Thoughts of the day: September 27, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning:

THE PLAN WAS TO WIN THE FOOTBALL GAME NOT TRY FOR A TIE AND OVERTIME It turns out there was method to what Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson of CBS plus a whole bunch of other so-called experts called madness Saturday afternoon at Neyland Stadium. In question was Billy Napier’s decision to go for a two-point conversion after the Gators had finished off a 75-yard scoring drive with 4:49 to go in the fourth quarter that cut the Tennessee margin from 17 to 11 points.

Nessler, Danielson and so many others argued that the Gators should have kicked the extra point, which would have made it a 10-point game, so a touchdown, extra point and field goal could have sent the game to overtime. That’s conventional wisdom. The Gators did score another touchdown, but they missed that two-point conversion, too. When UF’s Diwun Black recovered Florida’s onside kick, the Gators were left with only a Hail Mary chance to win, which failed when Anthony Richardson was hit as he threw.

That drew a lot of see I told you so’s from the media and fans alike, but Napier defended his decision at his Monday press conference, pointing out that UF was there to win the football game.

“There are two avenues when you really dig into the number about the approach there,” Napier said. “First of all, you start talking about playing for a tie. Wheh you’re on the road, there’s a slight advantage for a home team in overtime and there’s certainly a bigger advantage when you’re a two-score favorite. I think it’s around 60-63 percent advantage if you’re the home team playing overtime and you’re a two-score favorite. So, that goes into your decision-making and really, all you’re trying to do is declare the path earlier in the game.

“So you go for two there, and if you get it, you’re at nine. Okay, now you’re in a position to win the game with an extra point, whereas if you don’t get it now, you’re still two scores down with an extra opportunity to go for two. So, if you kick it, ultimately, the numbers are going to tell you to go for two anyways at the end of the game anyway to win the game. So you’re just declaring the path quicker, and that gives you a chance to adjust your strategy the rest of the game.”

Follow the logic here. Down 38-27, the Gators got the ball back and drove 71 yards in seven plays, eating 54 seconds off the clock. Florida cut the lead to 38-33 on a three-yard pass from Richardson to Ricky Pearsall. When the Gators went for two, Richardson had Justin Shorter open in the end zone for the conversion that would have put the Gators in position to tie the game with a field goal. Richardson threw but tight end Keon Zipperer didn’t see Shorter along the back line of the end zone. He reached with one hand and deflected the ball away.

“Heck, we tip our own pass there, we get the two-point conversion,” Napier said. “We’re in the right play. We made the right decision.”

Make the two-point conversion there and the strategy in the final 17 seconds certainly would have been different. After Black made a spectacular one-handed grab to secure the onside kick for UF, the Gators would have needed 18 yards to be within proven field goal range of Adam Mihalek to tie the game. In Napier’s way of thinking, that’s when going for the tie would have made sense, but not before.

“This is one of those paths you go down where a lot of people don’t understand but we’re going to make our decision-making off of research and evidence and true facts and numbers,” Napier said. “So it is what it is.”

One last thought here: Napier went for it on fourth down six times during the game. The Gators converted five of them. So, why wouldn’t he have believed the Gators were going to make those two-point conversions? File this loss under the category “Scared money don’t make money.”

SEC football

No. 2 Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC): Alabama’s offensive line will be tested Saturday by an Arkansas pass rush that has sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times, which leads the nation. A year ago Alabama gave up 41 sacks, but so far the Tide has allowed Bryce Young to be sacked only four times … CBS will air the October 8 showdown in Tuscaloosa between Alabama and Texas A&M at 7 p.m.

No. 20 Arkansas (3-1, 1-1 SEC): The Hogs have run for more than 200 yards in every game so far including 244 last week against Texas A&M. Saturday they will be facing an Alabama defense that is fourth in the nation in stopping the run (62.5 yards per game and just 1.84 per carry).

Auburn (3-1, 1-0 SEC): Starting center Tate Johnson will be out 6-8 weeks with an elbow injury that has required surgery. Injured QB TJ Finley, who didn’t play against Missouri, practiced Monday and is day-to-day for Saturday’s game with LSU.

No. 1 Georgia (4-0, 1-0 SEC): Kirby Smart said Monday that he is hopeful injured wide receivers AD Mitchell and Arian Smith will be available to play Saturday when the Bulldogs face Missouri. Smart also hopes D-tackle Jalen Carter will be able to play. He’s played in a limited role the last two games because of a nagging ankle injury … Defensive back Javon Bullard was tested twice for DUI. His blood-alcohol level came back at .143 and .148. The legal limit is .08.

No. 7 Kentucky (4-0, 1-0 SEC): Running back Chris Rodriguez, suspended the first four games because of a DUI arrest, will return Saturday when the Wildcats face No. 14 Ole Miss in Oxford.

LSU (3-1, 1-0 SEC): Arkansas transfer safety Joe Foucha, who sat out the first four games while some academic credit issues were being cleared up, is now eligible to play.

Mississippi State (3-1, 0-1 SEC): Anticipating what he will see from Aggie defensive coordinator DJ Durkin Saturday, HBC Mike Leach said Monday, “A lot of zone.” … Mississippi State has opened up as a 3.5-point favorite over Texas A&M despite the Aggies winning their last two games over ranked opponents.

