer than nine games. Ten or eleven is more probable. Lane could win the SEC but will definitely make the College Football Playoff.

5. LSU: There is no Jayden Daniels to improvise and make opposing defenses look silly. There is also no running game without him. Garrett Nussmeier can fling the ball all over the field but he will be operating behind an offensive line that was constantly bailed out by Daniels’ doing a Houdini and escaping. Nuss doesn’t have Daniels’ fancy feet nor will he have Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas to throw it to. The defense was so bad that Brian Kelly hired a new coordinator, but the players are pretty much the same.

Prediction: For the Tigers to contend, they will have to get a big boost from the schedule that includes Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma at home. LSU will win eight games but won’t be nearly as good as the record indicates.

6. Missouri: The Tigers play the nation’s 62nd toughest schedule, opening with two homeless shelters and a convent before SEC play opens with Vanderbilt at home. There are eight offensive starters including QB Brady Cook and WR Luther Burden III. A lot of defensive players from a year ago will be picking up an NFL paycheck but it won’t matter. A loaded up offense and that pansy schedule means the Tigers can outscore just about anyone they play.

Prediction: They probably win 10 games and make the College Football Playoff, but they won’t be nearly as good as their record indicates.

The Florida defense had its best game of the year against Tennessee in 2023 (Photo by Chris Spears)

7. Tennessee: A year after Joe Milton was good for reductions of 15 points and 77 yards per game of offense, the Vols are hanging their hats on sophomore Nico Iamaleava, who is supposed to be so good he will lead them to the promised land. While the offense should be at least a touchdown better per game than a year ago, there will be eight new starters on defense including the entire secondary. The Vols will get four wins from their non-conference schedule plus they get Arkansas and Vanderbilt. Oklahoma and Georgia are on the road with three straight homers with Florida, Alabama and Kentucky.

Prediction: The Vols won 11 in 2022, nine a season ago. This one has the feel of seven or eight. At most.

8. Oklahoma: For starters, the Sooners play at Auburn, at Ole Miss, at Missouri and at LSU, plus Texas in Dallas. They play home games with Tennessee and Alabama. There is a new QB in former 5-star Jackson Arnold along with seven other newbies on the offensive side of the ball. The defense couldn’t stop the run last year and that was against a Big 12 schedule.

Prediction: As Robert Preston in the part of Professor Harold Hill in “The Music Man” warned, “We got trouble, right here in River City.” Six wins, seven at the most.

9. Texas A&M: In private the Aggies are doing their best Nancy Kerrigan. Whyyyyyyy meeeee? The Longhorns got a pansy schedule. The Aggies start the season with Notre Dame and their conference schedule includes (at) Florida, Missouri, LSU, (at) Auburn and Texas. Oh, and remember that recruiting class a couple of years ago that was the best since Gideon beat the Midianites and their 20,000 with 300 recruits? Half of it including nearly all the good ones, are gone. So is Jimbo. And QB Conner Weigman has been good for four games a season before he’s gotten hurt the last two years.

Prediction: The Aggies are going to lose two of the first three (Notre Dame and at Florida), which might have the faithful asking what they were thinking when they paid Jimbo a gazillion dollars not to coach. They might have to beat Texas in the season finale to make a bowl game.

10. Auburn: Hugh Freeze teams tend to get much better in year two but for the Tigers to get better than last year’s 6-7 Payton Thorne is going to have to make people believe 2023 was a fluke. He doesn’t exactly make one think he’s the second coming of Tom Brady. In addition to a slew of transfers of which eight figure to start, Freeze has new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The road schedule is rough with trips to Georgia, Mizzou, Kentucky and Alabama.

Prediction: There should be celebrations on Toomer’s Corner if Freeze can get the Tigers to seven regular season wins.

11. Kentucky: For the Wildcats to do better than 7-6, the defense is going to have to carry the load. Nine starters return for coordinator Brad White. There is a new offensive coordinator and a new QB in Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff, who, at one time was thought to be the second coming in Athens. He’s never started a game and this year he’s got to beat his old buddies  in the third game of the season plus roadies at Ole Miss, Florida, Tennessee and Texas.

Prediction: They keep telling us that Mark Stoops is a brilliant coach. He will have to be for the Wildcats to be anything better than 6-6 or 7-5.

Montrell Johnson Jr. is as good if not better than any SEC running back (Photo by Chris Spears)

12. Florida: This is not the 12th best team in the Southeastern Conference. Count on it. Billy Napier has an experienced team and an offense that is going to light up a lot of opponents. Graham Mertz can go vertical on every play and Montrell Johnson Jr. is as good as any running back in the SEC. The O-line will be better. Where the Gators will be vastly improved is on defense where experience and transfers are going to make this a top 30 unit.

Prediction: Seven home games, nine in the state of Florida and improvement on both sides of the ball. Don’t be shocked if the Gators are 6-1 or even 7-0 when they play the Poodles in Jacksonville. Seven wins for sure, eight do-able and nine not completely out of the question if everybody stays healthy.

13. South Carolina: Last year’s everybody out for a pass offense doesn’t have Spencer Rattler to heave it downfield. The QB is LaNorris Sellers, who threw four passes last year. Shane Beamer brought in Raheim Sanders from Arkansas and Oscar Adaway III from North Texas State to run behind a very good O-line that returns four starters. The Gamecocks are going to have to go ground and pound to keep the defense off the field. If they can’t control the clock, the Gamecocks will struggle to break even.

Prediction: Four wins thanks to three of the four non-conference games (fourth is Clemson) and Vanderbilt.

14. Arkansas: Bobby Petrino is back in Fayette Nam to coordinate an offense that will be led by Boise State transfer QB Taylen Green, who threw nearly as many completions (9) to the other team as he did TDPs (11) to his own. Four running backs left including Rocket Sanders.  Three transfer starters on the OL and six newbies on a defense that couldn’t keep people out of the end zone a year ago spell a long, difficult season.

Prediction: Sam Pittman needs six wins in the worst way. He’ll be lucky to get four.

15. Mississippi State: The Bulldogs were fun to watch when Mike Leach was the HBC, not so much fun under last year’s head coach, Zach Arnett. Arnett was replaced after one year by Jeff Lebby, who cut his coaching teeth at Oklahoma in a freewheeling offense that lit up scoreboards. The folks in Starkville are hoping his offense can at least make them competitive. It’s going to take at least a couple of recruiting classes for that to happen.

Prediction: At least the non-conference games are winnable.

16. Vanderbilt: Year three of the Clark Lea Era should be better than year two, but not by much. There will be 14 new starters, one of which is Diego Pavia, the QB at New Mexico State last year. Both the offensive and defensive lines will look like boys playing against grown men when lined up against SEC opponents. Another long year is all but assured.

Prediction: Everybody in the SEC needs a good homecoming opponent. Vandy is that team.