Thoughts of the day: September 21, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:

In their three games so far this season, the 11th-ranked Tennessee Vols (3-0, 0-0 SEC) have obliterated a pair of teams from the Mighty MAC (Ball State, which is 1-2 with a win over D1AA Murray State; and Akron, which is 1-2 with a win over D1AA St. Francis of PA). In the two D1AA wins, the Vols scored 122 points and allowed 16. The third win is over then 17th-ranked Pittsburgh (now 24th). The Vols won that in overtime, 34-27. It should be noted that before he departed the game late in the first half with an injury, Kedon Slovis threw for 195 yards and a TD. His replacement, Nick Patti, was playing on a bum knee. He was 9-20 for 79 yards and a TD.

The 18th-ranked Florida Gators (2-1, 0-1 SEC) go into Saturday’s game with the Vols in Knoxville 10.5-point underdogs. The folks in Vegas obviously like Tennessee’s offense better than they like a Florida offense that has sputtered the last couple of weeks. The Vols are home, Game Day will be there and Tennessee fans will make sure there isn’t a seat to be had in Neyland Stadium.

On paper, Tennessee should win the game. The Vols have a quarterback who is hitting 69.4 percent of his passes with six TDPs and no interceptions. He will be going against a Florida defense that looked good against Kentucky but bad in the wins over Utah and South Florida. While Hooker is 59-85 for 844 yards (9.9 per attempt), Florida’s Anthony Richardson is 41-77 (52.3 percent) for 423 yards (5.5 per attempt) and no touchdowns with four picks.

The optics are very bad, but games are played on the field where optics don’t always tell the whole story. As good as the Vols look offensively with their Blur Ball offense that is averaging 20.4 seconds between snaps, they haven’t faced a team capable of running the ball and controlling the clock. The Gators will have to do that to win. If you are seeking a ray of hope for Florida, that’s it. UT gives up only 83.33 yards per game on the ground, but neither Ball State or Akron can run the ball and Pitt struggles with consistency. If the Vols can’t get the Gators off the field, then UF has a chance to win this one.

The Vols have great skill players and if they get a quick lead, they’re awfully tough to stop, but don’t forget, strange things happen to the Vols when they play the Gators (Florida 30-13 in 2002 when UF scored 24 second half points in the final 3:20 of the first half; Florida 10-9 in 2014 with 10 points in the fourth quarter; Florida 28-27 in 2015 on a 63-yard Will Grier to Antonio Callaway TDP with 52 seconds left bust Austin Medley missed a 55-yard field goal as time expired; Florida 26-20 in 2017 on the Heave to Cleve, Feleipe Franks’ 63-yard Hail Mary caught by Tyrie Cleveland with no time left).

Tennessee is favored. Based on the optics of what we’ve seen, the Vols should be favored, but optics don’t win games. You shouldn’t count the Gators out just yet.

2023 UF football schedule: September 2 at Utah; September 9 McNeese State; September 16 Tennessee; September 23 Charlotte; September 30 at Kentucky; October 7 Vanderbilt; October 14 at South Carolina; October 28 Georgia (in Jacksonville); November 4 Arkansas; November 11 at LSU; November 18 at Missouri; November 25 Florida State

UF volleyball: Fresh off their road win over last year’s NCAA champ and then 4th-ranked Wisconsin, the 12th-ranked Gators (8-2) open the SEC portion of their schedule at 7 p.m. tonight (SEC Network+) at the O-Dome against Alabama (6-6).

UF softball: The Gators announced their fall exhibition schedule: October 21 Jacksonville; October 23 Florida State; October 26 South Florida; October 28 St. Leo; November 4 at UCF; November 6 North Florida; November 10 College of Central Florida; November 28-December 1 Orange and Blue Series.

UF baseball: Wyatt Langford, Brandon Sproat and Hurston Waldrep were named to the top 20 college baseball prospects in the nation by MLB.com. Langford is the No. 4 prospect after a season in which he hit .355 with 26 home runs, nine doubles, three triples, 63 RBI and seven steals. Sproat, who was drafted with the 90th pick in the MLB Draft by the New York Mets, but he elected to return to UF, where he posted a 9-4 record with a 3.41 ERA and 82 strikeouts in 89-2/3 innings. Sproat is MLB.com’s No. 16 prospect. Waldrep, a third-team All-American at Southern Miss where he was 6-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 140 strikeouts in 90 innings. He is the No. 19 prospect.

UF women’s golf: The Gators are in third place, seven shots behind first place Texas and four behind runner-up Texas A&M in the Mo Morial Invitational in Bryan, Texas. Florida’s Maisie Fuller is in second place at 8-under after two rounds, one shot off the pace by Sophie Guo of Texas.

SEC football

No. 2 Alabama (3-0, 0-0 SEC): Through three games Alabama is -2 in the turnover department. The Tide has picked off one pass and opponents have intercepted three Alabama passes. Another problem stat is sacks.

No. 10 Arkansas (3-0, 1-0 SEC): Led by Alabama transfer Drew Sanders (5 sacks), Arkansas leads both the SEC and the nation in sacks with 17.

Auburn (2-1, 0-0 SEC): It is being reported that starting QB T.J. Finley is out with a shoulder injury for Saturday’s game with Missouri. Finley had one TDP and four interceptions in the first three games. That means Robby Ashford will get the start. The Oregon transfer has thrown one TDP and two picks while rushing for 158 yards.

No. 1 Georgia (3-0, 1-0 SEC): ESPN play-by-play broadcaster Joe Tessitore is complaining that Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012 but Georgia has only played the Aggies once (2019) and that was in Athens. Georgia and Alabama have met only once since 2012 and that was in the COVID year (2020) when Georgia traveled to Tuscaloosa. Georgia won’t play the Aggies or Alabama next year, either.

