Thoughts of the Day: September 9, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

PAYBACKS ARE HELL!

A year ago in Lexington, the 10th-ranked Florida Gators all but giftwrapped a 20-13 victory to the Kentucky Wildcats. There is absolutely no way the Gators should have lost that game but stuff happens when you commit 15 penalties, have a blocked field goal returned for a TD and throw an interception that gives your opponent a 29-yard field to work with for the game-winning TD.

What happened in Lexington was the foreshadowing of a meltdown for UF, the beginning of an almost dream season for the Wildcats, who went on score their second 10-win season in four years. It was an embarrassing game for the Gators, who outgained Kentucky 382-224. Post game Dan Mullen did his best Hal Mumme impersonation (Florida beat UK 59-31 in 2000 but Mumme bragged afterward of outgaining the Gators 504-452) when he seemed more pleased that the Gators outgained the Wildcats than he was disappointed that they lost and that UK fans rushed the field.

A year later, the Wildcats come to Gainesville 1-0 and ranked 20th nationally. Having beaten the Gators two of the last four years including 2018 in Gainesville, Kentucky no longer fears Florida but considers itself the football equal.

Tyreak Sapp, who played a key role in Florida’s 29-26 win over then 7th-ranked Utah last Saturday night, didn’t make the trip to Lexington last year when he took a redshirt. Even so, he and every UF player who was on the team in 2021, remembers the fans rushing the field all too well.

“Yeah, of course, you take that personally,” Sapp said Monday. “Of course, you’re gonna take that personal, but you’ve got to understand, you’ve got to guide that motivation and those emotions in the right direction. You can’t be all over the place. You’ve got to have those things in the right spot.”

That is the key to Saturday night when the Wildcats come to The Swamp to face the 12th-ranked Gators. It’s important for the Gators to not only win the game, but let the Wildcats know that there is hell to pay when your fans act like they haven’t been there and done that before. Well, it is Kentucky and it is football, so it’s true they haven’t. Just the same, the Gators need to keep their emotions under control and play disciplined football if they want to start the season 2-0.

Florida wins this game if the Gators avoid stupid penalties, play under control and play a second consecutive turnover-free game. Kentucky probably stacks the box to stop the run which will put a premium on Anthony Richardson finding Ricky Pearsall, Justin Shorter and his other receivers downfield. If UK stacks the box, then UK will be either in a zone or taking its chances in single coverage. If Richardson plays under control and doesn’t try to force things he should be the difference maker.

Paybacks are hell! The Sayer says sooth!: FLORIDA 28, Kentucky 20

The SEC Soothsayer

#1 Alabama (1-0) at Texas (1-0): While Blondie, aka Quinn Ewers was throwing passes last week against Monroe Doctrine, astutely coached by Little Terry Bowden, his Ferrari got towed. Isn’t that a shame? This week he gets to face a real defense and a real coach who isn’t about to let this man with a mullet beat him. This is the Nick Saban Revenge Tour, payback for the indignity of losing not once, but twice last year to former assistants. Steve Sarkisian is a former assistant about to discover that the Tide will come from Alabama with something other than a banjo on its knee. The Sayer says sooth!: Stars Fell on Alabama 41, Texas Two-Step 10

South Carolina (1-0) at #16 Arkansas (1-0): A week ago, Spencer Rattler looked like the guy who lost his starting job at Oklahoma a year ago and not like a QB with a new lease on life and a chance to show he’s still THE guy. Rattler is going to have to drum up the old magic if he intends to beat Arkansas in Fayette Nam where folks think the glory days of Frank Broyles are about to happen once again. The Sayer says sooth!: Sooey State 34, Shagging on Ocean Blvd 20

San Jose State (1-0) at Auburn (1-0): Some folks say Bryan Harsin was dumb to take the Auburn job given those zany alums who bought out Gus Malzahn for more than $21 million. Dumb is in the eye of the beholder. If they fire him after this year – which you can figure they will do if he doesn’t win nine games, one of which is Alabama – they will owe him something like $18 million. Some might suggest go 7-5, take the $18 million and go back to the Left Coast where they will appreciate you. The Sayer says sooth!: Auburn 38, Do You Know the Way to San Jose 10

Samford (1-0) at #2 Georgia (1-0): Chris Hatcher gave Kirby Smart his first coaching job at Valdosta State in 2000, then promoted him to defensive coordinator in 2001. Will Kirby take it easy on his old boss? Doubtful. Highly doubtful. The Sayer says sooth!: Midnight Train to Georgia 63, Samford and Son 0

Southern (1-0) at LSU (0-1): Brian Kelly’s offensive line is a mess and he’s got injuries all up and down the defensive depth chart. Doesn’t matter Saturday but it will soon. Maybe Kelly can show off those slick Tik-Tok dance moves at halftime when Southern University’s Human Juke Box and Dancing Dolls take the field. The Sayer says sooth!: Luziane 37, Real Southern Accents 7

Mississippi State (1-0) at Arizona (1-0): Mike Leach played rugby at BYU and has a law degree from Pepperdine. Arizona coach Jed Fisch was a tennis player in high school who came to Florida to learn coaching football from Steve Spurrier. That has nothing at all to do with Saturday’s football game in Tucson, which Mississippi State should win. The Sayer says sooth!: Mississippi State 42, Arizona Ice Tea 21

