Thoughts of the day: September 23, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

HOW MUCH IS THE DISRESPECT CARD WORTH?

Nobody but nobody but nobody seems to think the 18th-ranked Florida Gators (2-1, 0-1 SEC) have much more than a snowball’s chance in hell to beat the 11th-ranked Tennessee Vols (3-0, 0-0 SEC) in Knoxville Saturday. The oddsmakers in Vegas established the Vols as 10-point favorites and some of the talking heads are already hinting that Tennessee wins this one big. Really, really big.

For all practical purposes, this is Tennessee’s Super Bowl and perhaps it should be since the school will have to answer to the NCAA for 18 Level I violations committed by former coach Jeremy Pruitt and his coaching staff. Tennessee wanted Pruitt gone so badly that it essentially turned itself in to the NCAA and tried to fall on the sword in exchange for leniency. The NCAA came back with those 18 Level I violations. Tennessee has until October 20 to offer its response. If it were just two or three Level I violations, the Vols might skate, but 18?

UT fans won’t be thinking about the dangers that lie ahead with the men in blue suits Saturday, however. They’ll be thinking celebrating Tennessee’s second win over the Gators since 2004. They’ll be thinking a top ten ranking when the Associated Press and AFCA Coaches polls come out. They’ll be thinking, “Bring on Bama! Bring on Georgia!” And when Lee Corso picks the Vols, which he is sure to do just before noon, the gathered throng of creamsicle-clad Vol fans will go into such a frenzy that wads of chewing tobacco will be swallowed and Peyton Manning jerseys will be forever stained with dip juice.

Could it play out that way? Of course, it could. The Gators could go up to Knoxville and lay a great big egg, the kind that will have a lot of fair weather Florida fans turning to social media to question the sanity of UF athletic director Scott Stricklin for hiring Billy Napier in the first place.

But, could the Gators do the unthinkable and actually win this game? The answer to that is also, of course, and it might not be such a far-fetched notion. The Gators did blow Tennessee’s doors off last year in Gainesville, after all. When you compare who the Gators have played against who the Vols have played, it’s silly to think UF doesn’t have a chance. Florida has beaten the then 7th-ranked team (now 13th) in the country, lost to the 8th-ranked team (Kentucky), a game they all but gave away, and beaten a South Florida team that is head and shoulders better than two of Tennessee’s victims (Ball State and Akron). Tennessee’s quality win is in overtime against 17th-ranked Pittsburgh, which lost its starting QB in the first half and played the rest of the way with a gimpy second teamer who had one good leg.

Florida has played a tougher schedule, but that’s all in the past. It’s up to the Gators to put it all together on Saturday in front of 100,000 strong at Neyland Stadium. To do it, Billy Napier will need the Gators to play turnover free, limit penalties, throw and complete passes when necessary and run the ball. Run it a lot. Control the clock. Keep that Tennessee offense on the sideline while they grind and grind and grind.

Here are five keys to victory: (1) Anthony Richardson completes enough passes to Ricky Pearsall and Justin Shorter to back the UT safeties off the line of scrimmage; (2) Richardson has to get outside the tackles where he has the option to run or throw; (3) Montrell Johnson Jr., Trevor Etienne and Nay’Quan Wright need to get their carries, plus involve them in the passing game; (4) set the edge so that QB Hendon Hooker and the UT running backs can’t get outside the tackle box; and (5) no turnovers or drive-killing penalties.

So how does it play out? The Sayer says sooth!: FLORIDA 24, Tennessee 21

The SEC Soothsayer

Vanderbilt (3-1, 0-0 SEC) at No. 2 Alabama (3-0, 0-0 SEC): Gloria Vanderbilt carries an exciting one-game winning streak and three pre-October wins into Tuscaloosa. They need to hold on to those memories. The wins were against a bunch of boys. The Commode Dores face grown men Saturday and Bryce Young will re-fuel his Heisman Trophy candidacy. The Sayer says sooth: In Alabama the Tusks are loosa 56, Designer Blue Jeans 7

No. 23 Texas A&M (2-1, 0-0 SEC) vs. No. 10 Arkansas (3-0, 1-0 SEC) at Jerry’s World: Here is the difference between the Aggies and the Razorbacks. The Aggies have no actual football tradition other than a dandy marching band. If Jimbo loses Saturday, they’ll be ready to burn him at the stake and the only Jimbo they will love is the song by Rev. Horton Heat. Arkansas actually has football tradition. If Sam Pittman loses Saturday, they’ll still love him. The Aggies are favored by two for reasons that go beyond logic. The Sayer says sooth!: They like Green Eggs and Ham Sam I Am 24, Sermon on Jimbo 14

Missouri (1-2, 0-0 SEC) at Auburn (2-1, 0-0 SEC): TJ Finley is hurting. Robby Ashford can’t hit a bull in the butt with a bass fiddle from point blank range and Zach Calzada is having surgery. The zany Aubrin fans hate the coach (what else is new?). This sounds like a song written by Hank Williams. Wouldn’t it be a hoot if Bryan Harsin went on a five or six-game win streak? The Sayer says sooth: Why Don’t You Love Me? 28, Misery Index 17

