Time for a Scared Money Don't Make Money Approach for the Gators

“Scared money don’t make money!”

That was Billy Napier’s motto when he was the coach at Louisiana. Judging by the way he went for it on fourth down his first year on the job at Florida – the Gators went for it 32 times, converted 15 – Napier wasn’t afraid to go down in flames. Through nine games, the Gators are 7-17 on fourth down this year. The only game when fourth down gambles (3-4) paid off was the comeback from 10 down to win at South Carolina.

The Gators were 0-2 on fourth down against Georgia and both times it led to the Bulldogs hanging points on the Florida beleaguered defense.

It isn’t just going for it on fourth down that seems to be a problem, it’s the very conservative nature of the offense. The Gators have a receiver in Ricky Pearsall who is basically uncoverable. UF has a quarterback in Graham Mertz who has 17 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. You have to wonder how effective the Mertz-to-Pearsall combination could be if the UF offensive line could hold the pass rush a split second longer to allow Mertz to go vertical more often.

In Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne, the Gators have two very explosive running backs. Both can break tackles, both have an extra breakaway gear, both can pass block and both are effective pass receivers. So how many times have they been on the field at the same time? Nobody runs two-back sets anymore and few teams have two backs as talented as these two. Defenses might have all sorts of problems adjusting.

The first half of the season, the Florida defense was playing very well but starting with the Kentucky game (Wildcats ran for 329 yards, 280 by Ray Davis), Florida’s defense has been in a tailspin. The Gators don’t get turnovers and they rarely sack the opposing QB. Is it time to take a page out of the Joe Lee Dunn exotic defense playbook and do something no one has had a chance to prepare for?

It is worth mentioning Mertz-to-Pearsall, Montrell and Etienne in the same backfield, and the defense in a tailspin ahead of Saturday night’s game in Death Valley against 18th-ranked LSU (6-3, 4-2 SEC). The Gators are 15.5-point underdogs and apparently Jayden Daniels has passed concussion protocol, so he’s the probable starter at QB. His stats – 2,792 passing yards for 27 TDs; 684 rushing yards for six more TDs – are off the charts good and the main reason LSU has the No. 1 offense (544.6 yards per game) in the country and the SEC’s top scoring offense (45.2 points per game).

How do the Gators spring an upset on a team with an almost unstoppable QB that routinely lights up scoreboards? Maybe it’s time for Napier to throw conservative thought out the window and go “scared money don’t make money” on both sides of the ball. LSU’s defense ranks 12th in the SEC both in yards allowed per game and points per game. The Tigers give up chunk plays by the bushels (68 plays of 20 or more yards) so getting stops has been an issue.

The only thing that has saved LSU is Daniels, who gets the Tigers on the scoreboard whether it’s with his arm or his legs.

Florida’s inability to stop Daniels last year and its problems getting stops the last four games should grab the UF coaching staff by the lapels and shake them into going with something brand new because what they’ve been doing hasn’t worked.

The Gators have the athletes who can move the football if the O-line can block someone effectively. Why not take more shots downfield? Why not give a brand new look with something like a 2-back set?

Why not try to force LSU to win in shootout form with the offense while trying something brand new defensively with the hope of throwing the Tigers off schedule just enough for the Gators to have an extra shot at scoring?

Why not? After all, scared money don’t make money and right now the Gators need to throw the kitchen sink at LSU or else they will be buried. If they don’t try something brand new, the Gators might need a miracle of changing the water into wine proportions to spring an upset. The Sayer says sooth!: LSU 45, Florida 35

The SEC Soothsayer

No. 10 Ole Miss (8-1, 5-1 SEC) at No. 1 Georgia (9-0, 6-0 SEC): The Lane Train rolls into Athens looking for the signature win that has eluded the Rebels the last three years. The Rebels have the best offense Georgia has seen since the Bulldogs beat Ohio State in last year’s College Football Playoff semifinals. For Ole Miss to spring the upset, it has to get the running game going with Quinshon Judkins and its pass rush has to get in the face of Georgia QB Carson Beck. Georgia has to be motivated by the need to run the regular season table. If the Bulldogs are 12-0 in the regular season then lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, there is every good chance the Bulldogs will still make the playoff. Lose to Ole Miss and then lose in Atlanta, and a three-peat has been quashed. So, it’s Lane Kiffin’s offense against Will Muschamp’s defense. The people in Vegas like Muschamp’s defense because Georgia is 10.5-point favorites. It might be closer than that, but the game’s in Athens where Georgia has won its last 25 games. The Sayer says sooth!: Georgia 31, Ole Miss 24

