Thoughts of the Day: Opportunity awaits the Gators tonight

A few thoughts to jump start your Thursday morning:

“A pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty.” – Winston Churchill

Churchill also wrote that those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. With the Florida Gators that’s a two-way street as they open their 2023 season tonight on the road at 14th-ranked Utah (8 p.m., ESPN). Billy Napier’s history says he’s lights out in year two. Florida’s history also says the Gators have posted losing records the last two seasons.

From a pessimist’s standpoint, the Gators are quite likely to repeat the 6-7 records of 2021 and 2022. The optimist, however, sees opportunity and looks back on what Napier did at Louisiana when he took the 7-7 team of 2018 and turned it into an 11-3 team in 2019.

There is no shortage of pessimism when it comes to the 2023 Gators. From the moment the Las Vegas oddsmakers set Florida’s over/under at 5.5, it has been like an invitation to pour it on with the low expectations. The 5.5 seems rather optimistic when compared to the dire predictions of Stewart Mandel of The Athletic. He predicts a 3-9 finish, 1-7 in the SEC, worst records overall and in the conference.

Pessimists also point to a season ago when the Gators were only a few plays away from a 3-9 finish in Napier’s first year in Gainesville. Of course, the optimist points to the handful of plays that were the difference in 6-7 when 10-2 in the regular season was entirely do-able. The Florida offense giftwrapped a 26-16 loss to Kentucky. On one of those rare occasions when the defense showed up, the Gators held Kentucky to a single offensive touchdown, but Anthony Richardson interceptions gave the Wildcats a pair of TDs. Florida had the ball on the last possessions in a 38-33 loss to Tennessee, a 31-24 loss to Vanderbilt and a 45-38 loss to Florida State.

Pessimists see the re-worked 2023 Florida roster as depending on far too many kids and transfers, but whenever the subject of transfers comes up, the centerpiece of the discussion is quarterback Graham Mertz. Mertz started 32 games at Wisconsin, won 19 of them but had a 1-7 record against ranked teams. After throwing seven touchdown passes without an interception in his first two games as a redshirt freshman, Mertz threw only 31 more TDPs in the next 30 games and compounded matters by completing 26 passes to the other team. Pessimists see Graham Mertz as (1) an average quarterback who will never improve and (2) a bad decision on the part of Napier who should have aimed higher up the transfer portal to land a quarterback like Michael Pratt of Tulane or Grayson McCall of Coastal Carolina or maybe even Cameron “Bad Moon” Rising of Utah.

Optimists see a roster that might be younger but certainly is faster and more talented top to bottom than the one that took the field a year ago when the Gators shocked then 10th-ranked Utah, 29-26, in the first game of the season. Optimists see how key positions are better thanks to transfers like nose tackle where Cam Jackson (6-6, 371) and inside linebacker Teradja Mitchell are upgrades. Optimists see freshmen wide receivers like Aidan Mizell, Eugene Wilson III and Andy Jean as fast enough to back safeties off an extra five yards, providing Ricky Pearsall room to roam. Optimists see rookies in the secondary like Jordan Castell, Ja’Keem Jackson and Dijon Johnson as equalizers with closing speed, capable of breaking up passes on third down. Optimists also see Graham Mertz as a quarterback who will be surrounded by faster receivers while operating in the shotgun in a more quarterback friendly offense.

Pessimists also look to an offensive line that has only one full-time starter returning in center Kingsley Eguakun (6-3, 302), who is injured and out for game one, and think it can’t be as good as the one that allowed only 17 sacks in 13 games plus opened holes for Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne to pace a running game that averaged 5.53 yards per carry.

The optimist looks at the history of Napier’s two O-line coaches approach and how the Louisiana Rajun Cajuns had an 1,100-yard rusher, two with more than 800 yards and allowed only 15 sacks in 14 games in 2019. Rob Sale was one of those coaches in 2019. He and Darnell Stapleton did such a good job working with guys they’d never coached before a year ago that optimists have to believe that a line of LT Austin Barber, LG Richie Leonard IV or Knjeah Harris, C Eguakun or Jake Slaughter, RG Micah Mazzccua and RT Damieon George Jr. will be as good if not better.

The schedule is daunting. A year ago the Gators played eight teams that went on to play in bowl games. Of the 12 teams on the 2023 schedule, nine went to bowl games and four – Utah, 12th-ranked Tennessee, No. 1 Georgia and 5th-ranked LSU – are ranked among the top 15 teams in the country to start the season. The 2023 schedule is ranked by many as the toughest in the nation, but this is the Southeastern Conference so the schedule is always going to be tough and once Oklahoma and Texas join the league in 2024 it will be that much tougher.

The Gators go into this game 4.5-point underdogs. The line dropped two points Wednesday upon reports that stud quarterback Cameron “Bad Moon” Rising will miss the game, but you have to wonder if Rising will have a Willis Reed moment or one like Kirk Gibson had when he launched a pinch-hit home run in the bottom of the ninth and then limped around the bases as the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Oakland A’s in game one of the World Series.

Would Utah coach Kyle Whittingham insert Rising into the game tonight for a few plays or maybe a series or two to send the Rice-Eccles Stadium crowd into a frenzy? Until Rising is seen in street clothes prior to and during the game, you can’t discount the possibility.

