DO YOU WANT THE GOOD NEWS OR THE BAD NEWS FIRST?

THOUGHTS OF THE DAY

October 16, 2002

Franz Beard

THERE IS GOOD NEWS AND THERE IS BAD NEWS FOR FLORIDA’S BELEAGUERED DEFENSE.

The good news is there is no game this week, which means no chunk plays, blown coverages, missed tackles or third down and an overnight hike conversions.

The bad news is the Gators face No. 1 Georgia a week from Saturday and right now the Georgia offense is cranking out 41.7 points and 526.6 yards per game. The Bulldogs are pounding away for 196.7 yards per game on the ground and led by the little quarterback who could, Stetson Bennett, they’re throwing for 329.9. Worse yet, they’re converting 52.38 percent of their third downs (44-84).

The Gators, meanwhile, are giving up 28.1 points and 429 yards per game. The Gators are 11th in the SEC in points against, 12th in rush defense (185 yards per game), 11th in pass defense (244.3 yards), 12th in yards per play (5.96) and dead last in both the SEC and nation in third down defense (51-97 for 52.58 percent).

There are no miracles to be had in this off week. What we’ve seen defensively from the Gators probably won’t change significantly in the final five games of the season. For the Gators to win games, it’s probably going to take shootouts. They probably could do a dandy job in that respect if they could just get the other team off the field. The Gators are averaging 430.1 yards per game and 7.20 yards per play. To put that in better perspective, the 2020 Gators who had Kyle Trask throwing to Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney averaged 7.28 per play. The 1995 Gators, who had Danny Wuerffel, Chris Doering, Reidel Anthony, Ike Hilliard, Jaquez Green and Fred Taylor only averaged 7.4 per play.

Billy Napier has some offensive weapons. Anthony Richardson is averaging 8.0 per pass attempt, which is very good. As a team, the Gators rank second in the nation in yards per carry (6.38) and they’re fifth in rushing touchdowns (20). A year ago when they were fourth in the country in average yards per carry (5.48), they got into the end zone 26 times in 13 games. When everyone is healthy on the offensive line, the Gators rank among the very best in the country according to the analytics.

The offense could be so much better if the Gators could squeeze off more plays. They’re averaging a shade under 60 per game while opponents are on the field for 72. At their current rate, give the Gators 12 more plays and that’s 100 more yards. More importantly, that’s time of possession that UF has the ball and the defense isn’t up to its usual shenanigans.

So what’s Billy Napier to do in this bye week? This isn’t like the NFL where he can make trades or put under-performing players on the waiver wire. He has 85 scholarship players, most of whom were recruited by the previous head coach and staff. On the defensive side of the ball, he has inadequate numbers on the line and at linebacker. Overall, there isn’t what you would call SEC speed. There is only one serious pass rusher (Brenton Cox Jr.) and he gets doubled on every play.

You can’t say sit the vets and play the kids. There are only four players on the team who will run out of eligibility after this year and 13 juniors. Of those 17, only seven are defenders. Everyone else on the roster is either a sophomore or freshman in eligibility.

What that tells us about the remainder of 2022 is that Napier and his defensive coaches may shuffle some players around or do a smoke and mirrors approach like Joe Lee Dunn used to in his heyday. But, you better hold your breath and hope the offense can control the football to keep the defense off the field as long as possible.

Looking forward, the Gators are going to have to rebuild through recruiting and the transfer portal. The NCAA scholarship limit is 85 so to keep the numbers at or under the limit, there are scholarship players on the current UF roster with eligibility remaining who aren’t going to be here next year. It is unpleasant for coaches to deal with the numbers crunch and it’s heartbreaking for a lot of players, but it’s a necessity.

Either Napier will have to do some house cleaning on his current roster or the Gators will be looking at the same issues defensively next year.

Associated Press top 25: 1. Georgia 7-0; 2. Ohio State 6-0; 3. Tennessee 6-0; 4. Michigan 7-0; 5. Clemson 7-0; 6. Alabama 6-1; 7. Ole Miss 7-0; 8. TCU 6-0; 9. UCLA 6-0; 10. Oregon 5-1; 11. Oklahoma State 5-1; 12. Southern California 6-1; 13. Wake Forest 5-1; 14. Syracuse 6-0; 15. Utah 5-2; 16. Penn State 5-1; 17. Kansas State 5-1; 18. Illinois 6-1; 19. Kentucky 5-2; 20. Texas 5-2; 21. Cincinnati 5-1; 22. North Carolina 6-1; 23. North Carolina State 5-2; 24. Mississippi State 5-2; 25. Tulane 6-1

AFCA Coaches top 25: 1. Georgia 7-0; 2. Ohio State 6-0; 3. Michigan 7-0; 4. Tennessee 6-0; 5. Clemson 7-0; 6. Alabama 6-1; 7. Ole Miss 7-0; 8. TCU 6-0; 9. Oregon 5-1; 10. UCLA 6-0; 11. Oklahoma State 5-1; 12. Southern California 6-1; 13. Wake Forest 5-1; 14. Syracuse 6-0; 15. Utah 5-2; 16. Penn State 5-1; 17. Kansas State 5-1; 18. Kentucky 5-2; 19. Cincinnati 5-1; 20. Illinois 6-1; 21. Texas 5-2; 22. North Carolina 6-1; 23. North Carolina State 5-2; 24. Mississippi State 5-2; 25. Tulane 6-1

SEC football (Associated Press Rankings)

No. 6 Alabama (6-1, 3-1 SEC): The Alabama defense that was supposed to be the best in the country this year gave up 567 yards in the loss to Tennessee including 385 and five touchdown passes. Nick Saban said his defense played “soft” in what may qualify as the understatement of the year … Alabama was flagged for 17 penalties in the loss to Tennessee. The Crimson Tide is 129th out of 131 Division I teams for most penalties this season. Next week: vs. No. 24 Mississippi State (5-2, 2-2 SEC)