No. 8 Alabama (8-1, 6-0 SEC) at Kentucky (6-3, 3-3 SEC): Most people don’t know that until a year ago, Bear Bryant was the winningest coach in Kentucky history. It took Mark Stoops 10 years to surpass Bear’s 60 wins. Bear had a good thing going at Kentucky until they gave Adolph Rupp a new Cadillac convertible after a year when UK basketball had the death penalty. Bear Bryant got an engraved cigarette lighter at the same ceremony. Bear left UK after the 1953 season and Kentucky football hasn’t been the same since, even with Stoops turning the Wildcats into the usual hosts of the Music City Bowl. Alabama is favored by 11. The only way it will be that close is if Alabama takes the Wildcats lightly. If they show up ready to play, it will get ugly early. The Sayer says sooth!: Alabama 35, Kentucky 17

No. 14 Tennessee (7-2, 3-2 SEC) at No. 16 Missouri (7-2, 3-2 SEC): Missouri has lost the only games it has played against ranked teams this year although the Tigers were in it until the bitter end with both LSU and Georgia. Along comes Tennessee, which can dominate games on both sides of the line of scrimmage. That’s what it will take for the Vols to score the win over Mizzou. The Vols have to run the ball and they have to figure out a way to stuff Cody Shrader, who ran for an impressive 112 yards on Georgia’s vaunted defense last week in Athens. What Tennessee can’t afford is for this game to be in Joe Milton’s hands. That has to be one-half of Missouri’s strategy – make Joe Milton win the game with his arm. The other half has to be give quarterback Brady Cook time to throw the football, no easy task since Tennessee has gotten to the quarterback 30 times already. The Vols are a 2-point favorite. They will win this one unless they’ve got Georgia on their minds (next week in Knoxville). The Sayer says sooth!: Tennessee 27, Missouri 24

Mississippi State (4-5, 1-5 SEC) at Texas A&M (5-4, 3-3 SEC): This could be the Dead Man Walking Bowl as in whoever loses probably gets fired. Jimbo Fisher might get fired even if he wins, but no doubt about it if the Aggies lose to Mississippi State. If Mike Leach were still alive and the Bulldogs were still running the Air Raid, Mississippi State would have more than a fighting chance. Leach passed away and Zach Arnett replaced the Air Raid with something that isn’t working. This is his first year on the job and fans are disgruntled. The buyout is only $4.5 million. If he could spring the upset there’s a really good chance MSU goes bowling, which would rip to shreds any plans the boosters have for a new coach next year. As for Jimbo, he’s lost four games, the Bobby Petrino experiment isn’t working well, and the boosters are already taking long looks at Dabo, the Lane Train and Kansas coach Lance Leipold. The Aggies are favored by 17. They’ll cover and the not if but when Jimbo goes suspense will continue to mount. The Sayer says sooth!: Texas A&M 35, Mississippi State 14

Auburn (5-4, 2-4 SEC) at Arkansas (3-6, 1-5 SEC): After beating Florida last week in Gainesville, Arkansas people think Sam Pittman has the Hogs ready to run the November table for a bowl game. If Sam can get KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders running the football like they did last week against the Gators, it’s possible with Auburn, Florida International and Missouri all at home to close out the season. Auburn, meanwhile, only needs one more win to go bowling. Since Alabama is the last game of the year, the Tigers either have to win this week or next week against New Mexico State to get to six wins. Arkansas is a better team than either of the two Auburn has beaten in the previous two weeks and the Hogs are favored by two at home. It’s going to be white knuckles, but Arkansas gets it done. The Sayer says sooth!: Arkansas 24, Auburn 20

Vanderbilt (2-8, 0-6 SEC) at South Carolina (3-6, 1-5 SEC): Perhaps this should be dubbed as the Two Steps Backward Bowl because both Vanderbilt and South Carolina were expected to be improved in 2023. Instead, Vandy has lost eight straight games and is once again everybody’s favorite homecoming opponent. Some were predicting the Gamecocks would challenge for second place in the SEC East, but their inability to protect Spencer Rattler has been their undoing. Rattler has gone down 37 times, which ranks 126th nationally. Fortunately, for South Carolina, Vanderbilt’s pass rush is relatively weak, so Rattler should light up the Commodores. The Gamecocks are favored by 14. They’ll cover. The Sayer says sooth!: South Carolina 38, Vanderbilt 20