What to do about Billy? A double dilemma for the Florida Gators

If UF terminates Billy Napier when will it happen and who will replace him (Photo by Chris Spears)

Dilemma: A situation that requires a choice between options that are or seem equally unfavorable or unsatisfactory.

This is what we have at the University of Florida when it comes to Billy Napier and the football program. We have a football coach – Billy Napier – that everyone agrees is a nice, high character man who has transformed the locker room culture but hasn’t transformed the football team into one that wins on the field. We also have boosters and a fan base that have given up on the hope that Napier can turn the Gators around. Eight straight losses to Division I teams will do that to you.

Napier believes he can still win at Florida. As of Wednesday night at his midweek press conference, Napier was planning to take the Gators to Starkville to face Mississippi State. He still sees a pathway to a fourth year on the job at UF.

That’s in contrast to both boosters and a large chunk of the fan base who not only want him gone but wonder why he wasn’t fired last Saturday when the Gators were clocked by Texas A&M. It wasn’t just the loss to the Aggies that got the boosters and fans riled. It was the way the Gators lost. It was too much like too many losses the previous two seasons. Everyone bought into an improved team in 2024 but if they’ve taken one step forward, it seems they’ve taken two steps backward.

Hence the dilemma for the higher ups at Florida who ultimately make the tough decisions: Do you placate the people who write the big checks by canning Napier as soon as possible or do you play the waiting game, knowing that as bad as things seem now, they could get worse, or Napier can rally the team to win five more games to make the Gators bowl eligible?

The Gators 5.5-point favorites to get their first Division I win since October 14, 2023 (41-39 over South Carolina) Saturday at Mississippi State. Then there is a bye week followed by UCF at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. It is entirely possible the Gators win the next two games which would put them halfway toward bowl eligibility. Losing to Mississippi State would seem to make firing Napier an easy decision since the Bulldogs are considered in worse shape than the Gators and there is a free week to get the coaching situation in order to get through the last eight games. Winning in Starkville, however, adds to the dilemma. Do you fire a coach after he’s won knowing that he has a bye week to get ready for another game that he’s capable of winning?

The optics after winning two in a row would seem to tilt things favorably for Napier, especially if the higher ups have decided to wait it out to see if he can get the Gators bowl eligible. But even if the Gators win the next two, the optics of the next six games provide an abysmal outlook – at No. 6 Tennessee; Kentucky, which had Georgia on the ropes; No. 2 Georgia in Jacksonville; at No. 1 Texas; No. 16 LSU and No. 5 Ole Miss.  

If the Gators could reach out and touch bowl eligibility after that stretch of games would it prove to those intent on seeing him fired that he’s got the team on the right track? On the other hand, if there is a serious beatdown in Knoxville followed by a loss to Kentucky, it would create a firestorm among the boosters certain to bring up that old quote from Jeremy Foley: “What should be done eventually must be done immediately.”

So the Florida administration finds itself in the midst of a dilemma for which there is no satisfactory solution. Few will argue that Napier can’t and won’t be long for this job and that it is a matter of when not if he’s gone, but do you do it now or do you wait? The dilemma is when to pink slip him and move on.

That leads to Florida’s second dilemma and this one might make the first one seem like a problem easily solved by the best and brightest in a Romper Room classroom. When Napier goes, a new coach will be required, one who can reverse the downward spiral the Gators have been in since Marco Wilson chunked a shoe against LSU in 2020. Since then, Florida is 18-25 overall, 11-23 against teams from power conferences. Napier is 12-16 overall, 8-15 against teams from power conferences. But who to hire?

There are calls to back a Brinks Truck up in Urban Meyer’s driveway on Longboat Key and make him a Godfather offer, but Meyer says that ship has sailed. He doesn’t want to coach again and deal with a transfer portal that combined with NIL would kneecap him. He’s a bit too old school for today’s players who are too eager to bolt for the highest bidder. Also, he loves living in Sarasota where he can cruise out into the Gulf on his 38-foot Sea Ray. He gets his football fix on weekends at Fox, a well-paying gig that keeps him involved in the game while still allowing the time with Shelley, kids and grandkids.

Barring a miracle of burning bush proportions, scratch Meyer off the list of potential replacements.

Next on the list and the people’s choice is Lane Kiffin, who wears a visor because Spurrier was his coaching idol when he was coming up through the ranks. Lane’s wife is the former Layla Reaves, daughter of Gator great John Reaves. Florida has always been his dream job but there is this teensy little problem – Ole Miss. Kiffin has turned Ole Miss into a legitimate national power whose 2024 schedule gives him a realistic chance to not just win the Southeastern Conference championship but make a deep run in the College Football Playoff. The Rebels don’t have to play Texas, Tennessee or Missouri in the regular season and they get Georgia at home.

