Thoughts of the day: September 16, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

RULE NO. 1: GET OUT OF SATURDAY INJURY-FREE

Based on talent alone, the Florida Gators (1-1) should win Saturday’s encounter with South Florida (1-1) at The Swamp (7 p.m., SEC Network) handily. The Gators are 24-point favorites and it would be surprising if the final outcome is that close although Billy Napier will probably go out of his way to keep from embarrassing longtime friend Jeff Scott, the USF head coach.

Having coached in the Fun Belt, which sprung two of the most unlikely upsets last week when Marshall beat Notre Dame in South Bend and Appalachian State took down the Aggies in College Station, you can bet the farm that Napier is taking South Florida seriously. And it isn’t just because there is that remote chance the Gators could be upset by the Bulls. He needs Florida to play well because that’s the best way to get rid of the sour taste of last week’s defeat at the hands of Kentucky.

Expect the Gators to play well. While expecting the Gators to try to work out the kinks in Anthony Richardson and the passing game – UF is one of only seven teams (USF also) in the country without a touchdown pass so far – Florida needs to effectively run the football, particularly with a new starting right tackle and some shuffling among the backups on the O-line. Defensively, Scooby Williams needs to get the reps in the absence of Ventrell Miller and it’s important for the Gators to get the pass rush uncranked. They will need it against Tennessee next week.

The one thing, above all else, that must be accomplished is the Gators need to come out of this game without sustaining another injury. We’ve known since the spring that depth was going to be an issue. Miller and right tackle Michael Tarquin are out at least for this game. UF can’t afford any more injuries.

The Sayer says sooth!: FLORIDA 41, South Florida 14

The SEC Soothsayer

Louisiana-Monroe (1-1) at #2 Alabama (2-0): Overlooked in the euphoria of last week’s muscle flexing by Appalachian State and Marshall of the Fabulous Fun Belt, was the 35-7 thrashing Monroe Doctrine gave D1AA Nicholls State, a tune-up for Saturday’s close encounter with Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The last time the Warhawks visited Tuscaloosa was 2007 when they scored a 21-14 win over Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide. That upset was pulled off without the astute coaching of Little Terry Bowden. Can the Warhawks do it again? Donkeys will fly first. The Sayer says sooth!: Stars Fell on Alabama 67, Marilyn Monroe 7

Missouri State (2-0) at #10 Arkansas (2-0): Bobby Petrino returns to Fayette Nam, presumably on a bus and not on the Harley Davidson that got him into so much trouble back in 2012. It won’t matter if he flies in on a magic carpet with that All-SEC volleyball player who the motorcycle wreck, Mizzou State will lose. This is all about the paycheck so Bobby P will take his beating like a man then high tail it back across the state line. The Sayer says sooth!: Ozark Mountain Daredevils 44, Harley Davidson and the Marlboro Man 14

#22 Penn State (2-0) at Auburn (2-0): This game is a dilemma for Auburn fans. They want their school to slay the Yankee invaders from north of the Mason-Dixon Line but at the same time they would be very happy if said Yankees put the kibosh on their beloved Tigers so they could raise the $18 million it would take to send Bryan Harsin back to the Left Coast where he belongs. The difference will be in the number of passes TJ Finley and Robby Ashford complete to the carpetbaggers from up north. The Sayer says sooth!: Pennsylvania Six-Five Thousand 28, Flaming Locks and Auburn Hair 20

#1 Georgia (2-0, 0-0 SEC) at South Carolina (1-1, 0-1 SEC): Will Muschamp is having to squeeze by on $800,000 a year as Georgia’s defensive coordinator. Fortunately, he’s got the $15 million South Carolina paid him to go away to help make ends meet. Muschamp’s defense may be penalized for illegal drooling Saturday when they go after Spencer Rattler, who has already been sacked nine times. The only way South Carolina wins this game is if they spike the Georgia Gatorade with enough melatonin to make the Poodles comatose. The Sayer says sooth: The Devil Went Down to Georgia 42, 461 Ocean Boulevard 10

Youngstown State (2-0) at #9 Kentucky (2-0): Kentucky’s win over Florida last week all but assures the Mildcats of a perfect September since the next two are the D1AA Youngstown State Penguins and the Northern Illinois Huskies of the MAC and Cheese Conference. Youngstown happens to be the home of all the Stoops brothers so maybe UK shows a little mercy to their hometown. The Sayer says sooth!: Kentucky Woman 38, Penguins of Madagascar 7

Mississippi State (2-0, 0-0 SEC) at LSU (1-1, 0-0 SEC): Granny Holtz gushed over Jayden Daniels earlier in the week, calling him one of the great quarterbacks in the country. Daniels better better be in his feets don’t fail me now mode Saturday night because Zach Arnett’s defense is going to be in his face early and often. Meanwhile, LSU’s defense has to stop the Air Raid, which distributes the ball as well as anyone in the country. Twelve different receivers have already caught a pass for the Men from Cowbell. Folks in Baton Rouge will not be amused with Brian Kelly after their beloved Tigers drop to 1-2. The Sayer says sooth!: Starkville City Jail 35, Born on the Bayou 24

