Thoughts of the Day: August 26, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

CHANGE MY FIRST NAME TO CLAIRE AND MY LAST NAME TO VOYANT

A dirty dozen college football predictions ahead of Saturday’s first games

1. The Florida O-line will be beastly

The 2017 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ran for 183.67 yards per game and averaged a very respectable 4.88 per carry. A year later in Billy Napier’s first year on the job with Rob Sale as his O-line coach, the Cajuns averaged 218.71 yards, 5.54 per carry and they scored 31 rushing touchdowns. Fast forward to 2021 when the Gators averaged 208.69 yards per game on the ground, 5.48 per carry and scored 26 TDs. That was with an offensive line that knew how to block but also had a penchant for shooting itself in the foot with false starts and holding penalties. The 2022 Gators will run the ball better than they did last year, largely because Sale will have the O-line in beast mode starting with game one against Utah. The starting O-line should be LT Richard Gouraige (6-5, 308), LG Ethan White (6-4, 331), C Kingsley Eguakun (6-3, 301), RG O’Cyrus Torrence (6-5, 347) and RT Michael Tarquin (6-5, 320). The second unit should be LT Austin Barber (6-6, 312), LG Richie Leonard IV (6-2, 318), C Leonard, RG Josh Braun (6-6, 351) and RT Kamryn Waites (6-8, 373). Also figuring in the rotation are Jake Slaughter (6-5, 300) and Jordan Herman (6-8, 373).

2. Utah, Kentucky and Tennessee can’t score if they can’t get the football

As Louisiana opponents concluded in year one and in the subsequent three years, you can’t score if you can’t get the football back. The Ragin Cajuns scored 132 rushing touchdowns in four seasons. In addition to a big O-line that loved to punish opponents, Napier always had at least a 3-back rotation. Fresh legs and a powerful O-line kept the Louisiana offense on the field and the opposing offense off. The Gators have the big O-line, a 4-back rotation in Montrell Johnson, Nay’Quan Wright, Lorenzo Lingard and Trevor Etienne, plus the added dimension of QB Anthony Richardson, who has go the distance speed. It will be hard to stop the Gators from running the ball which means they will control the clock, pound opposing defenses and keep the other team’s offense on the sideline. They can’t score if they can’t get the football.

3. If the defense can stop the run, the Gators will surprise a lot of folks

This is going to be the tricky part. When it comes to the back seven, the Gators are going to be really, really good. Up front it’s dicey. The lack of decent D-line recruiting the past few years sticks out like a sore thumb. For the Gators to be good (a) Gervon Dexter has to be dominant, (b) Jalen Lee and Desmond Watson have to show they can control the gap on either side of the center, and (c) Princely Umanmielen and Tyreak Sapp have to play very well at DE. The Gators are going to be very good at the linebacker spots and the secondary will be exceptional. The key will be stopping the run. If the Gators can make opponents one-dimensional, then this defense will shock the SEC.

4. Tennessee will not contend

The Vols act like they woke up on third base thinking they just hit a triple. They’re feeling pretty cocky, particularly about game four when the Gators come to Neyland Stadium. Their defense, which gave up 29.1 points and 421.7 yards per game last year, isn’t going to be much better, in large part because Josh Heupel doesn’t give them a break with his a new play every 20 seconds offense. The Vols play (at) Pitt and Florida in September and then they still have (at) LSU, Alabama and Kentucky in October plus (at) Georgia in November. This will be a 7-5 team.

5. Beware of Mississippi State and Ole Miss

Will Rogers is in his third year as a starter in Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense. He threw for 4,739 yards and 36 TDs last year. Third-year QBs under Leach put up Star Wars numbers. Did you know Zach Arnett’s defense was fifth in the SEC and 31st nationally last year and he has nine starters back. Circle September 17. The Bulldogs are going to ambush LSU in Tiger Stadium. Lane Kiffin has loaded up with 20 transfers that should make the Rebels better than last year when they won 10 games and went to the Sugar Bowl. The 1-2 running punch of transfers Zach Evans and Ulysses Bentley will be lethal and no matter whether it’s Jaxson Dart or Luke Altmeyer at QB, he will be throwing to Jonathan Mingo (scary good), Louisville transfer Jordan Watkins (very, very fast) and tight end Michael Trigg, who could wind up being equal to Brock Bowers as the best in the SEC. The Rebels could be 7-0 before they face the gauntlet of (at) LSU, (at) Texas A&M, Alabama, and (at) Arkansas.

6. Money won’t buy the Big Ten any love

For all the bluster about their mega media deal, there is still that teensy factor of weather. Adding Southern Cal and UCLA won’t alter the recruiting landscape enough to turn the Big Ten into a more powerful conference than the SEC. The other 14 teams still have to deal with weather that sucks. As Mike Farrell has pointed out, the faster, more talented kids will still go to the SEC because (a) the weather, (b) better coaches, (c) the weather, (d) only two national championships for Big Ten teams (both by Ohio State) since 2000 and only three since 1990, (d) the weather and (e) all of the above. Even when commish Kevin Warren stabs former alliance buddy George Kliavkoff in the back when he destroys the Pac-12 by adding Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford, the Big Ten will still be the country cousins to the SEC.

