Thoughts of the Day: September 2, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

WILL THE FOURTH TIME BE A CHARM?

We've been through this three times since Urban Meyer called it quits in 2010 and each time, Florida fans hoped and prayed that the new guy would deliver on his promises to restore the Gators to championship glory. Will Muschamp was the head coach in waiting at Texas. He grew up in Gainesville and was always Tony Lilly when he and his brothers played backyard football. Jim McElwain promised an offense so good that his dog Clarabelle could light up scoreboards for the Gators. Dan Mullen gave us 29 wins in his first 35 games, then somehow the switches flipped off and meltdown incurred. The Gators are 6-10 in their last 16 games and after three straight New Year’s Six bowl games, they suffered the indignity of losing to UCF in a pre-Christmas bowl game in Tampa. The way UCF fans celebrated that night, you would think that beating the Gators was far more important than their infamous mythical national championship of 2017. It sort of reminded us of how Georgia Southern fans went wild and crazy after beating the Gators in The Swamp in 2013.

Losses like that just can’t happen again and it’s up to Napier to make sure of it. To right the Good Ship Gator he’s brought in in his “army” of analysts and recruiting specialists to implement a rebuild that can get the Gators back to the level they were from 1990-2010 (210-57-1) when they were the winningest college football program in the country. In the 11 years since, Muschamp, McElwain and Mullen have all been responsible for one losing season (Muschamp 2013, McElwain 2017, Mullen 2021). During that time the Gators have gone 87-52, which is tied for the 27th best record in the nation and third in the state behind Florida State (94-46) and UCF (92-47).

Fortunately for Napier, he has a blueprint for plugging the holes in a listing ship left adrift by the previous coach. When he took over at Louisiana in 2018, the Ragin Cajuns were coming off three consecutive losing seasons. He went 7-7 that first year and got Louisiana to the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. The Ragin Cajuns went 33-5 the last three years.

The gap is enormous between football in the Fun Belt at Louisiana and football at Florida in the Southeastern Conference, yet nothing in Napier’s demeanor indicates that he’s the slightest bit overwhelmed by the task at hand. The Gators open the Napier era Saturday night (7 p.m., Ben Hill Griffin Stadium) against No. 7 Utah, last year’s Pac-12 champ and while every preseason magazine and poll has the Utes ranked in the top eight, Florida’s head coach seems unfazed. Oh, he says he’s got jitters, but you’d never know it watching him answer questions with the media.

When he’s standing in front of the media, notebook or note cards in hand, Napier never seems caught by surprise by any questions. His answers are thorough and to the point. Unlike McElwain who wanted us to think that he’s nothing more than an older version of the cool kid in high school who drove the convertible or Mullen, who seemed to have this inherent need to prove he was the smartest guy in the room at all times, Napier comes across like he’s the most well-prepared, well-organized person on the planet. Listen to him and it’s not difficult to believe the Gators will win at least eight games this season, that nine is do-able and 10 not entirely out of the question if injuries are avoided and a break or two can be caught along the way.

So how is all this going to play out Saturday night? It’s going to be 88-89 degrees at game time with humidity somewhere around 80 percent. Just a normal day in paradise if you’ve grown up in Florida. It’s not the heat that will have an adverse affect on the Utes, it’s the combination of heat and humidity. When the Utes leave Salt Lake City today, the temp will be mid-90s but the humidity will be somewhere around 23 percent, drying out to 10 percent in the afternoon.

When the Gators have the football, they’re going to grind it to force Utah into stacking the box, at which point they’ll go over the top. Anthony Richardson won’t carry the ball a lot but when he gets to the edge Utah will be in trouble. Between the tackles, there will be a steady version of Nay’Quan Wright, Montrell Johnson, Trevor Etienne and Lorenzo Lingard. When the Gators throw it, you might be surprised to discover Ricky Pearsall isn’t the only UF receiver with speed enough to get open.

Defensively, expect three things: (1) Florida will have answers for the Utah running game; (2) Patrick Toney running the creeper defense will leave Cameron Rising dazed and confused; and (3) Rising is going to think Brenton Cox Jr. lives in his backfield. This won’t be a Florida blowout win but … The Sayer says sooth!: FLORIDA 24, Utah 17

The SEC Soothsayer

Utah State (0-0) at #1 Alabama: We know we’re just a day away from football in Tuscaloosa because Nick is cranky, complaining about rat poison all because Bama fans are talking about the Texas game and not about Utah State. That may have something to do with Alabama being favored to bushwhack Utah State by 41.5 points. They’re selling beer at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Record amounts will be sold because fans will be bored. The Sayer says sooth!: Sweet Home Alabama 56, Utah State 7

#23 Cincinnati (0-0) at #19 Arkansas: The Cincinnati Kid needs this game. Desperately. For the Bearcats to be thought of as anything more than a one-hit wonder they have to beat what will probably be the only ranked team they’ll play all season. The pressure is all on the Bearcats and not on the Wild Hogs. Fayette Nam will be rocking. The Sayer says sooth!: Ar-Kansas 30, Cincinnati 20

Mercer (1-0) at Auburn (0-0): Some folks are speculating that Utah State AD John Hartwell will be considered as the next Auburn AD. It won’t happen. Hartwell used to work for Allen Greene, the AD the Auburn alums ran out of town. Auburn wants someone who can come in and fire Bryan Harsin if he (a) doesn’t win 10 games and (b) beats Alabama. After Saturday, Harsin will only need nine more wins. The Sayer says sooth!: Auburn 51, Johnny Mercer 10