Abilene Christian (2-0) at Missouri (1-1): Mizzou will wear throwback helmets against D1AA Abilene Christian. The Tigers could wear leather helmets and would still beat Abilene Christian. At least, they better win this one because starting next week wins are going to be hard to come by. The next three opponents are Auburn, Georgia and Florida. The Sayer says sooth!: Sheer Misery 30, Abilene, Prettiest Town That I’ve Ever Seen 13

#20 Ole Miss (2-0) at Georgia Tech (1-1): It doesn’t matter who Lane Kiffin starts at quarterback, the Rebels will win this game. Why he could even start the most famous Mississippian of all time, Tupelo’s Elvis Presley, and beat the North Avenue Trade School. It’s only a matter of time before the NATS put Geoff Collins on the Extinct Species List. The Sayer says sooth!: Tupelo Honey 38, Atlanta Rhythm Section 10

Akron (1-1) at #15 Tennessee (2-0): This is the second of the two paycheck games the Vols scheduled in the month of September. The goal for Saturday is to avoid injuries since Florida comes to Knoxville on September 24. The Sayer says sooth!: Smokey Mountain Rain 56, Roy Firestone 7

#13 Miami (2-0) at #24 Texas A&M (1-1): Mario and the Fighting Cristobals are overrated, but then again so are the Aggies even at #24. Just a week ago they were #6 when they were ambushed at Kyle Field by Happy Appy State. The game is a sellout but even 102,000 screaming Aggie fans can’t provide enough energy to pull this one out. The Aggies’ only hope is to play Max Johnson, but Jimbo seems determined to do his best Dan Mullen invitation and go down in flames with a QB who probably would be a fine slot receiver. The Sayer says sooth!: Going Back to Miami 27, Jimbo’s Exes Don’t Live in Texas 14

Vanderbilt (2-1) at Northern Illinois (1-1): Gloria Vanderbilt had its incredible 2-game winning streak snapped last week by Wake Forest Gump. The chardonnay and white seedless grapes tailgate bunch were so upset they have decided to boycott this week’s game with Northern Illinois. Should someone remind them the game is in DeKalb, Illinois? The Sayer says sooth!: Gloria Vanderbilt 33, Northern Lights 30

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

#6 Oklahoma (2-0) at Nebraska (1-2): Well, they don’t have Scott Frost to kick around anymore. He’s got $12.5 million to console himself with while waiting for Bill O’Brien to take a head coaching job somewhere so he can get recycled at St. Nick’s. Meanwhile, the boys from Oklahoma are faring quite well without Lincoln Riley. This one won’t be close. The Sayer says sooth!: The Reason God Made Oklahoma 41, Jimmy Cracked Corn

Texas-San Antonio (1-1) at #21 Texas (1-1): UTSA probably has dreams of doing to Texas what Happy Appy State did to the Aggies last week. Oh, but that would be sweet for a program that has only been in existence since 2012. UTSA leads the country in sacks with 16. Can they get to Hudson Card enough to spring the upset? It will be close for a half then the Longhorns pull away. The Sayer says Sooth: Texas State of Mind 35, San Antonio Rose 24

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The NCAA may have a reprieve. For now. Athletic directors from around Division I seem to be okay with football remaining under the NCAA umbrella rather. After all these months with calls for the football schools to secede from the only organization in America that can rival the Congress for ineptitude, the football schools are tapping the brakes.

Actually, there are some perfectly good reasons to stay with the NCAA for now. First and foremost, while there is agreement to expand the College Football Playoff to 12 teams, there is no new network contract and a date for the new playoff format hasn’t been set. While everyone wants a 2024 start to the new and expanded CFB, nothing is going to happen until there is a new TV contract. Any change to the current contract has to go through ESPN and all indications are ESPN and the Disney/ABC family of networks want the exclusive to the CFP, but there are media deals that have to be worked out with the Big 12 and Pac-12, both of whom have combo deals with ESPN and Fox. Fox could gum up the works so ESPN may have to concede one of the two conferences to Fox to get the CFP deal done.

Secondly, as much as the need to secede makes sense, the 10 Division I conferences plus Notre Dame have yet to agree on structure and leadership, teensy little matters that have to be resolved before anything moves forward. Would, for example, the Division I schools be content with just football leaving the NCAA or would they eventually want to move all their sports from control of the NCAA? A rule book will have to be written. Who’s going to write it? Where will headquarters be? Who will be the football commissioner and just how much power would the Division I schools be willing to give the commish? Would it be an iron hand a la Pete Rozelle and the NFL from 1960-89? Or would it be a weak commish like MLB’s Rob Manfred, controlled by the league’s heavyweights?

Third, in this era of NIL and coming professionalism of college sports, will it be feasible for college presidents to have the final say in any collegiate sport, much less the financial bell cow? The future of collegiate sports is going to require a businessman and businessmen not academics who make less money and probably have less power than their football coaches.

I’m convinced that there will be a secession that will begin with college football. What I’m unsure of is that football will be the only sport that departs the NCAA, but until there is some sort of structure in place to provide leadership for the future, the NCAA will still be in charge.