7. Get ready for four power conferences

When the Pac-12 folds – perhaps by the end of the year – Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado will join the Big 12, which will add some negotiating power for a nice network deal since it will add the Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas, Salt Lake, Denver and Colorado Springs TV markets into a league that already has Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Orlando and Tampa. The football won’t be bad and the basketball will be the best in the country with Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston, TCU, Arizona and BYU.

8. The Nick Saban revenge tour

That’s what you can call Alabama football 2022. Nick lost to Jimbo and Kirby last year. It’s not nice to make the old boss mad. Nick has been living rent free in Jimbo Fisher’s head ever since he made those NIL remarks. You won’t convince me that wasn’t a shot across the bow of the SS Aggie. There was purpose to the remarks. Did the Aggies cheat? Sort of. They paid recruits, but remember NIL stands for Now It’s Legal. As for Kirby, that will have to wait for the SEC Championship Game. Nick destroyed Georgia in the SEC title game last year when he had a healthy Jameson Williams and John Metchie III. He lost to the Bulldogs without them. Bama has the wide receivers it needs this year and a defense that will remind Stetson Bennett the 12th that he’s really not that good. Georgia (a) lost too many good players and (b) will have to deal with a pissed off Nick Saban.

9. The best team in the Pac-12 will be …

Southern Cal? Nope. Oregon? With Bo Nix at QB? Oh please. Utah? Maybe, but probably not. The answer is UCLA. Chip Kelly will win the Pac-12 then put himself on the market for a job in the SEC, especially in a state that has low to zero state income tax (he pays 13.3 percent now and there is a bill in the legislature that would raise it to 14.3 percent for everyone making more than $1 million. For all the talk about Caleb Williams at Southern Cal, the best QB in the league will be cross town in Westwood where Dorian Thompson-Robinson will inject himself into the Heisman Trophy watch list early on. UCLA has a cupcake schedule. Washington, Utah, Stanford and Southern Cal all have to play the Bruins in the Rose Bowl.

10. Miami will NOT win the Almost Competitive Conference

Miami isn’t even the second best team in the ACC much less the best. Clemson is the best team in the league and North Carolina State is the second best. Period. Miami will get clocked by the Aggies in College Station in game three. They have to play at Virginia Tech in late October and they finish out the season with (at) Clemson and Pittsburgh. Clemson will win the league because the Tigers play North Carolina State and Miami in Death Valley. Clemson WILL beat Notre Dame in South Bend in early November. By then Cade Klubnik will be drawing comparisons to Trevor Lawrence. If any team can beat the Tigers it’s North Carolina State but the game is a homer for Clemson.

11. Notre Dame will NOT contend for a national championship

The euphoria over Marcus Freeman will begin to die down next Saturday when Ohio State does a tap dance on the Fighting Irish in Columbus. Quick trivia question: Who was Ohio State’s leading tackler in the beatdown loss to Florida in the 2006 national championship game? Answer: Marcus Freeman. The Irish will lose that one and they will also lose to BYU in Las Vegas in October and to Clemson on November 5. This is a 3-loss team that (a) doesn’t have a stud QB and (b) even if it did there aren’t any decent wide receivers to throw the ball to.

12. The next coach at Auburn will be …

I think Bryan Harsin is a good football coach. I think he will win enough games that the Auburn alums will grumble a lot but won’t mount a serious firing campaign. I think there will be enough good jobs opening up that Harsin will give Auburn the fickle finger of fate and leave for a place that will appreciate him. I believe Auburn would love to hire Mark Stoops from Kentucky, but I think he’s too smart to deal with the Auburn boosters. So the next coach will be either Jamey Chadwell (Coastal Carolina) or Hugh Freeze (Liberty) or Chip Kelly (UCLA).

The SEC Soothsayer

Vanderbilt (0-0) at Hawai’i (0-0)

It’s not often that Vanderbilt has a chance to win a season opener against a Division I team but this one is (a) in Hawai’i and (b) the Rainbow Warriors are coached by Timmy Chang, who has brought back the run-and-shoot. Chang threw for more than 17,000 yards as the QB at Hawai’i from 2000-04. He’ll have the Warriors chunking it all over the yard Saturday against a Vandy team that (a) can’t rush the passer (9 last year) and (b) struggles to stop the pass.

The Sayer Says Sooth: Hawai’i 37, Vanderbilt 21

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: I was asked to name my top 10 college football coaches of all time Thursday, so here’s my list.

1. Nick Saban (Toledo, Michigan State, LSU, Alabama); 2. Bear Bryant (Maryland, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Alabama; 3. General Bob Neyland (Tennessee); 4. Steve Spurrier (Duke, Florida, South Carolina); 5. Knute Rockne (Notre Dame); 6. John McKay (Southern Cal); 7. Bobby Bowden (Samford, West Virginia, Florida State); 8. Urban Meyer (Bowling Green, Utah, Florida, Ohio State); 9. Dr. Tom Osborne (Nebraska); 10. Joe Paterno (Penn State)