Here are the important dates to remember when considering the possibility Lane Kiffin would come to Florida. December 4 is the start of the early signing period, three days ahead of the Southeastern Conference Championship Game. If Ole Miss goes 11-1, which is entirely possible then the Rebels will almost certainly be in Atlanta December 7. If the Rebels win 10 games they are a lock for the CFP which begins on December 20. The quarter-finals are New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day with semifinals set January 9-10 and the championship game on January 20.

If the Rebels lose three games in the regular season, there is a real chance Kiffin will be available. Lose two or fewer and he’s in the playoff.

Two things to consider: (1) There is no way Lane Kiffin will walk out on his team if Ole Miss is in the playoff; and (2) the early signing period is a problem for Florida, which could whiff completely on a recruiting class if there isn’t a head coach in place prior to December 4.

On the assumption Lane Kiffin won’t be available and Florida is determined to hire a head coach who is enjoying success at a power conference program, the list narrows. There are good coaches out there, but which ones would leave a successful program to pick up the pieces at Florida, which will have gone through four head coaches since Meyer walked away from the UF job in 2010?

Here are a few names that seem to meet the criterion of success at a power conference program:

James Franklin, Penn State: He is 52 years old with a career record of 114-54 overall, 90-39 at Penn State where he has four 11-win seasons and one Big Ten championship. He has a salary of $8.5 million, buyout of $2 million. At Vanderbilt, he went to three bowl games in three years with back-to-back 9-win seasons, unheard of at Vandy. Penn State is currently 2-0 and ranked 10th. The schedule says 10-2 or better.

Jeff Brohm, Louisville: Brohm is 53, coaching at his alma mater where he is 12-4 with a $5.555 million salary. His buyout is only $1 million. The Cardinals are currently 2-0 and ranked 19th. Prior to Louisville, Brohm won two Conference USA championships at Western Kentucky (30-10 record), then went 36-34 at Purdue where he won a Big Ten West title. Louisville has road trips to Notre Dame, Boston College, Clemson and Kentucky remaining on the schedule with a home game against Miami.

Chris Klieman, Kansas State: Klieman is 57 years old and in his sixth season at K-State where he’s paid, $4.75 million with a $6 million buyout. Klieman is 42-24 at K-State where the Wildcats are currently ranked 13th. Klieman came to K-State after winning four D1AA national championships at North Dakota State where he compiled a 69-6 record. Klieman won the 2022 Big 12 championship. The Wildcats have games remaining on their schedule at BYU and Iowa State and home games with Kansas and Oklahoma State.

Lance Leipold, Kansas: Leipold is 60 and in his fourth season at Kansas where he makes $5.75 million with a $6 million buyout. When he took over, KU was the worst program in college football but he’s 18-23 (9-4 last year) and has taken the Jayhawks to consecutive bowl games. Leipold was 109-6 with six DIII national championships at Wisconsin-Whitewater. He turned the program around at Buffalo where he went 37-33. At Kansas this year, the Jayhawks are 1-2 with the two losses by a combined nine points. Among the games remaining on the schedule are road trips to Kanbsas State and Brigham Young and a home game with Iowa State.

Rhett Lashlee, SMU: As a high school quarterback, his coach was Gus Malzahn. He is 41 years old and in his third year as the head coach at SMU, where he is paid $3.5 million. As an assistant he was Malzahn’s GA at Auburn, worked for Gus at Arkansas State and again at Auburn, and was the offensive coordinator at Miami under Manny Diaz and at SMU under Sonny Dykes. He is 20-10 at SMU including an 11-3 record last season when he won the American Athletic Conference title. SMU is a new member of the ACC this year.

Jedd Fisch, Washington: Fisch is a 48-year-old graduate of the University of Florida and former Steve Spurrier graduate assistant (1999-2000), whose salary at Washington is $7.7 million with a $10 million buyout. At UF his roomie was Howie Rosenbaum, the general manager of the Philadelphia Eagles. Fisch has worked as a college assistant for Jim Harbaugh and Jim Mora Jr. In the NFL, he’s worked for Mike Shanahan, Sean McVay and Bill Belichick. He is 19-22 as a college head coach. He turned around a dreadful Arizona program in three years, winning 10 games in 2023. He was Kalen DeBoer’s successor at Washington.

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State: Gundy is 57 and in his 20th season as the head coach at Oklahoma State where he is 169-79 with one Big 12 championship. Gundy, a former Oklahoma State quarterback during his playing days, is paid $7.675 million. The Cowboys are currently ranked 14th nationally with a schedule that should result in 10 or 11 wins. Gundy offenses have averaged 400 or more yards in 18 of his previous 19 seasons.

Matt Campbell, Iowa State: The Cyclones are currently 20th-ranked under Campbell, who is paid $4 million and has an approximate $7 million buyout. Campbell is 44 years old, 55-48 and in his ninth year at Iowa State. He’s 90-63 for his career. As a player at Mount Union, Campbell was a starter on four DIII national championship teams. He won two more national championships at Mount Union as an assistant.