#11 Oregon (0-0) vs. #3 Georgia (0-0) in Atlanta: Nobody, not even Oregon coach Dan Lanning, wants to beat Georgia worse than Uncle Phil Knight. Uncle Phil has done everything but openly beg the Big Ten to take in the poor Duckies. If Oregon can beat the Poodles in Atlanta, Uncle Phil will burn up the phone lines trying to convince Kevin Warren that Oregon is worthy. Isn’t Bo Nix the Oregon QB? The Sayer says sooth!: Georgia On My Mind 31, Disco Ducks 14

Miami Ohio (0-0) at #20 Kentucky (0-0): Barring a miracle of healing the ten lepers proportions, Mark Stoops will get his 60th win as the head coach. That’s significant because it will tie Bear Bryant as the all-time winningest coach in UK history, a record that has stood since 1953, which tells you how inept the Wildcats have been for most of the last 69 years. The Sayer says sooth!: My Old Kentucky Home 31, Going Back to Miami 10

Memphis (0-0) at Mississippi State (0-0): History tells us that when Mike Leach has the same QB for three years, the third year will produce Star Wars numbers. Will Rogers, who never met a pass he didn’t like to throw, is going to have a monster year. The Sayer says sooth!: More Cowbell Please 38, Graceland State 17

Troy (0-0) at #21 Ole Miss (0-0): Lane Kiffin hasn’t named a starting QB between Jaxson Dart and Luke Altmeyer. You’d think this is the biggest mystery in the state since Billy Joe McCallister threw something off the Tallahatchee Bridge. It really doesn’t matter who starts. The Rebels will win this one by four or more touchdowns. The Sayer says sooth!: Mississippi Kid 42, Helen of Troy 10

Georgia State (0-0) at South Carolina (0-0): Spencer Rattler has had Gamecock fans shagging at Fat Harold’s in Myrtle Beach all summer long. Is it possible the folks who named the rooster mascot – The General – were inspired by General Johnson and the Chairman of the Board who made a beach music hit out of “Carolina Girls”? The Chickens are favored by only 12.5 points, which seems entirely too low considering this time last year draftniks had Rattler as the first player taken in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Sayer says sooth!: Foghorn Leghorn State 37, Downtown Atlanta State 17

Sam Houston (0-0) at #6 Texas A&M (0-0): They do not like Green Eggs and Ham in College Station. They do not like them Sam I Am. The best part of this one will be halftime with the Nationally Famous Fightin’ Texas Aggie Marching Band. The Sayer says sooth!: Aggie War Hymn 50, Sam I Am 10

Elon (0-0) at Vanderbilt (1-0): Gloria Vanderbilt scored only 189 points in 12 games last year. They got 1/3 of that in one swell foop last week against Hawai’i. At least 20,000 fans will venture bravely to the stadium Saturday to see if the Dores can do it again. The Sayer says sooth!: Gloria Vanderbilt 41, Elon Musk 7

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

UTEP (0-1) at #9 Oklahoma (0-0): It’s a new era for the Okies from Muscogee. Jeff Lebby is the offensive coordinator and Dillon Gabriel is the QB so the offense will seem every bit as good as it was last year when Hot Rod Lincoln was the coach. The difference will be the defense. Venables will have the Sooners looking better on that side of the ball than they have in years. The Sayer says sooth!: Okie from Muscogee 45, UTEP 7

Louisiana-Monroe (0-0) at Texas (0-0): Monroe Doctrine, coached astutely by Little Terry Bowden, is in Austin for a cup of coffee and a big paycheck. Sark better deliver the goods or else Longhorn fans won’t be happy. The Sayer says sooth!: The Eyes of Texas 51, Monroe Doctrine 13

Thursday night in the SEC

Tennessee (1-0) 59, Ball State (0-1) 10: Ball State was so bad that even Joe Milton (8-9, 113 yards, 1 TDP; 1-21 rushing) looked good throwing the ball. He didn’t complete a single pass to the other team. The Vols ran for 218 yards and threw for 351. Hendon Hooker threw for two TDs. The Vols travel to Pitt next week.

Missouri (1-0) 52, Louisiana Tech (0-1) 24: This was a bad Lousy Tech team that Mizzou beat. Brady Cook got the start at QB and averaged only 7.3 per pass attempt while completing a pass to the Lousy Tech DBs. If Cook doesn’t look a lot better next week at K-State, a lot of Mizzou folks are going to be demanding Eli Drinkwitz make the switch to Southern Miss/Mississippi State transfer Jack Abraham.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: While we may not see an announcement that the College Football Playoff is expanding to 12 teams following the Board of Managers meeting today, expect an agreement to move toward expansion with a target date of 2024. Intricacies of the agreement may have to be ironed out, but nobody is going to object to a 12-team model. At some point the playoff will expand to 16 teams, but you have to walk before you can run. This is a huge step forward.

It is no coincidence playoff expansion is targeting 2024. That’s when the Big Ten adds UCLA and Southern Cal and its 7-year, multi-billion dollar deal kicks in. It is also likely that Texas and Oklahoma will leave the Big 12 to join the SEC, with a contract renegotiation that will increase the league revenue to $1.5 billion a year from its media deal.

By announcing it is beginning negotiations for a new media deal ahead of its 2025 expiration, the Big 12 is expected to allow Texas and Oklahoma to leave for the SEC, but not without exacting somewhere in the neighborhood of $200-250 in ransom. For that agreement, the Big 12 is likely to get a good – but not great – media rights deal from ESPN that should keep it close to its current $43 million per school level beginning in 2024.

This will be a dagger to the heart of the Pac-12. Washington, Oregon, California and Stanford are unlikely to sign even a short term media deal with the Pac-12 since they expect to be scooped up by the Big Ten. When that happens Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado will join the Big 12 to form a 16-team league. With the Pac-12 ceasing to exist, we’ll be left with four power conferences, Notre Dame and the Group of Five, which could be Group of Four if Conference USA folds its tent.