Missouri (1-0) at Kansas State (1-0): Lousy Tech ran for a grand total of eight yards on the Mizzou defense. K-State will run for significantly more Saturday afternoon out in the middle of that giant cornfield known as Manhattan, Kansas. Now that he’s somewhere other than Nebraska, Adrian Martinez will look like a QB you can actually win games with. The Sayer says sooth!: Silo Tech 28, Missouri Breaks 17

Central Arkansas (1-0) at #22 Ole Miss (1-0): Central Arkansas is the alma mammy of Mike Norvell, Charlie Strong, Scottie Pippen and James Bridges, who directed “The China Syndrome,” a film about nuclear disasters. This game will feel like nuclear disaster about halftime, when folks leave the stadium to refill tumblers full of Maker’s Mark and branch water in The Grove. The Sayer says Sooth: Ole Miss 56, China Syndrome 10

#24 Tennessee (1-0) at #17 Pittsburgh (1-0): Pat Narduzzi has spent the week doing a rather nifty impersonation of Granny Holtz. You’d think the Tennessee Vols are a mortal lock for the College Football Playoff. The folks in Vegas must see something they don’t like because they only favor the Vols by six. The Sayer says sooth!: Arm Pitt 31, Smokey Mountain School for the Dentally Impaired 30

Appalachian State (0-1) at #6 Texas A&M (1-0): The Mounties scored 40 points in the fourth quarter against North Carolina last week and still lost the game. They won’t score 40 in the whole game against the Aggies, but they could make it interesting if Haynes King can’t get over his nasty little habit of completing passes to the other team. If Haynes isn’t King for a Day in College Station Saturday, watch Jimbo Fisher turn the offense over to Max Johnson, who probably should have been starting from day one. The Sayer says sooth!: Texas A&M 31, Appalachian Trail 14

#23 Wake Forest (1-0) at Vanderbilt (2-0): They’re so excited about football in Nashville that the tailgate crowd has promised to bring extra bottles of chardonnay and white seedless grapes to get ready for Saturday. Meanwhile Wake Forest Gump got good news that Sam Hartman (72 career TDPs) is healthy again, which is why the Demon Deacons are favored by 12.5 points to end Vandy’s long winning streak at two games. The Sayer says sooth!: Wake Forest Gump 37, Gloria Vanderbilt 21

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

Kent State (0-1) at #7 Oklahoma (1-0): This is a paycheck game. Oklahoma is willing to pay $1.8 million just to beat up on the poor Golden Flashes, who couldn’t win this game even if famous alums Nick Saban and Lou Holtz were coaching. The Sayer says sooth!: Okie from Muscogee 52, Clark Kent 7

Dabo gets a new deal Clemson will pay HBC Dabo Swinney $115 million over the next 10 years, making Dabo the highest paid coach in the country in terms of total compensation. Nick Saban’s contract extension at Alabama will average out to $11.7 million per year while Dabo will have to squeeze by on $11.5 million and Georgia’s Kirby Smart $11.2 million. Nick, Dabo and Kirby have combined to win 11 national championships since 2009 and six of the eight in the College Football Playoff era.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The Board of Managers of the College Football Playoff has met again, just a week after agreeing to expand the playoff to 12 teams. Thursday’s meeting focused on moving expansion up to 2024 instead of 2026 when the current contract expires. ESPN, which holds exclusive broadcasting rights to the CFP, has a built-in right of first refusal to any changes in the current contract so if there is a deal made to move expand prior to 2026 then it will have to be with ABC/ESPN/Disney.

It would make sense that ABC/ESPN/Disney would want to wrap up a deal now instead of allowing things to go to a bid in 2026. Additionally, ABC/ESPN/Disney is best equipped to handle an expanded playoff since it has ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPN News, Disney, A&E and Lifetime networks available, plus streaming on Hulu. No other network has this kind of capability.

There are questions that remain to be answered, such as how much money is on the table for broadcast rights, how will the money be distributed to the non-power conferences, how soon after conference championship games will the first playoff games take place and which bowl games will be incorporated into the playoff scenario? These would seem to be easy answers in that there are three football seasons to be played before the first playoff game would take place in 2024, but making this happen requires getting the presidents and athletic directors of 10 current conferences (plus Notre Dame) in agreement and that’s not exactly the easiest thing to do.

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, the single most powerful man in college sports, wouldn’t say that a deal to move the playoff to 2024 is imminent but he did sound optimistic that it could happen. Speaking to Heather Dinich of ESPN, Sankey said, “A lot of work to do, but the opportunity is there.”

One thing that should be noted: Moving the playoff ahead almost certainly assures Texas and Oklahoma will be members of the Southeastern Conference in 2024, coincidentally the same year the new SEC deal with ESPN kicks in. Expect negotiations to move quickly to get Texas and Oklahoma out of their existing deal with the Big 12 and get the Big 12 financially compensated well enough that it is willing to let them go. Part of the financial compensation should be a media deal that will be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million per year per school for every Big 12 member.