Whether Rising plays or sits this one out, Florida does have a really good shot to leave Salt Lake City 1-0, spiking a wave of optimism that will ripple throughout the Gator Nation while maybe causing some of the pessimistic national pundits to pause for re-evaluation of their dire straights predictions.

Here are five keys to win the game:

1. The Total Eclipse of the Sun, also known as nose tackles Cam Jackson (6-6, 371) and Des Watson (6-5, 435) take away the gaps on either side of the center, forcing the Utes to run outside where Florida’s speedy linebackers can make plays.

2. Florida’s offensive line will grind away, particularly on the right side where Micah Mazzccua (6-5, 337) and Damieon George Jr. (6-6, 350) will dominate. Those five and six-yard runs of the first 40 minutes of the game will start becoming eight and 10-yard runs in the final 20.

3. When Utah is forced to play its safeties closer to the line of scrimmage to shut off Florida’s running game, Graham Mertz will find Ricky Pearsall and Caleb Douglas in the seams with some mid-range darts that will go for big yards. Playing the safeties closer will also open things up for freshman Eugene Wilson III to wreak havoc in the slot.

4. New coordinator Austin Armstrong’s defense will register at least four sacks while applying constant pressure on whoever Utah trots out at quarterback. With everyone on Utah cognizant of Princely Umanmielen coming off the edge, expect Armstrong to bring blitz packages from odd angles that can’t be anticipated.

5. The altitude in Salt Lake City is 4,265 feet. Just as the altitude adds distance to hitters in baseball, it adds distance for punters. Jeremy Crawshaw’s ability to flip the field will come into play and he will hit at least one rocket that will take everyone’s breath away.

The sayer says sooth: A year ago, the Gators ran for 283 yards on the Utes. Tonight they’ll go for at least 250 and in the fourth quarter with a running clock after first downs (new NCAA rule), the Utes won’t be able to stop the clock. Graham Mertz won’t have to throw more than 20 passes but that will be more than enough. FLORIDA 27, Utah 17

The SEC soothsayer

Tonight’s game

Missouri 35, South Dakota 10: Mizzou’s defense is very good. The offense will have the faithful wondering if Sam Horn or Jake Garcia couldn’t do a better job.

Saturday’s games

No. 1 Georgia 63, UT-Martin 3: It won’t matter who’s the quarterback until SEC play begins in two weeks. There isn’t a single player on UT-Martin’s entire team that could make Georgia’s 85-man roster.

No. 4 Alabama 49, Middle Tennessee State 7: The Nick Saban Revenge Tour begins by unleashing a running game like the Tide used to have in the pre-Lane Kiffin days.

No. 12 Tennessee 51, Virginia 21: They want us to believe Joe Milton is the real deal. Maybe we’ll know when the Vols play someone good but they’re still 4-5 touchdowns better than UVa.

No. 23 Texas A&M 44, New Mexico 7: Is a Jimbo-Bobby Petrino divorce inevitable? Can they co-exist? Doesn’t matter in this one.

Kentucky 41, Ball State 10: By halftime UK fans will be asking around for tickets to Midnight Madness in October.

Arkansas 38, Western Carolina 14: This is a paycheck game for the Fighting Kerwin Bells, who will take their beating like men and hustle on back to Cullowhee, North Carolina.

Ole Miss 58, Mercer 14: The big question is can Quinshon Judkins run for 200 yards in the first half?

Mississippi State 31, Southeastern Louisiana 21: Conventional offense for a team that was recruited for Air Raid. MSU will win but it’s going to be a very interesting season.

Auburn 52, UMass 14: Rolling the oak trees at Toomer’s Corner is allowed once again. Auburn fans could start Friday.

Vanderbilt 38, Alabama A&M 25: The over/under for attendance is 15,000.

Sunday’s game

LSU 37, Florida State 34: The College Football Playoff balloon for one of these two teams will take a hatpin Sunday. FSU’s air will leak all the way until September 30 when Clemson deflates the Noles completely.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Charlie Baker, the former governor of Massachusetts whose job now it is to beg Congress to bail out the NCAA, has spoken and if you close your eyes, you’ll think you’re hearing the voice of Mark Emmert all over again. In an interview with The Athletic, Baker defended the NCAA decision to deny transfer waiver requests for immediate eligibility to wide receiver Tez Walker (North Carolina), defensive lineman Darrell Walker (Florida State) and Tyler Brown (Colorado). All three have what seem to be compelling reasons to transfer.

In defense of the NCAA denials, Baker said, “Look, you’re talking about less than one percent of all transfers.”

Oh, but it’s okay for coaches who make millions of dollars to leave their team high and dry before a bowl game. But a player, who might want to move closer to home to be with his dying mother (Walker) has to sit a year. Yeah, that makes sense.

No matter who is in charge of the NCAA, in its infinite wisdom, I’m reminded of that line from Al Pacino in the movie “Scent of a Woman” – “If I were the man I was five years ago I’d take a flamethrower to this place!”

Someone who is the man he was five years ago, do us a favor. Take a flamethrower to the NCAA.