No. 8 Kentucky (3-0, 1-0 SEC): The Wildcats have the second longest winning streak (7) in the country, trailing only Clemson (9). With Northern Illinois of the Mighty MAC coming to Lexington this weekend you can bet the farm the streak will extend to eight games.

LSU (2-1, 1-0 SEC): The Tigers have to be concerned with all the hits quarterback Jayden Daniels is taking. Through three games he has run 35 times for 225 yards but that includes seven sacks

Mississippi State (2-1, 0-1 SEC): The big concern defensively for Mike Leach has to containing scambling QBs. In the loss to LSU last week the Bulldogs gave up 207 yards, 93 to QB Jayden Daniels.

Missouri (1-2, 0-0 SEC): Mizzou HBC Eli Drinkwitz was the offensive coordinator for Bryan Harsin in 2013 at Arkansas State, then he coached tight ends for Harsin at Boise State in 2014 and was the offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach in 2015.

No. 20 Ole Miss (3-0, 0-0 SEC): The Rebels rank No. 1 in the SEC in rushing at 271.67 yards per game (5.7 per carry with 12 rushing TDs) and No. 5 nationally. Zach Evans is second in the league in rushing at 105.67 yards per game while freshman Quinshon Judkins is third at 96.33 yards per game.

South Carolina (2-1, 0-1 SEC): On a podcast, wide receiver Josh Van criticized the play calling of offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield, saying Satterfield called a play that the Gamecocks had practiced in weeks in a crucial situation last week against Arkansas.

No. 11 Tennessee (3-0, 0-0 SEC): Reece Davis won’t say who the celebrity guest picker will be when Game Day visits Knoxville Saturday, but he did say he thinks Dolly Parton “is unavailable to join us.”

No. 23 Texas A&M (2-1, 0-0 SEC): The Aggies rank dead last in scoring in the Southeastern Conference at 20.7 points per game. Nationally, the Aggies are tied with Texas State for 109th.

Vanderbilt (3-1, 0-0 SEC): The Commodores face Heisman Trophy QB Bryce Young Saturday at Alabama. Young will be throwing against a pass defense that has given up nine touchdown passes while picking off just one pass in four games. The Commodores rank 108th nationally in pass defense.

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

No. 6 Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0 Big 12): The Sooners will likely stack the box against Kansas State this weekend. The Wildcats are averaging 239.33 yards per game (5.52 yards per carry) but only 115.3 passing yards. Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez is averaging only 4.6 yards per pass attempt.

No. 21 Texas (2-1, 0-0 Big 12): Since taking over at QB when Quinn Ewers went down with a shoulder injury, Hudson Card is 39-45 passing for 329 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Ewers was expected to be out until October 8, but he’s healed quicker than expected. There is an outside chance he will get in some snaps against Texas Tech.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: You have to hand it to Pac-12 – soon to be Pac-12 Minus Two – commissioner George Kliavkoff. He’s already lost the financial bell cows of his league (Southern Cal and UCLA) to the Big Ten (plus six when they join in 2024) and both Washington and Oregon have held meetings with Big Ten commish Kevin Warren about joining their cousins from Los Angeles County to share in the bountiful riches of the Fox/CBS/NBC media deal. Yet, when you hear Kliavkoff talk, you would think he’s got his league completely under control.

Speaking to Left Coast football writers John Wilner and John Canzano, Kliavkoff boldly stated, “Listen, I think if schools would have left for the Big Ten they would have left already.”

Kliavkoff is trying to sound like he actually knows what he’s talking about but his league distributed less than $33 million per school last year (SEC led with $56.4 million, Big Ten not far behind). The Fox/CBS/NBC deal will ensure that every school in the Big Ten is receiving somewhere between $90-100 million. When the SEC expands to 16 teams by adding Texas and Oklahoma, the league could very well be distributing more than $100 million per school.

Donkeys may fly before the Pac-12 (Minus Two) distributes even half that. Recently, New York Post sports media writer Andrew Marchand said that negotiations between the Pac-12 and ESPN are currently “hundreds of millions apart. They’re not even close.” Kliavkoff called that nonsense, and said that he believes “the 10 schools will sign a Grant of Rights agreement if we put the right agreement in front of them, which is why we’re spending so much time focused on getting an agreement that will allow all of our schools not just compete but to thrive.”

Kliavkoff sounds like a snake oil salesman, hoping he can convince 10 schools to buy into his pipedream. He may get a deal with ESPN, but it won’t be a killer deal like the one the SEC has and its only attraction will be the Friday night Pac-12 games and late night Saturday. The Big 12 actually has a better chance of landing a decent deal, largely because it can trade Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC a year or two earlier in exchange for a hefty ransom payment and a TV deal that will keep the league near or perhaps a little beyond the current $43 million and change they’re distributing. Even without Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 will have a decent football league and probably the best basketball league in the country.

Still, Kliavkoff clings to the notion that the Pac-12 (Minus Two) will be just fine and may even expand once it gets a media deal in place.

“I don’t feel any sense of urgency at this point,” Kliavkoff said. “No one’s going anywhere. We’re all together. We’re focused on doing this.”

If you’re into wagering on such things, (1) bet a ton that if Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford were offered a chance to join the Big Ten, they would bolt in a heartbeat; and (2) at the first sign that two or all four of those schools seriously open discussions with the Big Ten, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado will be perched on the Big 12 office door, ready to beg their way in rather than go down with the SS Kliavkoff.