Missouri (1-3, 0-1 SEC): Freshman Luther Burden, who was the nation’s top 2022 wide receiver recruit, has deleted everything Missouri including all his photos from his Instagram bio. Burden didn’t get a touch in Mizzou’s 17-14 loss to Auburn and has only 10 catches for 78 yards and a TD to go with seven carries for 40 yards and a TD all season.

No. 14 Ole Miss (4-0, 0-0 SEC): Ole Miss hopes to be at full strength against No. 7 Kentucky Saturday in Oxford with running backs Zach Evans and Ulysses Bentley IV healthy along with receiver Jaylon Robinson, defensive tackle JJ Pegues and linebacker Khari Coleman … Their anticipated return may have something to do with the Rebels opening up as a 6.5-point favorite to take down the Wildcats.

South Carolina (2-2, 0-2 SEC): Defensive back Darius Rush and left tackle Dylan Wonnum are questionable for Saturday’s game with South Carolina State.

No. 10 Tennessee (4-0, 1-0 SEC): The win over Florida was essentially the Vols’ Super Bowl since it was only their second win over the Gators in 18 years and just their eighth over the Gators since 1990. Now, Vol fans are talking about making the College Football Playoff. Don’t they still have to play Alabama and Georgia?

No. 17 Texas A&M (3-1, 1-0 SEC): Wide receiver Ainias Smith, the Aggies’ most dynamic playmaker, is done for the season with what is only being described as a serious lower leg injury. Smith had 15 catches for 291 yards and two touchdowns.

Vanderbilt (3-2, 0-1 SEC): With Vanderbilt down 14-3 to Alabama in the second quarter, HBC Clark Lea elected to go for it on fourth-and-one from the Vandy 34. Defending his decision, Lea said, “It’s fourth-and-one and I’m gonna bet on my team. That’s part of our identity. We’re playing to win the game.”

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

No. 18 Oklahoma (3-1, 0-1 Big 12): Addressing the abundance of missed tackles in the Sooners’ 41-34 loss to Kansas State, defensive coordinator Ted Roof said, “We didn’t do a good job at the end of the night. Again, everything that went wrong is my fault. I’ve got to help everybody get that fixed.”

Texas (2-2, 0-1 Big 12): The Longhorns have blown fourth quarter leads in both of their losses including a 14-point giveaway in Saturday’s loss to Texas Tech in Lubbock.

Finebaum says …

On WJOX Monday morning, Paul Finebaum spoke in rather grim terms about both the Auburn and Missouri football programs, but he saved his worst comments for Auburn coach Bryan Harsin:

“I don’t know what I would have done had I been in the stadium in the Auburn section, or even worse, on the Missouri sideline. Listen, there’s nothing else I can add in terms of the ineptitude, but I just came away really depressed about both programs and the future of both programs. To me, the Bryan Harsin conversation has nowhere to go. It’s over for Bryan Harsin. He’s made no compelling argument to keep his job. You can celebrate a win and scream ‘War Eagle’ guys, but watch his coaching during that game. It was sad.”

Football played somewhere beside the SEC

Georgia Tech (1-3, 0-1 ACC): Fired football coach Geoff Collins will have to squeeze by on $11.3 million, which is what Tech is paying him to clear out his office and not coach football. Tech also fired athletic director Todd Stansbury, presumably because he hired Collins and then didn’t fire him after the Yellow Jackets went 3-9 last year.

Texas Tech (3-1, 1-0 Big 12): Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire is a former high school head coach. Seven of his assistant coaches are also former head coaches at the high school level.

The ACC: ACC referees are notorious for their incompetence. The sideline zebra who called offside on a Notre Dame field goal attempt against California, has been suspended. Upon review, there was no offside. Two plays after being given a first down, Notre Dame went on to score a TD and won the game, 24-17.

Middle Tennessee (3-1): Blue Raiders quarterback Chase Cunningham had touchdown passes of 71, 69 and 98 yards against Miami in addition to an 89-yard completion. Cunningham had 408 passing yards on just 16 completions in 25 attempts.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: One-third of Florida’s regular season is in the books and the Gators are 2-2, one win ahead of where many of the talking heads thought the Gators would be back before the season began. Looking back on September, it’s easy to see that the Gators have given away the losses to Kentucky and Tennessee. Of course, the folks at Utah and South Florida are saying the exact same thing. Both of them think the snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

There are eight games remaining in the regular season providing Hurricane Ian doesn’t force postponement of Saturday’s game with Eastern Washington at The Swamp. In a perfect world, the Gators win all eight and finish the regular season 10-2, but this isn’t a perfect world. It might take a miracle of Shadrach, Meshach and Abednego emerging from the fiery furnace without a single hair singed proportions for UF to go 10-2 since LSU, Georgia, (at) Texas A&M and (at) Florida State remain on the schedule.

A 9-3 record is do-able although it’s going to take some road wins to get there. Going 8-4 won’t be easy, but it can be done. If the Gators stop making critical mistakes that give games away, we might be shocked at just how good they are when the regular season concludes.