Arkansas (4-3, 1-3 SEC): KJ Jefferson came back from concussion protocol with a vengeance, throwing for a career-high five touchdowns in the Razorbacks’ 52-35 win over Brigham Young in Provo … Raheim Sanders, the sophomore from Rockledge, Florida, did his part to help the cause against BYU, running for 175 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Next week: Open

Auburn (3-4, 1-3 SEC): Tank Bigsby, who hadn’t run for more than 51 yards against a Division I opponent all year, broke out with a 179-yard, 2-touchdown effort in the Tigers’ loss to Ole Miss … The twitterverse is alive with calls by Auburn fans to fire Bryan Harsin. Apparently that’s not going to happen until a new athletic director is hired. Next week: Open

No. 1 Georgia (7-0, 4-0 SEC): In posting their second shutout of the year, Will Muschamp’s defense allowed only 150 total yards against Vanderbilt. Five of seven opponents have failed to run for 100 yards and it has been five games since an opponent managed 300 total yards. Next week: Open

No. 19 Kentucky (5-2, 2-2 SEC): The Kentucky defense held Mississippi State’s high-flying offense to only 225 yards … Chris Rodriguez ground out 197 yards and two touchdowns against Mississippi State, his second 100-yard rushing game since returning from suspension. Next week: Open

LSU (5-2, 3-1 SEC): Jayden Daniels threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 44 yards and three more TDs against the Gators. Next week: vs. No. 7 Ole Miss (7-0, 3-0 SEC)

No. 24 Mississippi State (5-2, 2-2 SEC): Next week: at No. 6 Alabama (6-1, 3-1 SEC)

Missouri (2-4, 0-3 SEC): Missouri’s defense ranks 24th nationally (330.5 yards per game) and fourth in the SEC. Next week: vs. Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-3 SEC)

No. 7 Ole Miss (7-0, 3-0 SEC): The Rebels ran for a season-high 448 yards against Auburn, the highest rushing total against an Auburn defense in 20 years. Quinshon Judkins ran for 139 yards and two touchdowns, Zach Evans ran for 136 and a TD, and quarterback Jaxson Dart ran for 115 yards. Next week: at LSU (5-2, 3-1 SEC)

South Carolina (4-2, 1-2 SEC): The Gamecocks host Texas A&M while coming off a bye week. HBC Shane Beamer is 5-0 when he has had extra time to prepare for a game. Next week: vs. Texas A&M (3-3, 1-2 SEC)

No. 3 Tennessee (6-0, 3-0 SEC): The Vols moved up to No. 3 in the Associated Press poll, their highest ranking since September of 2005 when they were ranked fifth prior to losing to Florida … Jalin Hyatt caught six passes for 207 yards against Alabama. Five of the catches went for touchdowns. Next week: vs. UT-Martin (4-2)

Texas A&M (3-3, 1-2 SEC): There was a bomb threat at Kyle Field last week that cancelled football practice for the Aggies. Next week: at South Carolina (4-2, 1-2 SEC)

Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-3 SEC): Since scoring 168 in their four non-conference games to start the season, the Commodores have scored only 31 in their three SEC games. Next week: at Missouri (2-4, 1-3 SEC)

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

Oklahoma (4-3, 1-3 Big 12): With Dillon Gabriel out for most of the TCU game and all of the game with Texas under concussion protocol, the Oklahoma offense was in the tank. Gabriel came back Saturday against Kansas, throwing for 403 yards and two touchdowns as the Sooners broke a 3-game losing streak in the Big 12. Next week: Open

No. 20 Texas (5-2, 3-1 Big 12): Quinn Ewers third touchdown pass of the game in the fourth quarter lifted Texas to a 24-21 come-from-behind win over Iowa State. Next week: at No. 11 Oklahoma State

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: After a day to think about it, here are five final thoughts about a rather entertaining weekend of college football:

1. Notre Dame is 3-3: Wasn’t Marcus Freeman supposed to be everything Brian Kelly wasn’t? He’s 3-3 after losing to Stanford. I can’t imagine that Kelly would have been 3-3 had he stayed with the Irish.

2. James Franklin is a good but not a great coach: Michigan ran for more than 400 yards and hung 41 points on Penn State, which supposedly had one of the great defenses in college football. Franklin can win eight or nine games just about any year and occasionally more, he’s good. He just isn’t nor will he ever be great.

3. Finebaum is right about Alabama: Paul Finebaum says the discipline is lacking in Alabama, evident in those 17 penalties against Tennessee. In three road games this year, Alabama has been flagged 42 times for 331 yards. Now that Alabama has lost, the Tide will almost certainly have to run the table in the regular season and then win the SEC Championship Game to make the College Football Playoff.

4. UCLA is the best team in the Pac-12: Chip Kelly has the Bruins unbeaten and in the top ten. This week they’ll do a tapdance on Oregon, which means they’ll only have to beat Southern Cal to win the Pac-12 regular season title. For all the hype about Caleb Williams at Southern Cal, the best QB in the Pac-12 is Dorian Thompson-Robinson at UCLA, which is why the Bruins are the best team in the league.

5. Lane Kiffin to Auburn is wishful thinking: Auburn fans want him in the worst way, but why go to Auburn and deal with those zany boosters as well as coach and recruit in the same state as Nick Saban? Ole Miss pays him $7.25 million, he has outstanding facilities and he’s proven that you don’t have to have top-five high school recruiting classes when you know how to dip into the portal for proven players.