Kent State (1-2) at Georgia (3-0): Sean Lewis spent the week buttering up Georgia, calling the current Poodles the “greatest collection of talent ever assembled.” Perhaps he never heard of the Miami Hurricanes of 2001 that featured 17 NFL first rounders and 21 others who were chosen in the draft. Now, it is a fact that Georgia has more talent on its 2022 roster than there has been on the Kent State roster in its entire 102-year football history. To beat the Poodles Saturday, Kent State players should become hybrids of Clark Kent and The Flash. The Sayer says sooth!: The team that still doesn’t have to play the Aggies in College Station 56, Nick Saban’s alma mater 0

Northern Illinois (1-2) at No. 8 Kentucky (3-0): In their spring 1969 concert at The Rathskeller on the UF campus the infamous band NRBQ (National Rhythm and Blues Quintet) sang their signature “Kentucky Slop Song” with such memorable lyrics as “Got boogers hanging out my nose, got jam in between my toes.” Northern Ill comes to Lexington Saturday to pick up a paycheck. The Huskies will leave feeling like NRBQ wrote that song about them. The only way this one is close is if Mark Stoops dresses out the tuba section of the band in the second half. The Sayer says sooth: Blue Moon of Kentucky 41, Jam between their toes 7

New Mexico (2-1) at LSU (2-1): On the day the NCAA announced it is so mad at LSU football for recruiting violations that it is tacking on a another year of probation for UMass basketball, LSU wide receiver Kashon Boutte announced that he will miss Saturday’s game with the New Mexico Lobo to attend the birth of his child. It’s been like he’s not even there all season. He may be the best deep threat in the SEC but the Brian Kelly offense has him catching 2-inch passes. The Sayer says sooth: Having My Baby 45, You and Me and a Dog Named Boo 7

Bowling Green (1-2) at Mississippi State (2-1): Folks in northern Ohio are still wondering how Scot Loeffler inspired Bowling for Dollars to beat the US Marshall one week removed from Marshall’s win in South Bend. For a minute there they were thinking Urban Meyer was pacing the sidelines at Doyt Perry Stadium once again and the Falcons were dreaming of a title in the Mighty MAC and Cheese. By the time their ears stop ringing from the non-stop cowbells Saturday, the Falcons will feel like one of C.W. McCall’s country classics – “Cow Pattie.” The Sayer says sooth!: The Harvard of Oktibbeha County 45, Bowling for Dollars 10

Tulsa (2-1) at No. 16 Ole Miss (3-0): The Tulsa Golden Hurricane must be proof that we have a climate change crisis. When is the last time a hurricane, much less a golden one, hit Tulsa, which is 632 miles of dry land away from the Gulf of Mexico. When the Hurricane whisk out of Oxford Saturday, they’ll be toting $1.45 million back to the fossil fuel capital of Oklahoma. Maybe by the time this one is over, Lane Kiffin will officially name Jaxson Dart at his starting QB. The Sayer says sooth!: Ode to Billy Joe 42, Living on Tulsa Time 14

Charlotte (1-3) at South Carolina (1-2): Feminists everywhere are pissed with Shane Beamer, who needed Dawn Staley coming to his rescue. The offensive coordinator is under fire from his best wide receiver. Spencer Rattler is as shaky as someone who just missed getting struck by a 7-foot eastern diamondback. Confused? So are the Gamecocks. Fortunately for them they’re playing one of the three worst teams in all of Division I. The Sayer says sooth!: A Little Bit South of North Carolina 37, Charlotte’s Web 14

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

Kansas State (2-1, 0-0 Big 12) at No. 6 Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0 Big 12): This could be billed as the Battle of Tornado Alley since there were 63 tornados in Oklahoma last year and 39 in Kansas. When this one ends the fine folks who represent K-State will be asking Dorothy to click her ruby red slippers together three times while chanting “There’s no place like home! There’s no place like home!” The Sayer says sooth!: Okie from Muscogee 35, Somewhere Over the Rainbow 24

No. 22 Texas (2-1, 0-0 Big 12) at Texas Tech (2-1, 0-0 Big 12): While they’re in Lubbock the Longhorns should pay a visit to the grave of Mac Davis, who crooned, “Oh Lord, It’s Hard to Be Humble (when you’re perfect in every way).” The Longhorns won’t have to be perfect to leave Lubbock with a win, but they better not make many mistakes. The Sayer says sooth!: Texas State of Mind 33, Lubbock or Leave It 31

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Just when George Kliavkoff had some folks on the Left Coast believing he had a functioning brain he declared Thursday that the reason he’s opposed to UCLA leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten is mental health. As in the mental health of UCLA athletes who will have to ride planes coast-to-coast. As in the mental health of the accountants who will have to keep up with paying for charter flights and hotels. Kliavkoff says that all the money UCLA will be getting from that Big Ten contract with Fox, CBS and NBC will be eaten up in travel expenses.

Really. I’m not making this up.

Memo to George Kliavkoff and anyone else who thinks UCLA is stupid to leave for the Big Ten: Starting in 2024 when UCLA and Southern Cal join the Big Ten, all 16 schools in the league will be picking up an end-of-the-year paycheck for something like $100 million. Prior to its $67 million settlement with Under Armour, UCLA had accumulated $102.8 million in athletic department debt. And that was just in the previous three years.

You don’t have to be a mathematical genius to figure out that if you subtract $67 million from the debt and then you start picking up $100 million yearly paychecks you’ll be operating in the black in no time at all. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 doesn’t have a media rights contract beyond 2023 and it’s unlikely to be getting one worth much more than $40-50 million a year no matter if the media deal is with ESPN or Fox or some streaming service.

The only mental health issue here would be if UCLA were to stay in the Pac-12 rather than take the Big Ten deal.